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IHME extiende los pronósticos para la COVID-19 para el 1 de junio, y predice más de 3,5 millones de muertes en todo el mundo
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News provided by

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Feb 05, 2021, 17:42 ET

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El despliegue rápido de la vacunación y el uso de mascarillas son cruciales para controlar la propagación

SEATTLE, 5 de febrero de 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Los últimos pronósticos para la COVID-19 del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) de la Escuela de Medicina de la Universidad de Washington predicen más de 3,5 millones de muertes a nivel mundial para el 1 de junio.

Se estima que en los Estados Unidos el número de muertes para el 1 de junio sea de 631.000. Aumentar el uso de tapabocas al 95 % en los Estados Unidos podría salvar 44.000 vidas desde este momento hasta el 1 de junio.

"Existen serias preocupaciones de que, con la propagación de las variantes de la COVID-19, lograr la inmunidad masiva necesaria para dar por terminada la pandemia podría ser difícil, si no imposible", afirmó el Dr. Christopher Murray, director de IHME. "Es posible que logremos controlar la COVID-19 si seguimos enfocándonos en las estrategias que pueden mantener bajas las tasas de transmisión (evitar aglomeraciones, usar mascarillas, entre otras medidas) mientras trabajamos en vacunar la mayor cantidad de personas que podamos".

"Las variantes emergentes de la COVID-19 nos dejan ver más elementos sobre la efectividad de las vacunas, así como sobre la fortaleza de la inmunidad natural derivada de infecciones previas", comentó Murray. "Estamos monitoreando de cerca los resultados de los ensayos clínicos ya que los nuevos hallazgos podrían relacionarse de forma significativa con la trayectoria de la pandemia, algo que reflejaremos en nuestro modelo".

"Si bien las infecciones previas pueden no ser efectivas para detener la transmisión de las variantes emergentes, existen claros indicadores de que las vacunas aun podrán prevenir entre la mitad y dos tercios de los casos graves y las muertes asociadas a dichas variantes", señaló Murray.

Se espera que entre hoy y el 1 de junio, 110 países enfrenten niveles de estrés altos o extremos en sus unidades de cuidados intensivos debido a la COVID-19. Si las personas vacunadas retornan a su nivel normal de movilidad, 17 estados de los Estados Unidos y 13 países de Europa podrían observar un incremento en las muertes diarias durante abril y mayo.

Las proyecciones del IHME se basan en un modelo epidemiológico que incluye datos sobre casos, muertes y prevalencia de anticuerpos, al igual que aspectos geográficamente específicos de tasas de pruebas COVID-19, despliegue de vacunas, movilidad, normas de distanciamiento social, uso de mascarillas, densidad de población y estructura etaria, y estacionalidad de la neumonía, la cual muestra una fuerte correlación con la trayectoria de la COVID-19.

Las nuevas proyecciones para todos los países están disponibles en https://covid19.healthdata.org/.

Acerca del Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

El Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) es una organización global independiente de investigación en salud ubicada en la Escuela de Medicina de la Universidad de Washington, la cual ofrece mediciones rigurosas y comparables de los problemas de salud más importantes del mundo, y evalúa las estrategias que se implementan para enfrentarlos. El IHME está comprometido con la transparencia, y ofrece esta información con amplia disponibilidad a fin de que los legisladores puedan contar con las evidencias que requieren para tomar decisiones fundamentadas para la asignación de recursos para mejorar la salud de las personas.

Logotipo: https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1156878/IHME_Logo.jpg

FUENTE Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Related Links

http://www.healthdata.org/

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