More than One in 10 Homeowners Underwater as Housing Market Nears Full Recovery
Rising home values are freeing homeowners from negative equity, allowing them to re-enter the market, but 11 percent of homeowners remain upside-down
- Nationally, the negative equity rate fell to 10.9 percent in the third quarter, down from 13.4 percent a year ago.
- Western metros have the lowest rates of negative equity.
- 26.1 percent of homeowners with a mortgage have less than 20 percent equity in their homes, or are in effective negative equity.
SEATTLE, Dec. 15, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Even as home values approach the highest levels reached during the housing bubble, 11 percent of homeowners with a mortgage are underwater, according to the third quarter Zillow® Negative Equity Reporti.
The share of homeowners who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth has dropped by nearly two-thirds since the housing bubble burst four years ago. Nationally 5.3 million homeowners were in negative equity in the third quarter, meaning they owe more than their homes are worth. At the peak in Q1 2012, 15.7 million homeowners were underwater on their mortgages.
The numbers are another sign that the housing market has nearly regained the value lost during the recession, and is only 2.7 percent below the peak reached at the height of the bubble. Not all regions have experienced the same recovery, though, and some markets are still well below those bubble highs.
Underwater homeowners can't refinance to take advantage of still-low mortgage rates and they can't sell their homes except in short sales, which keeps these homes off the market, contributing to low inventory.
Seven of the 10 large metros with the lowest rates of negative equity are along the West Coast, and also have strong economic markets. Fewer than five percent of homeowners are underwater in San Jose, San Francisco, Portland, Ore., Denver, and Dallas. In these metros, home values have also surpassed the highest point reached during the bubble, and are now higher than ever.
Chicago and Las Vegas have the highest levels of negative equity, with 17 percent and 16.8 percent of homeowners underwater respectively. Home values in these markets remain well below their peak levels.
"As the housing market recovers and home values rise, the number of homeowners underwater on their mortgages continues to drop," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. "In addition to the individual homeowners who are underwater, negative equity affects the housing market as a whole, so this is good news not only for these owners, who are now able to either sell their home or at least regain some financial stability, but also for buyers who may find more options now. I expect homes will gain value steadily, for solid economic reasons, and that negative equity rates will continue to fall."
Homeowners who have less than 20 percent equity in their homes may find it difficult to cover the associated costs of selling, such as agent fees, closing costs, and a new down payment if they are buying a new home. More than a quarter of homeowners with a mortgage are in this situation, known as effective negative equity.
| Metropolitan Area |
Percent of |
Total Amount |
Number of |
Effective |
| United States |
10.9% |
$479 billion |
5,269,166 |
26.1% |
| New York/Northern New Jersey |
10.0% |
$40 billion |
250,842 |
21.5% |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA |
5.7% |
$18.8 billion |
90,452 |
14.0% |
| Chicago, IL |
17.0% |
$29.8 billion |
277,867 |
33.5% |
| Dallas-Fort Worth, TX |
4.4% |
$5 billion |
44,998 |
12.7% |
| Philadelphia, PA |
11.8% |
$10.7 billion |
124,492 |
29.4% |
| Houston, TX |
6.9% |
$6.1 billion |
59,000 |
19.4% |
| Washington, DC |
12.4% |
$19.9 billion |
136,068 |
30.5% |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL |
10.6% |
$9.8 billion |
88,840 |
21.1% |
| Atlanta, GA |
13.0% |
$10.8 billion |
127,592 |
30.3% |
| Boston, MA |
6.2% |
$7.9 billion |
49,005 |
14.3% |
| San Francisco, CA |
3.7% |
$5.9 billion |
24,224 |
8.9% |
| Detroit, MI |
12.2% |
$5.8 billion |
93,270 |
24.0% |
| Riverside, CA |
10.5% |
$8.3 billion |
65,609 |
26.3% |
| Phoenix, AZ |
11.2% |
$9.1 billion |
79,519 |
29.6% |
| Seattle, WA |
6.6% |
$6.8 billion |
41,667 |
17.2% |
| Minneapolis-St Paul, MN |
7.3% |
$5 billion |
48,956 |
22.4% |
| San Diego, CA |
6.3% |
$4.9 billion |
27,452 |
18.1% |
| St. Louis, MO |
12.6% |
$4.2 billion |
66,607 |
30.8% |
| Tampa, FL |
10.5% |
$3.6 billion |
48,764 |
24.9% |
| Baltimore, MD |
14.4% |
$7.9 billion |
73,895 |
34.4% |
| Denver, CO |
4.4% |
$3.3 billion |
22,326 |
11.9% |
| Pittsburgh, PA |
8.1% |
$2.2 billion |
33,395 |
19.8% |
| Portland, OR |
3.8% |
$2.1 billion |
15,152 |
11.7% |
| Charlotte, NC |
8.1% |
$3.6 billion |
34,268 |
24.2% |
| Sacramento, CA |
7.6% |
$3.6 billion |
27,123 |
20.9% |
| San Antonio, TX |
10.2% |
$2.9 billion |
30,933 |
28.3% |
| Orlando, FL |
11.4% |
$3.3 billion |
39,743 |
27.0% |
| Cincinnati, OH |
10.8% |
$3.1 billion |
43,385 |
29.6% |
| Cleveland, OH |
14.6% |
$3.3 billion |
55,547 |
31.1% |
| Kansas City, MO |
12.4% |
$3 billion |
44,646 |
33.1% |
| Las Vegas, NV |
16.8% |
$5 billion |
49,809 |
36.8% |
| Columbus, OH |
9.0% |
$2.7 billion |
31,314 |
24.1% |
| Indianapolis, IN |
12.8% |
$3 billion |
46,772 |
33.9% |
| San Jose, CA |
2.6% |
$1.9 billion |
6,905 |
6.4% |
| Austin, TX |
6.6% |
$2.2 billion |
18,383 |
18.6% |
Zillow
Zillow® is the leading real estate and rental marketplace dedicated to empowering consumers with data, inspiration and knowledge around the place they call home, and connecting them with the best local professionals who can help. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow's Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. Dr. Gudell and her team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. Zillow also sponsors the bi-annual Zillow Housing Confidence Index (ZHCI) which measures consumer confidence in local housing markets, both currently and over time. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group (NASDAQ:Z and ZG), and headquartered in Seattle.
Zillow is a registered trademark of Zillow, Inc.
i The data in the Zillow Negative Equity Report incorporates mortgage data from TransUnion, a global leader in credit and information management, to calculate various statistics. The report includes, but is not limited to, negative equity, loan-to-value ratios, and delinquency rates. To calculate negative equity, the estimated value of a home is matched to all outstanding mortgage debt and lines of credit associated with the home, including home equity lines of credit and home equity loans. All personally identifying information ("PII") is removed from the data by TransUnion before delivery to Zillow. Overall, this report covers more than 870 metros, 2,400 counties, and 23,000 ZIP codes across the nation.
SOURCE Zillow
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