Most Texas Job Growth Went to Immigrants

81% of Increase 2007-11 Went to New Foreign Workers

WASHINGTON, Sept. 22, 2011 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new report by the Center for Immigration Studies examines job growth in Texas. Gov. Rick Perry has pointed to increased employment in Texas during the current economic downturn as one of his main accomplishments. Analysis of the Current Population Survey (CPS) collected by the Census Bureau shows immigrants (legal and illegal) have been the primary beneficiaries of this growth since 2007, and not native-born workers. This is true even though the native-born accounted for the vast majority of growth in the working-age population (age 16 to 65) in Texas.

The report is online at http://cis.org/immigrants-filled-most-new-jobs-in-Texas. Key findings:

• Of jobs created in Texas since 2007, 81 percent were taken by newly arrived foreign workers (legal and illegal).

• In terms of numbers, between the second quarter of 2007, right before the recession began, and the second quarter of 2011, total employment in Texas increased by 279,000. Of this, 225,000 jobs went to immigrants (legal and illegal) who arrived in the United States in 2007 or later.

• Of newly arrived immigrants who took a job in Texas, 93 percent were not U.S. citizens. Thus government data shows that more than three-fourths of job growth in Texas went to newly arrived non-citizens (legal and illegal).

• The large share of job growth that went to immigrants is surprising because the native-born accounted for 69 percent of the growth in Texas' working age population (16 to 65). Thus even though natives made up most of the growth in potential workers, most of the job growth went to immigrants.

• The share of the working-age natives holding a job in Texas declined significantly from 71 percent in 2007 to 67 percent in 2011. This decline is very similar to the decline for natives in the United States as a whole and is an indication that the situation for native-born workers in Texas is very similar to the overall situation in the country despite the state's job growth.

• Of newly arrived immigrants who took jobs in Texas since 2007, we estimated that 50 percent (113,000) were illegal immigrants. Thus about 40 percent of all the job growth in Texas since 2007 went to newly arrived illegal immigrants and 40 percent went to newly arrived legal immigrants.

• Immigrants took jobs across the educational distribution. Of newly arrived immigrants who took a job in Texas, more than one-third (97,000) had at least some college.

• These numbers raise the question of whether it makes sense to continue the current high level of legal immigration and also whether to continue to tolerate illegal immigration.

Discussion: As Republicans go through the process of selecting their party's nominee, job growth in Texas during the current economic downturn has been the subject of much discussion. GOP frontrunner Perry has argued that he has a proven record of job creation in his state, even during the current economic downturn. It is true that Texas is one of the only states where the number of people working has increased during the recession. What has not been acknowledged is that immigrants have been the primary beneficiaries of this job growth, not native-born Americans. About 40 percent job growth went to newly arrived illegal immigrants and another 40 percent to new legal immigrants.

Some may argue that it was the arrival of immigrants in the state that stimulated what job growth there was for natives. But, if immigration stimulates job growth for natives, the numbers in Texas would look very different. The unemployment rate and the employment rate (share holding job) of natives in Texas show a dramatic deterioration during the recession that is similar to the rest of the country. Among the native-born, Texas ranks 22nd in terms of unemployment and 29th in terms of its employment rate. Outside of Texas many of the top immigrant-receiving states have the worst economies. Unemployment in the 10-top immigrant-receiving states in 2011 averaged 8.7 percent, compared to 7.2 percent on average in the 10 states where the fewest immigrants arrived since 2007. These figures do not settle the longstanding debate over the economics of immigration. What they do show is that high immigration is not necessarily associated with positive labor market outcomes for the native-born.

Some may still feel that less-educated immigrants who work at the bottom of the labor market do not really compete with natives. It is true that 56.8 percent of newly arrived immigrants had no more than a high school education. However, there are more than 3 million native-born workers in Texas who have no more than a high school education. Between 2007 and 2011 the number of native-born Texans with a high school degree or less not working increased by 259,000 and their unemployment rates nearly doubled. It would be very difficult to find evidence that less-educated workers were in short supply in the state.

It must also be remembered that many immigrants are more educated. In fact, 43.2 percent (97,000) of newly arrived immigrants who took a job in Texas had at least some college. Thus it would a mistake to assume that immigrants are only competing for jobs at the bottom end of the labor market.

Data Source. The Current Population Survey (CPS), also referred as the "household survey", is the source of data for this analysis. The CPS asks people at their place of residence if they are working. It also asks about their socio-demographic characteristics such as race, education level, age, citizenship, and year of arrival in the United States. Immigrants ,or the foreign-born, are those individuals who were not U.S. citizens at birth and include naturalized citizens, green card holders, guest workers, foreign students, and illegal immigrants. Following the example of other researchers, we use the demographic characteristics of illegal immigrants to estimate the number of illegal immigrants in Texas. In this analysis we compared the second quarter of 2007, before the recession began to the second quarter of 2011, the year for which the most recent data was available.

The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent research institute that examines the impact of immigration on the United States.

Contact: Steven Camarota
[email protected], 202-466-8185

SOURCE Center for Immigration Studies