National Month-over-Month (MoM) HPA in March was up 1.4%, indicating the continuing ability of the seller's market to push back on sharply higher rates

WASHINGTON, April 25, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Nationally, prices have declined 0.9% from the peak in June (not seasonally adjusted), according to data from the American Enterprise Institute's (AEI) Housing Center. The national Month-over-Month (MoM) HPA in March was up 1.4%, the third positive MoM change in a row, continuing to reverse the downward trend started in July 2022. Of the 60 largest metros, home prices have increased in 59 metros since their respective recent troughs in either Dec. 2022 or Jan. 2023, with the exception of New Orleans (see #1 in graphic).

March's Year-over-Year constant-quality HPA was 2.3%, down from 3.7% a month ago, and 18.3% a year ago, the YoY peak. Based on Optimal Blue rate lock data, YoY HPA is projected to decline further to 1% in April and 0% in May.

YoY HPA varied significantly among the 60 largest metros. It ranged from -10.6% and -10.2% in San Jose and San Francisco to 15.0% and 10.0% in Indianapolis and Kansas City (see #2 in graphic).

Historically, low price tier HPA has outpaced HPAs for upper price tiers. This trend continued in March, with the high price tier flat on a YoY basis, while the low price increased 6.1% YoY.

March months' supply dropped from its recent uptick, signaling the continuation of the strong seller's market. Months' supply stood at 3.5 months in March 2023, the same level as last month and pre-pandemic March 2020, and up from 1.7 months in April 2022 (see #3 in graphic). The months' supply for the high price tier came in at 7.4 months in March 2023, helping to explain the price weakness for this tier.

The AEI Housing Center provides the most advanced and timely information on home prices available. Measures of home price appreciation like the Case Shiller index have months of lag. The Housing Center has published data for March 2023 and is able to accurately project March and April with Optimal Blue rate lock data as well.

National Home Price Appreciation (HPA) Index – March 2023

Media Contact Details:

Sissi Li
American Enterprise Institute Housing Center
Washington, DC
https://www.aei.org/centers/housing-center/
[email protected]
203-419-5240

SOURCE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH