• Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • Log In
  • Sign Up
  • Data Privacy
  • Send a Release
Cision PR Newswire: news distribution, targeting and monitoring home
  • News
  • Products
    • Overview
    • Distribution by PR Newswire
    • Cision Communications Cloud®
    • Cision IR
    • Sponsored Placement
    • All Products
  • Contact
    • General Inquiries
    • Request a Demo
    • Editorial Bureaus
    • Partnerships
    • Media Inquiries
    • Worldwide Offices

 

When typing in this field, a list of search results will appear and be automatically updated as you type.

Searching for your content...

No results found. Please change your search terms and try again.
  • News in Focus
      • Browse News Releases

      • All News Releases
      • All Public Company
      • English-only
      • News Releases Overview

      • Multimedia Gallery

      • All Multimedia
      • All Photos
      • All Videos
      • Multimedia Gallery Overview

      • Trending Topics

      • All Trending Topics
  • Business & Money
      • Auto & Transportation

      • All Automotive & Transportation
      • Aerospace, Defense
      • Air Freight
      • Airlines & Aviation
      • Automotive
      • Maritime & Shipbuilding
      • Railroads and Intermodal Transportation
      • Supply Chain/Logistics
      • Transportation, Trucking & Railroad
      • Travel
      • Trucking and Road Transportation
      • Auto & Transportation Overview

      • View All Auto & Transportation

      • Business Technology

      • All Business Technology
      • Blockchain
      • Broadcast Tech
      • Computer & Electronics
      • Computer Hardware
      • Computer Software
      • Data Analytics
      • Electronic Commerce
      • Electronic Components
      • Electronic Design Automation
      • Financial Technology
      • High Tech Security
      • Internet Technology
      • Nanotechnology
      • Networks
      • Peripherals
      • Semiconductors
      • Business Technology Overview

      • View All Business Technology

      • Entertain­ment & Media

      • All Entertain­ment & Media
      • Advertising
      • Art
      • Books
      • Entertainment
      • Film and Motion Picture
      • Magazines
      • Music
      • Publishing & Information Services
      • Radio & Podcast
      • Television
      • Entertain­ment & Media Overview

      • View All Entertain­ment & Media

      • Financial Services & Investing

      • All Financial Services & Investing
      • Accounting News & Issues
      • Acquisitions, Mergers and Takeovers
      • Banking & Financial Services
      • Bankruptcy
      • Bond & Stock Ratings
      • Conference Call Announcements
      • Contracts
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Dividends
      • Earnings
      • Earnings Forecasts & Projections
      • Financing Agreements
      • Insurance
      • Investments Opinions
      • Joint Ventures
      • Mutual Funds
      • Private Placement
      • Real Estate
      • Restructuring & Recapitalization
      • Sales Reports
      • Shareholder Activism
      • Shareholder Meetings
      • Stock Offering
      • Stock Split
      • Venture Capital
      • Financial Services & Investing Overview

      • View All Financial Services & Investing

      • General Business

      • All General Business
      • Awards
      • Commercial Real Estate
      • Corporate Expansion
      • Earnings
      • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
      • Human Resource & Workforce Management
      • Licensing
      • New Products & Services
      • Obituaries
      • Outsourcing Businesses
      • Overseas Real Estate (non-US)
      • Personnel Announcements
      • Real Estate Transactions
      • Residential Real Estate
      • Small Business Services
      • Socially Responsible Investing
      • Surveys, Polls and Research
      • Trade Show News
      • General Business Overview

      • View All General Business

  • Science & Tech
      • Consumer Technology

      • All Consumer Technology
      • Artificial Intelligence
      • Blockchain
      • Cloud Computing/Internet of Things
      • Computer Electronics
      • Computer Hardware
      • Computer Software
      • Consumer Electronics
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Data Analytics
      • Electronic Commerce
      • Electronic Gaming
      • Financial Technology
      • Mobile Entertainment
      • Multimedia & Internet
      • Peripherals
      • Social Media
      • STEM (Science, Tech, Engineering, Math)
      • Supply Chain/Logistics
      • Wireless Communications
      • Consumer Technology Overview

      • View All Consumer Technology

      • Energy & Natural Resources

      • All Energy
      • Alternative Energies
      • Chemical
      • Electrical Utilities
      • Gas
      • General Manufacturing
      • Mining
      • Mining & Metals
      • Oil & Energy
      • Oil and Gas Discoveries
      • Utilities
      • Water Utilities
      • Energy & Natural Resources Overview

      • View All Energy & Natural Resources

      • Environ­ment

      • All Environ­ment
      • Conservation & Recycling
      • Environmental Issues
      • Environmental Policy
      • Environmental Products & Services
      • Green Technology
      • Natural Disasters
      • Environ­ment Overview

      • View All Environ­ment

      • Heavy Industry & Manufacturing

      • All Heavy Industry & Manufacturing
      • Aerospace & Defense
      • Agriculture
      • Chemical
      • Construction & Building
      • General Manufacturing
      • HVAC (Heating, Ventilation and Air-Conditioning)
      • Machinery
      • Machine Tools, Metalworking and Metallurgy
      • Mining
      • Mining & Metals
      • Paper, Forest Products & Containers
      • Precious Metals
      • Textiles
      • Tobacco
      • Heavy Industry & Manufacturing Overview

      • View All Heavy Industry & Manufacturing

      • Telecomm­unications

      • All Telecomm­unications
      • Carriers and Services
      • Mobile Entertainment
      • Networks
      • Peripherals
      • Telecommunications Equipment
      • Telecommunications Industry
      • VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
      • Wireless Communications
      • Telecomm­unications Overview

      • View All Telecomm­unications

  • Lifestyle & Health
      • Consumer Products & Retail

      • All Consumer Products & Retail
      • Animals & Pets
      • Beers, Wines and Spirits
      • Beverages
      • Bridal Services
      • Cannabis
      • Cosmetics and Personal Care
      • Fashion
      • Food & Beverages
      • Furniture and Furnishings
      • Home Improvement
      • Household, Consumer & Cosmetics
      • Household Products
      • Jewelry
      • Non-Alcoholic Beverages
      • Office Products
      • Organic Food
      • Product Recalls
      • Restaurants
      • Retail
      • Supermarkets
      • Toys
      • Consumer Products & Retail Overview

      • View All Consumer Products & Retail

      • Entertain­ment & Media

      • All Entertain­ment & Media
      • Advertising
      • Art
      • Books
      • Entertainment
      • Film and Motion Picture
      • Magazines
      • Music
      • Publishing & Information Services
      • Radio & Podcast
      • Television
      • Entertain­ment & Media Overview

      • View All Entertain­ment & Media

      • Health

      • All Health
      • Biometrics
      • Biotechnology
      • Clinical Trials & Medical Discoveries
      • Dentistry
      • FDA Approval
      • Fitness/Wellness
      • Health Care & Hospitals
      • Health Insurance
      • Infection Control
      • International Medical Approval
      • Medical Equipment
      • Medical Pharmaceuticals
      • Mental Health
      • Pharmaceuticals
      • Supplementary Medicine
      • Health Overview

      • View All Health

      • Sports

      • All Sports
      • General Sports
      • Outdoors, Camping & Hiking
      • Sporting Events
      • Sports Equipment & Accessories
      • Sports Overview

      • View All Sports

      • Travel

      • All Travel
      • Amusement Parks and Tourist Attractions
      • Gambling & Casinos
      • Hotels and Resorts
      • Leisure & Tourism
      • Outdoors, Camping & Hiking
      • Passenger Aviation
      • Travel Industry
      • Travel Overview

      • View All Travel

  • Policy & Public Interest
      • Policy & Public Interest

      • All Policy & Public Interest
      • Advocacy Group Opinion
      • Animal Welfare
      • Congressional & Presidential Campaigns
      • Corporate Social Responsibility
      • Domestic Policy
      • Economic News, Trends, Analysis
      • Education
      • Environmental
      • European Government
      • FDA Approval
      • Federal and State Legislation
      • Federal Executive Branch & Agency
      • Foreign Policy & International Affairs
      • Homeland Security
      • Labor & Union
      • Legal Issues
      • Natural Disasters
      • Not For Profit
      • Patent Law
      • Public Safety
      • Trade Policy
      • U.S. State Policy
      • Policy & Public Interest Overview

      • View All Policy & Public Interest

  • People & Culture
      • People & Culture

      • All People & Culture
      • Aboriginal, First Nations & Native American
      • African American
      • Asian American
      • Children
      • Diversity, Equity & Inclusion
      • Hispanic
      • Lesbian, Gay & Bisexual
      • Men's Interest
      • People with Disabilities
      • Religion
      • Senior Citizens
      • Veterans
      • Women
      • People & Culture Overview

      • View All People & Culture

      • In-Language News

      • español
      • português
      • Česko
      • Danmark
      • Deutschland
      • España
      • France
      • Italia
      • Nederland
      • Norge
      • Polska
      • Portugal
      • Россия
      • Slovensko
      • Suomi
      • Sverige
  • Overview
  • Distribution by PR Newswire
  • Cision Communications Cloud®
  • Cision IR
  • Sponsored Placement
  • All Products
  • General Inquiries
  • Request a Demo
  • Editorial Bureaus
  • Partnerships
  • Media Inquiries
  • Worldwide Offices
  • PR Newswire: news distribution, targeting and monitoring
  • Send a Release
    • ALL CONTACT INFO
    • Contact Us

      888-776-0942
      from 8 AM - 10 PM ET

  • Send a Release
  • Sign Up
  • Log In
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • RSS
  • GDPR
  • News in Focus
    • Browse All News
    • Multimedia Gallery
    • Trending Topics
  • Business & Money
    • Auto & Transportation
    • Business Technology
    • Entertain­ment & Media
    • Financial Services & Investing
    • General Business
  • Science & Tech
    • Consumer Technology
    • Energy & Natural Resources
    • Environ­ment
    • Heavy Industry & Manufacturing
    • Telecomm­unications
  • Lifestyle & Health
    • Consumer Products & Retail
    • Entertain­ment & Media
    • Health
    • Sports
    • Travel
  • Policy & Public Interest
  • People & Culture
    • People & Culture
  • Send a Release
  • Sign Up
  • Log In
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • RSS
  • GDPR
  • Overview
  • Distribution by PR Newswire
  • Cision Communications Cloud®
  • Cision IR
  • All Products
  • Send a Release
  • Sign Up
  • Log In
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • RSS
  • GDPR
  • General Inquiries
  • Request a Demo
  • Editorial Bureaus
  • Partnerships
  • Media Inquiries
  • Worldwide Offices
  • Send a Release
  • Sign Up
  • Log In
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • RSS
  • GDPR

New COVID-19 Projections Show Growing Risk in Known Hotspots, Stabilization in Northeast & Midwest


News provided by

PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia

Jun 17, 2020, 15:19 ET

Share this article

Share this article


PHILADELPHIA, June 17, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- New county-level projections released today by PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) demonstrate increasing risk over the next four weeks for COVID-19 resurgence in known hotspots, including Florida, Arizona, Texas and South Carolina. This has occurred even as other areas—like Denver, Atlanta, St. Louis and Columbus, Ohio—continue to contain transmission of the virus while reopening.  

The new modeling data project many southern and western communities—including Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio, and areas throughout Arkansas, North Carolina and South Carolina—that have been in the news recently for increasing case counts will continue to see a concerning rise in COVID-19 infections into July. However, over the past week, social distancing, which the model measures as changes in travel to non-essential businesses, has begun to tighten again in some counties, particularly in Texas and the Southwest—a sign that community members or local officials are slowing the pace of reopening to combat the rise in cases. The researchers will closely watch over the next few weeks how quickly that tightening may help to flatten these evolving epidemics.

Still, among all of the worsening forecasts, several areas in Florida had considerably more alarming predictions from last week—for example, new daily cases are projected to rise to 500 in Palm Beach and nearly 350 in Orlando by mid-July. New areas of concern are also emerging on the coast of South Carolina—from Myrtle Beach through Charleston and Hilton Head Island—and worsening disease burden in parishes around New Orleans are threatening virus resurgence in that city for the first time in two months. Meanwhile, increasing case forecasts for Oklahoma City, Tulsa and Kansas City bear close watching to see if they might lead to more widespread community transmission.

Importantly, the researchers did not observe a significant effect of the recent outdoor protests in increasing risk for COVID-19 resurgence in the large urban cities of the mid-Atlantic, Northeast, Midwest and Upper Midwest. Instead, the clustering of counties with concerning forecasts along major highway routes, including I-85, I-95 and I-5, and among southern communities that received an influx of Memorial Day visitors, leads the researchers to suspect that increased travel as places reopen is a greater factor in perpetrating spread of the virus. This is particularly true in areas with high circulating case counts and uncertain vigilance with respect to masking in indoor locations. Although the current PolicyLab model does not yet account for factors related to vehicular traffic, it is expected to include this feature in future models.

Finally, the model continues to project that areas in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Midwest that reopened more cautiously or slowly—such as Denver, Columbus, Ohio, Madison, Wis., St. Louis, Atlanta, New York City and Boston—will be better able to contain any increase in case counts as social distancing relaxes over the next four weeks.

"Understanding the underlying reasons why some communities are succeeding so far in containing additional widespread community transmission of COVID-19—whether due to differences in ability to contain local outbreaks in high-risk locations, like meatpacking plants, or vigilance in personal protective behaviors—will be key to informing community strategies to contain spread of coronavirus beyond this summer," said David Rubin, MD, MSCE, director of PolicyLab at CHOP and a professor of Pediatrics at the University of Pennsylvania's Perelman School of Medicine. "Those bright spots should be receiving equal, if not more, attention than the hotspots as we prepare for what may be a difficult fall."

For additional comments from lead investigators Dr. Rubin, Dr. Gregory Tasian, and Dr. Jing Huang on their updated forecasts and findings, read this blog post: https://policylab.chop.edu/blog/covid-19-outlook-america-hangs-balance-early-evidence-behavior-shifts

Background

Researchers at PolicyLab at CHOP and the University of Pennsylvania developed the model, known as COVID-Lab: Mapping COVID-19 in Your Community, which tracks and projects COVID-19 transmission across 517 U.S. counties with active outbreaks, representing 71% of the U.S. population and 89% of all identified coronavirus cases. The researchers built their model to observe how social distancing, population density, daily temperatures, and humidity affect the number and spread of COVID-19 infections over time across a county, accounting for test positivity rates and population characteristics such as age, insurance status, crowding within homes and diabetes prevalence. COVID-Lab's projections forecast the number of coronavirus cases communities could experience over the next four weeks based on a three-day average of their current social distancing practices, defined by the change in travel to non-essential businesses as compared to pre-epidemic. A scientific review of the team's model and findings is available as a pre-print article ahead of peer review on medRxiv. The data are publicly available in the form of interactive maps and graphs.

About PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia: PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) is dedicated to achieving optimal child health and well-being by informing program and policy changes through interdisciplinary research. Founded in 2008, PolicyLab is a Center of Emphasis within the CHOP Research Institute, one of the largest pediatric research institutes in the country. With more than 30 highly regarded faculty and 60 passionate staff who bring expertise from myriad of fields covering health, research and health policy, our work focuses on improving public systems, improving health care delivery and improving child health outcomes. For more information, visit http://www.policylab.chop.edu. 

MEDIA CONTACT:
Lauren Walens, Strategic Ops & Comms Director
PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia
[email protected] or (734) 904-2181

SOURCE PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia

Related Links

http://www.policylab.chop.edu

Modal title

Also from this source

New Study Shows Mask Mandates Associated with Reduction in...

Explore

More news releases in similar topics

  • Health Care & Hospitals
  • Medical Pharmaceuticals
  • Infection Control
  • Back-to-School
  • Education

Contact Cision

  • Cision Distribution 888-776-0942
    from 8 AM - 9 PM ET

  • Chat with an Expert
  • General Inquiries
  • Request a Demo
  • Editorial Bureaus
  • Partnerships
  • Media Inquiries
  • Worldwide Offices

Products

  • Cision Communication Cloud®
  • For Marketers
  • For Public Relations
  • For IR & Compliance
  • For Agency
  • For Small Business
  • All Products

About

  • About PR Newswire
  • About Cision
  • Become a Publishing Partner
  • Become a Channel Partner
  • Careers
  • COVID-19 Resources
  • Accessibility Statement
  • Asia
  • Brazil
  • Canada
  • Czech
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • India
  • Israel
  • Italy
  • Mexico
  • Middle East
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Russia
  • Slovakia
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • United Kingdom

My Services

  • All New Releases
  • Online Member Center
  • ProfNet

Contact Cision

Products

About

My Services
  • All News Releases
  • Online Member Center
  • ProfNet
Cision Distribution Helpline
888-776-0942
  • Terms of Use
  • Privacy Policy
  • Information Security Policy
  • Site Map
  • RSS
  • Cookie Settings
Copyright © 2022 Cision US Inc.