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New Vehicle Sales Expected to Drop in June, Closing a Second Down Quarter in 2020, Edmunds Forecasts

Analysts forecast a healthier-than-expected SAAR of 12.8 million in June as the country expands reopening and more consumers resume car purchases, but warn that new market factors could create trouble ahead

Car-buying platform Edmunds.com serves nearly 20 million visitors each month. With Edmunds.com Price Promise(R), shoppers can buy smarter with instant, upfront prices for cars and trucks currently for sale at over 10,000 dealer franchises across the U.S.

News provided by

Edmunds

Jun 25, 2020, 09:00 ET

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SANTA MONICA, Calif., June 25, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The car shopping experts at Edmunds say that June will be another down month for auto sales as the industry continues to combat market challenges posed by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, forecasting that 1,080,656 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in June for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 12.8 million. This reflects a 28.7% decrease in sales from June 2019 and a 3.6% decrease from May 2020.

Edmunds experts note that sales are also down for the second quarter in a row this year, forecasting sales of 2,914,860 new cars and trucks in the second quarter, which reflects a 34.3% decrease from the second quarter of 2019.

"It comes as no surprise that the second quarter was a disappointing one for the automotive industry, but the good news is that auto sales didn't come to a complete standstill either," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of insights. "The fact that retail sales — not fleet — are what kept the market propped up speaks volumes to the resilience of the American consumer. And the way that dealers were quick to pivot to online sales also underscores the incredibly responsive and resourceful nature of the industry in the face of adversity."

Although Edmunds data shows a steady growth in sales since the end of March, analysts caution that some of the strains of the pandemic are starting to show as more shoppers return to the market.

"The marketplace is growing less inviting as automakers pull back on incentives and inventory dwindles due to factory shutdowns, particularly when it comes to trucks, which have been the one bright spot for sales during the pandemic," said Caldwell. "Current sales paint an optimistic picture given the circumstances, but between COVID-19 and today's politically charged climate, the industry needs to prepare for uncertainties ahead." 

JUNE SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales
Volume

2020 June
Forecast

June 2019

May 2020

Change from
June 2019

Change from May
2020

GM

167,499

253,879

176,874

-34.0%

-5.3%

Toyota

159,752

201,887

165,055

-20.9%

-3.2%

Ford

143,192

218,691

154,775

-34.5%

-7.5%

FCA

126,496

206,083

135,542

-38.6%

-6.7%

Honda

111,377

135,901

120,977

-18.0%

-7.9%

Hyundai/Kia

103,812

122,890

104,786

-15.5%

-0.9%

Nissan

66,922

123,504

65,065

-45.8%

2.9%

VW/Audi

37,421

51,134

37,212

-26.8%

0.6%

Industry

1,080,656

1,516,579

1,121,126

-28.7%

-3.6%

*NOTE: June 2020 had 25 selling days, June 2019 had 26 and May 2020 had 26.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 11.1 million vehicles in June 2020, with fleet transactions accounting for 13.0% of total sales.

JUNE MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market
Share

2020 June
Forecast

June
2019

May
2020

Change from
June 2019

Change from May
2020

GM

15.5%

16.7%

15.8%

-7.4%

-1.8%

Toyota

14.8%

13.3%

14.7%

11.0%

0.4%

Ford

13.3%

14.4%

13.8%

-8.1%

-4.0%

FCA

11.7%

13.6%

12.1%

-13.9%

-3.2%

Honda

10.3%

9.0%

10.8%

15.0%

-4.5%

Hyundai/Kia

9.6%

8.1%

9.3%

18.6%

2.8%

Nissan

6.2%

8.1%

5.8%

-24.0%

6.7%

VW/Audi

3.5%

3.4%

3.3%

2.7%

4.3%

Q2 SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

SALES
VOLUME

2020 Q2
Forecast

Q2 2019

Q1 2020

Change from
Q2 2019

Change from Q1
2020

GM

482,362

745,354

617,468

-35.3%

-21.9%

Ford

417,558

644,498

514,614

-35.2%

-18.9%

Toyota

409,501

607,927

495,747

-32.6%

-17.4%

FCA

353,787

597,685

446,768

-40.8%

-20.8%

Honda

290,105

407,208

298,784

-28.8%

-2.9%

Hyundai/Kia

275,077

359,796

272,775

-23.5%

0.8%

Nissan

178,274

351,185

257,606

-49.2%

-30.8%

VW/Audi

100,311

152,061

120,589

-34.0%

-16.8%

Industry

2,914,860

4,438,956

3,503,354

-34.3%

-16.8%

Q2 MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market
Share

2020 Q1
Forecast

2020 Q2
Forecast

Q2 2019

Q1 2020

Change from Q2
2019

GM

16.5%

16.8%

17.6%

-1.4%

-6.1%

Ford

14.3%

14.5%

14.7%

-1.3%

-2.5%

Toyota

14.0%

13.7%

14.2%

2.6%

-0.7%

FCA

12.1%

13.5%

12.8%

-9.9%

-4.8%

Honda

10.0%

9.2%

8.5%

8.5%

16.7%

Hyundai/Kia

9.4%

8.1%

7.8%

16.4%

21.2%

Nissan

6.1%

7.9%

7.4%

-22.7%

-16.8%

VW/Audi

3.4%

3.4%

3.4%

0.5%

0.0%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds
Edmunds
 guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

CONTACT:
Talia James-Armand
Senior Manager, Public Relations
[email protected]
310-309-4900
http://edmunds.com/about/press

SOURCE Edmunds

Related Links

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