• Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • Log In
  • Sign Up
  • Data Privacy
  • Send a Release
Cision PR Newswire: news distribution, targeting and monitoring home
  • News
  • Products
    • Overview
    • Distribution by PR Newswire
    • Cision Communications Cloud®
    • Cision IR
    • Sponsored Placement
    • All Products
  • Contact
    • General Inquiries
    • Request a Demo
    • Editorial Bureaus
    • Partnerships
    • Media Inquiries
    • Worldwide Offices

 

When typing in this field, a list of search results will appear and be automatically updated as you type.

Searching for your content...

No results found. Please change your search terms and try again.
  • News in Focus
      • Browse News Releases

      • All News Releases
      • All Public Company
      • English-only
      • News Releases Overview

      • Multimedia Gallery

      • All Multimedia
      • All Photos
      • All Videos
      • Multimedia Gallery Overview

      • Trending Topics

      • All Trending Topics
  • Business & Money
      • Auto & Transportation

      • All Automotive & Transportation
      • Aerospace, Defense
      • Air Freight
      • Airlines & Aviation
      • Automotive
      • Maritime & Shipbuilding
      • Railroads and Intermodal Transportation
      • Supply Chain/Logistics
      • Transportation, Trucking & Railroad
      • Travel
      • Trucking and Road Transportation
      • Auto & Transportation Overview

      • View All Auto & Transportation

      • Business Technology

      • All Business Technology
      • Blockchain
      • Broadcast Tech
      • Computer & Electronics
      • Computer Hardware
      • Computer Software
      • Data Analytics
      • Electronic Commerce
      • Electronic Components
      • Electronic Design Automation
      • Financial Technology
      • High Tech Security
      • Internet Technology
      • Nanotechnology
      • Networks
      • Peripherals
      • Semiconductors
      • Business Technology Overview

      • View All Business Technology

      • Entertain­ment & Media

      • All Entertain­ment & Media
      • Advertising
      • Art
      • Books
      • Entertainment
      • Film and Motion Picture
      • Magazines
      • Music
      • Publishing & Information Services
      • Radio & Podcast
      • Television
      • Entertain­ment & Media Overview

      • View All Entertain­ment & Media

      • Financial Services & Investing

      • All Financial Services & Investing
      • Accounting News & Issues
      • Acquisitions, Mergers and Takeovers
      • Banking & Financial Services
      • Bankruptcy
      • Bond & Stock Ratings
      • Conference Call Announcements
      • Contracts
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Dividends
      • Earnings
      • Earnings Forecasts & Projections
      • Financing Agreements
      • Insurance
      • Investments Opinions
      • Joint Ventures
      • Mutual Funds
      • Private Placement
      • Real Estate
      • Restructuring & Recapitalization
      • Sales Reports
      • Shareholder Activism
      • Shareholder Meetings
      • Stock Offering
      • Stock Split
      • Venture Capital
      • Financial Services & Investing Overview

      • View All Financial Services & Investing

      • General Business

      • All General Business
      • Awards
      • Commercial Real Estate
      • Corporate Expansion
      • Earnings
      • Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)
      • Human Resource & Workforce Management
      • Licensing
      • New Products & Services
      • Obituaries
      • Outsourcing Businesses
      • Overseas Real Estate (non-US)
      • Personnel Announcements
      • Real Estate Transactions
      • Residential Real Estate
      • Small Business Services
      • Socially Responsible Investing
      • Surveys, Polls and Research
      • Trade Show News
      • General Business Overview

      • View All General Business

  • Science & Tech
      • Consumer Technology

      • All Consumer Technology
      • Artificial Intelligence
      • Blockchain
      • Cloud Computing/Internet of Things
      • Computer Electronics
      • Computer Hardware
      • Computer Software
      • Consumer Electronics
      • Cryptocurrency
      • Data Analytics
      • Electronic Commerce
      • Electronic Gaming
      • Financial Technology
      • Mobile Entertainment
      • Multimedia & Internet
      • Peripherals
      • Social Media
      • STEM (Science, Tech, Engineering, Math)
      • Supply Chain/Logistics
      • Wireless Communications
      • Consumer Technology Overview

      • View All Consumer Technology

      • Energy & Natural Resources

      • All Energy
      • Alternative Energies
      • Chemical
      • Electrical Utilities
      • Gas
      • General Manufacturing
      • Mining
      • Mining & Metals
      • Oil & Energy
      • Oil and Gas Discoveries
      • Utilities
      • Water Utilities
      • Energy & Natural Resources Overview

      • View All Energy & Natural Resources

      • Environ­ment

      • All Environ­ment
      • Conservation & Recycling
      • Environmental Issues
      • Environmental Policy
      • Environmental Products & Services
      • Green Technology
      • Natural Disasters
      • Environ­ment Overview

      • View All Environ­ment

      • Heavy Industry & Manufacturing

      • All Heavy Industry & Manufacturing
      • Aerospace & Defense
      • Agriculture
      • Chemical
      • Construction & Building
      • General Manufacturing
      • HVAC (Heating, Ventilation and Air-Conditioning)
      • Machinery
      • Machine Tools, Metalworking and Metallurgy
      • Mining
      • Mining & Metals
      • Paper, Forest Products & Containers
      • Precious Metals
      • Textiles
      • Tobacco
      • Heavy Industry & Manufacturing Overview

      • View All Heavy Industry & Manufacturing

      • Telecomm­unications

      • All Telecomm­unications
      • Carriers and Services
      • Mobile Entertainment
      • Networks
      • Peripherals
      • Telecommunications Equipment
      • Telecommunications Industry
      • VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
      • Wireless Communications
      • Telecomm­unications Overview

      • View All Telecomm­unications

  • Lifestyle & Health
      • Consumer Products & Retail

      • All Consumer Products & Retail
      • Animals & Pets
      • Beers, Wines and Spirits
      • Beverages
      • Bridal Services
      • Cannabis
      • Cosmetics and Personal Care
      • Fashion
      • Food & Beverages
      • Furniture and Furnishings
      • Home Improvement
      • Household, Consumer & Cosmetics
      • Household Products
      • Jewelry
      • Non-Alcoholic Beverages
      • Office Products
      • Organic Food
      • Product Recalls
      • Restaurants
      • Retail
      • Supermarkets
      • Toys
      • Consumer Products & Retail Overview

      • View All Consumer Products & Retail

      • Entertain­ment & Media

      • All Entertain­ment & Media
      • Advertising
      • Art
      • Books
      • Entertainment
      • Film and Motion Picture
      • Magazines
      • Music
      • Publishing & Information Services
      • Radio & Podcast
      • Television
      • Entertain­ment & Media Overview

      • View All Entertain­ment & Media

      • Health

      • All Health
      • Biometrics
      • Biotechnology
      • Clinical Trials & Medical Discoveries
      • Dentistry
      • FDA Approval
      • Fitness/Wellness
      • Health Care & Hospitals
      • Health Insurance
      • Infection Control
      • International Medical Approval
      • Medical Equipment
      • Medical Pharmaceuticals
      • Mental Health
      • Pharmaceuticals
      • Supplementary Medicine
      • Health Overview

      • View All Health

      • Sports

      • All Sports
      • General Sports
      • Outdoors, Camping & Hiking
      • Sporting Events
      • Sports Equipment & Accessories
      • Sports Overview

      • View All Sports

      • Travel

      • All Travel
      • Amusement Parks and Tourist Attractions
      • Gambling & Casinos
      • Hotels and Resorts
      • Leisure & Tourism
      • Outdoors, Camping & Hiking
      • Passenger Aviation
      • Travel Industry
      • Travel Overview

      • View All Travel

  • Policy & Public Interest
      • Policy & Public Interest

      • All Policy & Public Interest
      • Advocacy Group Opinion
      • Animal Welfare
      • Congressional & Presidential Campaigns
      • Corporate Social Responsibility
      • Domestic Policy
      • Economic News, Trends, Analysis
      • Education
      • Environmental
      • European Government
      • FDA Approval
      • Federal and State Legislation
      • Federal Executive Branch & Agency
      • Foreign Policy & International Affairs
      • Homeland Security
      • Labor & Union
      • Legal Issues
      • Natural Disasters
      • Not For Profit
      • Patent Law
      • Public Safety
      • Trade Policy
      • U.S. State Policy
      • Policy & Public Interest Overview

      • View All Policy & Public Interest

  • People & Culture
      • People & Culture

      • All People & Culture
      • Aboriginal, First Nations & Native American
      • African American
      • Asian American
      • Children
      • Diversity, Equity & Inclusion
      • Hispanic
      • Lesbian, Gay & Bisexual
      • Men's Interest
      • People with Disabilities
      • Religion
      • Senior Citizens
      • Veterans
      • Women
      • People & Culture Overview

      • View All People & Culture

      • In-Language News

      • español
      • português
      • Česko
      • Danmark
      • Deutschland
      • España
      • France
      • Italia
      • Nederland
      • Norge
      • Polska
      • Portugal
      • Россия
      • Slovensko
      • Suomi
      • Sverige
  • Overview
  • Distribution by PR Newswire
  • Cision Communications Cloud®
  • Cision IR
  • Sponsored Placement
  • All Products
  • General Inquiries
  • Request a Demo
  • Editorial Bureaus
  • Partnerships
  • Media Inquiries
  • Worldwide Offices
  • PR Newswire: news distribution, targeting and monitoring
  • Send a Release
    • ALL CONTACT INFO
    • Contact Us

      888-776-0942
      from 8 AM - 10 PM ET

  • Send a Release
  • Sign Up
  • Log In
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • RSS
  • GDPR
  • News in Focus
    • Browse All News
    • Multimedia Gallery
    • Trending Topics
  • Business & Money
    • Auto & Transportation
    • Business Technology
    • Entertain­ment & Media
    • Financial Services & Investing
    • General Business
  • Science & Tech
    • Consumer Technology
    • Energy & Natural Resources
    • Environ­ment
    • Heavy Industry & Manufacturing
    • Telecomm­unications
  • Lifestyle & Health
    • Consumer Products & Retail
    • Entertain­ment & Media
    • Health
    • Sports
    • Travel
  • Policy & Public Interest
  • People & Culture
    • People & Culture
  • Send a Release
  • Sign Up
  • Log In
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • RSS
  • GDPR
  • Overview
  • Distribution by PR Newswire
  • Cision Communications Cloud®
  • Cision IR
  • All Products
  • Send a Release
  • Sign Up
  • Log In
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • RSS
  • GDPR
  • General Inquiries
  • Request a Demo
  • Editorial Bureaus
  • Partnerships
  • Media Inquiries
  • Worldwide Offices
  • Send a Release
  • Sign Up
  • Log In
  • Resources
  • Blog
  • Journalists
  • RSS
  • GDPR

Nova projeção prevê mortes de COVID-19 a cerca de 90.000 no Brasil

IHME_Logo

News provided by

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

May 13, 2020, 02:34 ET

Share this article

Share this article


"O sistema de saúde da nação enfrenta um desafio assustador"

SEATTLE, 13 de maio de 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- O Instituto de Métricas e Avaliação da Saúde (IHME) da Universidade de Washington está prevendo quase 90.000 mortes relacionadas ao COVID-19 no Brasil até agosto.

A análise inclui previsões para oito dos 26 estados brasileiros que foram os primeiros a ter mais de 50 mortes, incluindo São Paulo, com quase 37.000 mortes previstos, para o Paraná com menos de 250 mortes.

"As projeções do IHME para mortes no Brasil indicam claramente que o sistema de saúde do país está enfrentando um desafio assustador", disse o diretor do IHME, Dr. Christopher Murray. "Nosso objetivo em anunciar esses resultados é informar aos decisores políticos a melhor forma de controlar e mobilizar para o COVID-19".

A previsão atual do IHME dura até 4 de agosto e, como Murray observou, as projeções do Instituto mudam à medida que novos dados são adquiridos e analisados. Estados adicionais serão adicionados às próximas previsões. Flutuações são esperadas.

A análise do Instituto conclui que haverá 88.305 mortes no Brasil, com um intervalo possível tão baixo quanto 30.302 e tão alto quanto 193.786 até 4 de agosto. Inclui oito dos 26 estados do país. Por estado, os resultados são:

  • São Paulo: 36.811 mortes previstas até 4 de agosto, com variação de 11.097 a 81.774
  • Rio de Janeiro: 21.073 mortes previstas até 4 de agosto, com um intervalo de 5.966 a 51.901
  • Pernambuco: 9.401 mortes previstas até 4 de agosto, com faixa de 2.468 a 23.026
  • Ceará: 8.679 mortes previstas até 4 de agosto, com variação de 2.894 a 18.592
  • Amazonas: 5.039 mortes previstas até 4 de agosto, com um intervalo de 1.859 a 9,383
  • Maranhão: 4.613 mortes previstas até 4 de agosto, com um intervalo de 868 a 12.661
  • Bahia: 2.443 mortes previstas até 4 de agosto, com um intervalo de 529 a 8.429
  • Paraná: 245 mortes previstas até 4 de agosto, com faixa de 170 a 397

Os resultados de hoje seguem pedidos dos líderes da saúde para projeções de mortes e outras assuntos relacionadas ao COVID-19, como recursos hospitalares necessários para ajudar a lidar com a pandemia. As estimativas do IHME mostram que o Brasil está com uma falta de mais de 3.000 camas hospitalares de UTI, e a lacuna é prevista crescer. Alguns estados brasileiros também estão sofrendo falta aguda. Estima-se um déficit de mais de 3.000 camas hospitalares e mais de 1.000 camas de UTIs no Amazonas a partir de 12 de maio, e em São Paulo, um déficit de mais de 1.000 camas de UTIs.

"É importante que os países e as regiões analisem atentamente a capacidade hospitalar, as necessidades de recursos, e a trajetória contínua de casos de coronavírus", disse Jarbas Barbosa, Diretor Assistente da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde. "A epidemia na América Latina está chegando mais tarde que na Europa. Este é um momento para estar vigilante, observar os dados, e implementar as medidas relevantes da saúde pública."

Murray observou que sua organização trabalhou em estreita colaboração com os funcionários da OPAS e outros membros de sua rede de colaboradores, totalizando agora mais de 5.000 pessoas em mais de 150 países.

Os países latino-americanos com as maiores mortes previstas após o Brasil estão enfrentando números menores, mas ainda sofrem falta de recursos:

  • México: 6.859 mortes previstas até 4 de agosto, com um intervalo de 3.578 a 16.795
  • Peru: 6.428 mortes previstas até 4 de agosto, com um intervalo de 2.731 a 21.724
  • Equador: 5.215 mortes previstas até 4 de agosto, com um intervalo de 4.844 a 6.052

As previsões do Instituto para todos os países e as regiões são baseadas em um modelo híbrido. O modelo IHME lançado em 26 de março para estimar a demanda de recursos hospitalares agora é combinado com um modelo de transmissão de doenças. O novo modelo captura o impacto de mudanças nos mandatos de distanciamento social, mudanças na mobilidade, e testes e rastreamento de contatos. Ele permite prever um ressurgimento se e quando mais mandatos de distanciamento social forem levantados.

"Este novo modelo é a base para a estimativa preocupante de mortes no Brasil e em outras nações," disse Murray. "O modelo permite a atualização regular à medida que novos dados são divulgados sobre casos, hospitalizações, mortes, testes, e mobilidade. Ele pode informar as decisões sobre o mandato e, mais tarde, o levantamento as políticas de distanciamento social para minimizar o risco de infecções. Como em todas as nossas previsões, elas serão atualizadas regularmente e novos dados serão adicionados como disponíveis. "

As novas projeções de morte estão disponíveis em https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections.

O IHME agradece ao programa Microsoft AI for Health por oferecer suporte à hospedagem de visualizações de dados COVID-19 na nuvem do Azure.

Sobre o Instituto de Métricas e Avaliação da Saúde (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation - IHME )

O Instituto de Métricas e Avaliação da Saúde (IHME) é uma organização global independente de pesquisa em saúde da Faculdade de Medicina na Universidade de Washington, que fornece medidas rigorosas e comparáveis dos problemas da saúde mais importantes do mundo e avalia as estratégias usadas para resolvê-los. O IHME está comprometido com a transparência e disponibiliza amplamente essas informações para que os decisores políticos tenham as evidências necessárias para tomar decisões informadas sobre a alocação de recursos para melhorar a saúde da população.

Logo - https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1156878/IHME_Logo.jpg

FONTE Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Related Links

http://www.healthdata.org/

SOURCE Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Modal title

Also from this source

IHME study shows dramatic variation in health care spending...

IHME study shows dramatic variation in health care spending...


Mukteshwari "Mukti" Bosco Receives 2022 Roux Prize...

Mukteshwari "Mukti" Bosco Receives 2022 Roux Prize...

Explore

More news releases in similar topics

  • Health Care & Hospitals
  • Publishing & Information Services
  • Surveys, Polls and Research

Contact Cision

  • Cision Distribution 888-776-0942
    from 8 AM - 9 PM ET

  • Chat with an Expert
  • General Inquiries
  • Request a Demo
  • Editorial Bureaus
  • Partnerships
  • Media Inquiries
  • Worldwide Offices

Products

  • Cision Communication Cloud®
  • For Marketers
  • For Public Relations
  • For IR & Compliance
  • For Agency
  • For Small Business
  • All Products

About

  • About PR Newswire
  • About Cision
  • Become a Publishing Partner
  • Become a Channel Partner
  • Careers
  • COVID-19 Resources
  • Accessibility Statement
  • Asia
  • Brazil
  • Canada
  • Czech
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • India
  • Israel
  • Italy
  • Mexico
  • Middle East
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Poland
  • Portugal
  • Russia
  • Slovakia
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • United Kingdom

My Services

  • All New Releases
  • Online Member Center
  • ProfNet

Contact Cision

Products

About

My Services
  • All News Releases
  • Online Member Center
  • ProfNet
Cision Distribution Helpline
888-776-0942
  • Terms of Use
  • Privacy Policy
  • Information Security Policy
  • Site Map
  • RSS
  • Cookie Settings
Copyright © 2022 Cision US Inc.