project44 September Tariff Report Shows Surging Blank Sailings & U.S. Export Declines

project44 establishes monthly tariff reports, building on Supply Chain Insights

CHICAGO, Sept. 3, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- In the wake of sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs and reciprocal measures from key global partners, the U.S. trade environment is undergoing a recalibration. Because of the ongoing nature of the volatility, the project44 Tariff report will now be published the first week of every month, giving supply chain decision-makers a clearer picture of the macro landscape.

Here are the key findings from the September report:

• Export Declines to Top Partners: Year-to-date exports to Canada and China have dropped by 7.6% and 1% respectively, signaling a shift in demand and potential geopolitical tension
  
  
• Blank Sailings Surge: Ocean carriers are responding with aggressive capacity management. The New York → Colombo route saw a 49.2 percentage point increase in blank sailings (defined as a cargo ship voyage being canceled, partially or entirely) year-over-year, with similar spikes on Lianyungang → Seattle (+27.0pp) and Kaohsiung → Long Beach (+22.7pp)
  
  
• Diversification Trends: India and Bangladesh have gained modest import share, reflecting ongoing efforts by U.S. businesses to diversify sourcing amid tariff uncertainty
  
  
• Legal Challenges and Policy Uncertainty: With the Trump Administration in its final term, the future of these tariffs remains unclear. Legal challenges to the "Liberation Day" tariffs are currently moving through the courts, and 2029 could mark their sunset

"Don't mistake capacity discipline for demand recovery. The spike in blanks on U.S.–linked lanes is carriers managing the chessboard, avoiding high tariffs and reorganizing their importing strategy to align with the changing game," said Lora Cecere, founder of Supply Chain Insights, LLC.

In future months, project44 expects tariff rates to stabilize. Once trade agreements are extended, the current patterns suggest a cautious equilibrium can be found. Renewed volatility remains a possibility if geopolitical, legal or policy conditions shift.

For more information about project44 and Movement, the Decision Intelligence platform, visit project44.com.

About project44

project44 is the Decision Intelligence Platform for the modern supply chain. Its value-driven AI transforms fragmented logistics management into unified intelligence, bringing certainty to global supply chain operations. With the industry's largest ecosystem, project44 provides visibility into over 1.5 billion shipments annually for over 1,000 leading brands in manufacturing, automotive, retail, life sciences, food & beverage, CPG, and oil, chemical & gas. Learn more at project44.com.

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SOURCE project44