RSM US Middle Market Business Index Hits Business Cycle High as Firms Continue to Invest

Survey shows sustained hiring and expansion across the middle market

CHICAGO, June 16, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI) jumped to 113.4 in the second quarter, up from 107 in the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis. The reading marks a peak in the current business cycle, driven by a tax cut tailwind, rising equity valuations and optimistic expectations for revenues, earnings and capital expenditures.

The MMBI survey data reflects a broad-based improvement in middle market fundamentals. A robust non-residential investment market, fueled by $1.6 trillion in AI-related capital expenditures, is lifting the broader economy and offsetting weakness in other sectors, including housing.

"America's middle market is firing on nearly all cylinders at the midpoint of 2026," said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist with RSM US LLP. "What stands out is the willingness of middle market firms to keep investing and hiring despite ongoing inflation and geopolitical risks, reinforcing their role as a stabilizing force in the economy."

Strong Fundamentals Underpin Mid-Year Confidence in the Middle Market
In the second quarter survey, more than half of middle market executives reported improvements in revenues (59%) and net earnings (58%). Forward-looking sentiment remains stronger, with 66% expecting revenues to improve and 65% anticipating higher earnings over the next six months.

Momentum around capital expenditures continues to accelerate. Fifty-seven percent of respondents reported increased outlays in the current quarter, and 65% expect to further accelerate capital expenditures over the next six months.

"The robust increase in capital expenditures for both the current quarter and over the next six months bodes well for future productivity within the middle market and the overall economy," Brusuelas said.

While 47% reported improvement in overall economic conditions this quarter, a larger share (60%) anticipate conditions to improve over the next six months, reflecting growing confidence in the macroeconomic outlook.

Executives Perceive Inflation as Temporary
Seventy-eight percent of respondents said they paid higher prices in the current quarter, up from 71% in the prior quarter. However, the share expecting those increases to continue declined to 69%, suggesting the middle market may be perceiving inflation as temporary. However, the RSM report notes that inflation presents a potential downside risk to the outlook should the supply shock stemming from the conflict in the Middle East continue.

Hiring and Pay Rise with Economy at Full Employment
Middle market executives are expanding their workforce in step with growth expectations. Hiring and compensation reflect continued demand for talent with more than half (53%) reported increased hiring in the second quarter, up from 45% in the prior period, while 58% expect to add headcount over the next six months.

Compensation pressures continue to intensify. Sixty-two percent of executives said they raised compensation in the current quarter, up from 53% previously, and 65% expect to increase pay to attract new hires.

The survey data that informs this index reading was gathered from 500 respondents at middle market firms in the United States from April 1 to April 23, 2026.

About the RSM US Middle Market Business Index 
The RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI) is based on research of middle market firms conducted by Harris Poll, which began in the first quarter of 2015. The survey is conducted four times a year, in the first month of each quarter: January, April, July and October. The Panel is in transition to reflect RSM's new definition of the US Middle Market. Panel members from smaller companies with revenue under $30M are being removed from the Panel through screening criteria in each quarterly survey. The Panel currently consists of approximately 400-500 active records who have conducted at least one survey in the past two years. 

Built in collaboration with Moody's Analytics, the MMBI is borne out of the subset of questions in the survey that asks respondents to report the change in a variety of indicators. Respondents are asked a total of 20 questions patterned after those in other qualitative business surveys, such as those from the Institute of Supply Management and National Federation of Independent Businesses. 

The 20 questions relate to changes in various measures of their business, such as revenues, profits, capital expenditures, hiring, employee compensation, prices paid, prices received and inventories. There are also questions that pertain to the economy and outlook, as well as to credit availability and borrowing. For 10 of the questions, respondents are asked to report the change from the previous quarter; for the other 10 they are asked to state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. 

The responses to each question are reported as diffusion indexes. The MMBI is a composite index computed as an equal weighted sum of the diffusion indexes for 10 survey questions plus 100 to keep the MMBI from becoming negative. A reading above 100 for the MMBI indicates that the middle market is generally expanding; below 100 indicates that it is generally contracting. The distance from 100 is indicative of the strength of the expansion or contraction. 

About RSM US LLP
For 100 years, RSM has empowered middle market companies worldwide to take charge of change. The clients we serve are the engine of global commerce and economic growth. Our unique understanding of the middle market makes RSM the natural choice for growth-oriented, internationally active organizations seeking relevant insights and tailored, innovative solutions for a complex and changing world. With a global reach spanning more than 120 countries, we instill confidence in a world of change by bringing the full power of RSM to make a lasting impact on our clients, colleagues and communities. For more information, visit rsmus.com, like us on Facebook and/or connect with us on LinkedIn.

SOURCE RSM US LLP