The Conference Board® Korea Business Cycle Indicators(SM)

NEW YORK, July 13 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for Korea increased 0.9 percent and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) increased 0.5 percent in May.

• The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased again in May. Large positive contributions from private construction orders and value of machinery orders more than offset negative contributions from stock prices, letter of credit arrivals, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, and the (inverted) bond yield. The six-month growth rate of the leading economic index has continued to slow, to 3.9 percent (about an 8.0 percent annual rate) from November 2009 to May 2010, down from 7.6 percent (about a 15.7 percent annual rate) for the previous six months.  However, the strengths among the leading indicators have remained widespread in recent months.
• The Conference Board CEI for Korea, a measure of current economic activity, also increased in May. Substantial gains in total employment and industrial production more than offset the small declines in the other components.  The six-month growth in the coincident economic index has also slowed, to 1.4 percent (about a 2.7 percent annual rate) for the period through May, down from 2.8 percent (about a 5.7 percent annual rate) for the previous six months. At the same time, real GDP grew at an 8.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2010, above the 6.9 percent average annual rate of increase in the second half of last year.  
• The Conference Board LEI for Korea has continued its upward trend, which started in early 2009. However, its six-month growth rate has slowed this year. At the same time, The Conference Board CEI for Korea has also remained on a rising trend, but with its growth rate slowing in recent months. Taken together, the current behavior of the composite indexes and their components suggests that the economy will continue to grow, albeit at a modest pace in the near term.

LEADING INDICATORS.  Three of the seven components that make up The Conference Board LEI for Korea increased in May. The positive contributors – from the largest positive contributor to the smallest – were private construction orders, value of machinery orders, and real exports FOB.  Negative contributors – from the largest negative contributor to the smallest – were stock prices, letter of credit arrivals, the (inverted) index of inventories to shipments, and the (inverted) yield of government public bonds.  

With the 0.9 percent increase in May, The Conference Board LEI for Korea now stands at 116.5 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in April and increased 0.3 percent in March.  During the six-month span through May, the leading economic index increased 3.9 percent, with five of the seven components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 71.4 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS.  Two of the four components that make up The Conference Board CEI for Korea increased in May.  The positive contributors were total employment and industrial production.  Monthly cash earnings and the wholesale and retail sales component declined in May.

With the 0.5 percent increase in May, The Conference Board CEI for Korea now stands at 112.1 (2004=100).  Based on revised data, this index increased 0.5 percent in April and remained unchanged in March. During the six-month span through May, the coincident economic index increased 1.4 percent, with two of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

DATA AVAILABILITY.  The data series used to compute The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for Korea reported in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. (ET) on July 12, 2010.  

* The series in the coincident economic index based on The Conference Board's estimates is monthly cash earnings.  There is no forecasted series in the leading economic index.

The next release is scheduled for Wednesday, August 11, 2010 at 10:00 A.M. (KST)

In the U.S – Tuesday, August 10, 2010 at 9:00 P.M (ET)

For more information, visit The Conference Board website: www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

SOURCE The Conference Board