Truck Sales to Prop Up New Vehicle Market in April, Forecasts Edmunds

Market share for pickup trucks expected to hit a new post-recession April high, giving a boost to an otherwise lackluster month for new vehicle sales

News provided by

Edmunds

Apr 24, 2019, 09:00 ET

SANTA MONICA, Calif., April 24, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The car shopping experts at Edmunds forecast that 1,357,024 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. in April for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.8 million. This reflects a 16.2% decrease in sales from March 2019 but a 0.3% increase from April 2018. Despite this month-over-month dip, Edmunds experts note that pickup sales were a bright spot. According to Edmunds data, market share for pickup trucks is expected to reach 17%, the highest April level since 2005.

"Even as interest rates and gas prices rise, there's no escaping the fact that Americans love their pickup trucks," said Jeremy Acevedo, Edmunds' manager of industry analysis. "Truck shoppers now have more choices than they have had in years thanks to a slew of new models arriving on dealer lots, which help April auto sales look a little healthier than they probably should."

In spite of strength in the truck segment, Edmunds experts note that slowing new vehicle sales overall are causing vehicles to stack up on dealer lots. Inventory levels in April are expected to hit above 4.1 million, reaching their highest level since June 2017.

"Manufacturers might start to spend more on incentives to move inventory as we head into the summer selling season," said Acevedo. "Deals have been hard for shoppers to come by so far this year, but there might be more deals to be found heading into Memorial Day weekend."

SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Sales Volume	April 2019 Forecast	April 2018	March 2019	Change from April 2018	Change from March 2019
GM*	236,613	238,000	271,000	-0.6%	-12.7%
Ford*	191,947	203,856	230,000	-5.8%	-16.5%
Toyota	191,596	192,348	214,945	-0.4%	-10.9%
Fiat Chrysler	172,908	184,149	200,307	-6.1%	-13.7%
Honda	125,401	125,701	148,509	-0.2%	-15.6%
Hyundai/Kia	105,629	106,648	118,442	-1.0%	-10.8%
Nissan	99,442	87,764	150,768	13.3%	-34.0%
VW/Audi	49,842	47,898	57,394	4.1%	-13.2%
Tesla	11,688	-	-	-	-
Industry	1,357,024	1,353,499	1,618,975	0.3%	-16.2%

*GM sales totals for April 2018 are estimated, GM & Ford sales totals for March 2019 are estimated

**NOTE: April 2019 had 25 selling days, April 2018 had 24 and March 2019 had 27.

Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 13.5 million vehicles in April 2019, with fleet transactions accounting for 19.5% of total sales. An estimated 3.4 million used vehicles will be sold in April 2019, for a SAAR of 39.1 million (compared to 3.7 million — or a SAAR of 39.2 million — in March).

MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER

Market Share	April 2019 Forecast	April 2018	March 2019	Change from April 2018	Change from March 2019
GM	17.4%	17.6%	16.8%	-0.1%	0.7%
Ford	14.1%	15.1%	14.2%	-0.9%	-0.1%
Toyota	14.1%	14.2%	13.3%	-0.1%	0.8%
Fiat Chrysler	12.7%	13.6%	12.4%	-0.9%	0.4%
Honda	9.2%	9.3%	9.2%	0.0%	0.1%
Hyundai/Kia	7.8%	7.9%	7.3%	-0.1%	0.5%
Nissan	7.3%	6.5%	9.3%	0.8%	-2.0%
VW/Audi	3.7%	3.5%	3.5%	0.1%	0.1%
Tesla	0.9%	-	-	-	-

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at http://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds

Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

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SOURCE Edmunds