Truflation forecasts U.S. headline CPI to ease to 3.9% as services inflation keeps core pressures sticky

New June inflation forecast points to easing energy and food prices, while healthcare, education, housing and other services continue to slow the final leg back to target

ZURICH, July 13, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Truflation, which provides independent, real-time CPI, inflation components, and macroeconomic indicators, today released its June U.S. inflation forecast, projecting that U.S. headline CPI edged up just 0.01% month-on-month in June, bringing the annual headline inflation rate down to 3.9% year-on-year.

While headline inflation is expected to moderate, Truflation's forecast suggests underlying price pressures remain more persistent. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, is projected to rise 0.26% month-on-month, holding the annual rate at 2.9% and underscoring the stickiness of services-led inflation.

Key findings from Truflation's June forecast include:

• Energy prices drove most of the headline moderation: Gasoline prices fell 7.9% in June as crude oil prices declined and geopolitical risk premiums eased.
• Food prices softened: Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages fell 0.4% month-on-month and were up just 0.4% year-on-year.
• Goods inflation continued to ease: Truflation's Goods Inflation measure declined 0.7% month-on-month, reflecting improved inventory conditions, easing supply-chain pressures and stronger pricing competition across consumer goods.
• Services inflation remained sticky: Services inflation rose 0.4% on the month, with price pressures concentrated in education, recreation and housing, while healthcare costs remained elevated year-on-year.
• Utilities and education were key sources of upward pressure: Utilities rose 2.2% month-on-month and 8.2% year-on-year as early summer temperatures boosted cooling demand across much of the United States. Education costs increased 0.7% on the month and 8.6% over the year.
• Communications prices rose on the month: Communications increased 1.2% month-on-month, though remained down 1.4% year-on-year, driven by higher cellular service prices and wireless carriers scaling back promotions.

Truflation's forecast is based on a daily inflation index drawing on more than 15 million product prices across 30+ data partners and sources. Its CPI forecasts have achieved 99.93% accuracy over the past 12 months, with last month's CPI forecast landing on the official Bureau of Labor Statistics headline number 24 hours before its release. Its independent inflation data is used by institutional market participants and is available through major financial data platforms, supporting demand for real-time, transparent economic indicators as policymakers and markets reassess how inflation is measured.

"Inflation does not wait for a monthly release cycle," said Stefan Rust, Founder and CEO of Truflation. "Prices are moving every day, but traditional inflation models are still largely built around delayed snapshots. That can make it harder to see turning points as they happen, especially when headline inflation is being pulled lower by energy and food while services remain stubborn.

The risk is that policymakers and markets end up reacting to where inflation was, rather than where it is heading. A constantly updated index like ours gives a clearer read on whether price pressures are actually broadening, easing or simply shifting from one part of the economy to another."

Looking ahead, Truflation expects headline inflation to keep drawing support from softer energy prices over the coming months. However, with wage growth still elevated and services inflation proving persistent, Truflation expects core inflation to remain around 2.6%–2.9% over the coming quarter, even as headline inflation gradually moderates. Leaving what it calls the final stretch back to the Federal Reserve's 2% target the slowest to travel.

The full CPI T-1 report, including supporting charts and tables, is available at https://truflation.com/t-1.

About Truflation

Truflation is an independent economic data provider delivering real-time inflation, CPI component and macroeconomic indicators across on-chain and off-chain environments. Its indexes draw on more than 30 million live price points daily from 60+ commercial and public data sources, providing a transparent and timely view of price changes across the economy.

Truflation's data helps individuals, investors, companies and institutions make more informed decisions using independent economic information. The platform also enables developers to build tools that help people track purchasing power, manage portfolios through changing macroeconomic conditions and support the next generation of blockchain-powered financial applications.

Learn more at https://truflation.com/

SOURCE Truflation