U.S. Home Values Show Biggest Quarterly Gain Since 2006, But Pace of Recovery is Uneven Across Markets

Many Political Battleground States Show Quarterly Declines, According to Zillow Real Estate Market Reports

Key facts:

- National home values rose 1.3 percent from the second to the third quarter - the biggest quarterly gain since March 2006, when home values rose 1.5 percent. This also marks the fourth consecutive quarter of increases.

- The Zillow® Home Value Forecast calls for home values to increase by 1.7 percent by the third quarter of 2013.

- However, the pace of the recovery is uneven across markets, as more metro areas showed decreasing quarterly values in the third quarter than in the second quarter as the home-buying season came to an end.

- Additionally, two in five of the states covered by the Zillow Real Estate Market Reports showed decreasing values in the third quarter. The electoral battleground states of New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin were among them.

News provided by

Zillow

Oct 23, 2012, 08:00 ET

SEATTLE, Oct. 23, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- U.S. home values rose 1.3 percent in the third quarter of 2012, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of increases. The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)[1] also rose on an annual basis, increasing 3.2 percent year-over-year to $153,800, according to Zillow's third quarter Real Estate Market Reports[2].

Looking ahead, the Zillow Home Value Forecast[3] shows U.S. home values will increase 1.7 percent over the next year, and that 183 of the 253 markets covered by the Forecast have hit a bottom. An additional 41 markets are expected to hit a bottom in the next year.

However, the pace of the recovery is uneven across markets. In the Phoenix metro area, for example, home values rose 5.9 percent quarter-over-quarter, and increased 20.4 percent year-over-year. But in the Atlanta metro, home values fell 2.2 percent quarter-over-quarter and 4.8 percent year-over-year.

Overall, more metro areas experienced home value declines in the third quarter, more than half (52 percent) showing declines in the third quarter, compared with one-third (34 percent) in the second quarter[4]. Zillow forecasts a saw-toothed bottom to the housing market, in which home values will log small rises and falls before returning to consistent monthly home value appreciation closer to the long-term historical average.

"We're likely seeing home values fall back into the negative range in some markets due to the close of the traditional home-buying season," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "While that doesn't mean the recovery has come off the rails – in fact, most markets have hit bottom – it does present a confusing environment for consumers. Looking forward, we expect to see home values bump along the bottom for some time, before increasing at a slow and steady pace."

Political Battleground States Experience Home Value Declines in Q3

On a state level, 17 of the 41 states covered by Zillow showed quarterly home values decreases. More than half of the nine electoral battleground states[5] – New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin – were among those showing quarterly declines.

"The positive news on a national level is dominating headlines, and perhaps that is why we haven't heard either presidential candidate talk in-depth about housing," Humphries said. "However, despite the national recovery, we are seeing significant polarization among markets, and more than half of battleground states still are experiencing home value declines. This demonstrates that for many pivotal voters who will decide the upcoming election, housing is still a key issue, and one that should be addressed by the candidates."

Metropolitan Areas	Zillow Home Value Index			Zillow Home Value Forecast
Metropolitan Areas	Q3 2012	Quarter- Over- Quarter Change	Year- Over- Year Change	Projected Bottom in Home Values	Change in ZHVI, Q3 2012- Q3 2013
United States	$153,800	1.3%	3.2%	Q4 2011	1.7%
New York	$340,600	-0.2%	-2.3%	--	-2.2%
Los Angeles	$397,000	2.1%	2.7%	Q1 2012	3.5%
Chicago	$162,600	0.1%	-3.2%	Q1 2012	-0.7%
Dallas-Ft. Worth, Texas	$126,500	-0.8%	1.7%	Q4 2011	1.3%
Philadelphia	$185,300	-0.6%	-2.1%	--	-0.6%
Washington DC	$316,300	1.0%	2.7%	Q1 2011	1.1%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Fla.	$149,700	2.7%	7.9%	Q4 2011	3.8%
Atlanta	$111,400	-2.2%	-4.8%	--	-1.1%
Boston	$312,100	0.4%	2.0%	Q4 2011	-0.1%
San Francisco	$497,600	3.2%	7.3%	Q1 2012	3.8%
Detroit	$78,700	1.2%	6.4%	Q4 2011	1.4%
Riverside, Calif.	$187,800	2.1%	3.8%	Q1 2012	6.2%
Phoenix	$149,400	5.9%	20.4%	Q3 2011	8.5%
Seattle	$263,500	1.0%	2.6%	Q1 2012	1.8%
Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.	$170,700	0.8%	3.1%	Q1 2012	1.1%
San Diego	$356,100	3.2%	4.3%	Q1 2012	3.4%
Tampa, Fla.	$110,900	1.5%	4.0%	Q4 2011	1.2%
St. Louis	$123,700	-1.1%	-2.1%	Q1 2013	-1.5%
Baltimore	$219,800	0.8%	1.0%	Q1 2012	0.7%
Denver	$221,000	3.8%	8.8%	Q2 2011	1.9%
Pittsburgh	$109,400	0.2%	1.6%	Q1 2009	0.9%
Portland, Ore.	$224,300	2.3%	4.8%	Q3 2011	2.9%
Sacramento, Calif.	$210,900	2.9%	3.4%	Q1 2012	5.6%
Orlando, Fla.	$122,500	0.4%	2.9%	Q1 2012	1.1%
Cincinnati, Oh	$123,100	-0.6%	0.3%	Q1 2012	-0.2%
Cleveland	$108,900	-1.1%	-1.3%	Q1 2013	-0.2%
Las Vegas	$121,500	3.9%	7.0%	Q1 2012	0.1%
San Jose	$599,800	3.5%	9.7%	Q2 2009	4.2%
Columbus	$124,500	-0.3%	0.6%	Q1 2012	0.8%
Charlotte	$135,200	0.8%	1.7%	Q2 2011	-0.3%

The full national report, in its interactive format, will be available at www.zillow.com/local-info on Tuesday, Oct. 23. Additionally, in most areas data is available at the state, metro, county, city, ZIP code and neighborhood level.

Further analysis from Dr. Stan Humphries can be found on Zillow Real Estate Research, at http://www.zillow.com/research.

About Zillow, Inc.
Zillow (NASDAQ: Z) is the leading real estate information marketplace, providing vital information about homes, real estate listings and mortgages through its website and mobile applications, enabling homeowners, buyers, sellers and renters to connect with real estate and mortgage professionals best suited to meet their needs. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow's Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. Dr. Humphries and his team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 350 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow, Inc. operates Zillow.com®, Zillow Mortgage Marketplace,Zillow Rentals, Zillow Mobile, Postlets® and Diverse Solutions®. The company is headquartered in Seattle.

Zillow.com, Zillow, Zestimate, Postlets and Diverse Solutions are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc.

[1] The Zillow Home Value Index is the median Zestimate® valuation for a given geographic area on a given day and includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums and cooperatives, regardless of whether they sold within a given period. The Home Value Index at the national level includes data from over 80 million homes in almost 3,000 counties and over 850 core-based statistical areas. It is expressed in dollars and is for a particular geographic region.

[2] The data in Zillow's Real Estate Market Reports is aggregated from public sources by a number of data providers for over 900 core-based statistical areas dating back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data is typically recorded in each county and publicly available through a county recorder's office.

[3] The Zillow Home Value Forecast uses data from past home value trends and current market conditions, including leading indicators like home sales, months of housing inventory supply and unemployment, to predict home values over the next 12 months for the nation and for 150+ markets across the country.

[4] The metro-level Zillow Home Value Index is calculated for 366 individual core-based statistical areas.

[5] Battleground states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin, as sourced from The New York Times' online electoral map. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map on Friday, Oct. 19, 2012.

SOURCE Zillow