100G Poised to Take Center Stage in 2011, Says Heavy Reading

An explosion of field trial activity, product announcements and commercial shipments in 2011 will prime the market for serious commercial action in 2012, new report finds

Mar 02, 2011, 12:00 ET from Light Reading Communications Network

NEW YORK, March 2, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- 100Gbit/s transport is finally set to move to center stage, with an explosion of field trial activity, product announcements and commercial shipments from leading transport equipment vendors coming in 2011, according to a major new report from Heavy Reading (www.heavyreading.com), the research division of Light Reading (www.lightreading.com).

100Gbit/s Transport: Forecast & Analysis tackles the challenges and opportunities of high-speed DWDM transport, in both long haul and metro, with a focus on 100G. The report presents a comprehensive forecast of the 40G and 100G transport opportunities, with breakouts by port speed, revenue share, line and client side, and more. In addition, this report tallies 100G trial and commercial deployment activity by supplier and operator and includes detailed profiles of the leading 100G transport suppliers and their customers.

The report is based in part on in-depth interviews with leading equipment suppliers, component and subsystems manufacturers, standards organizations and network operators, between August 2010 and February 2011. Based on these in-depth interviews, we produced profiles of the six major high-speed DWDM transport vendors.

For a full list of the 100G transport equipment vendors profiled in this report, click here: http://img.lightreading.com/heavyreading/pdf/hr20110302_companies.pdf

"Operators view 100G as a mass-market backbone transport technology to ultimately replace 10G, not as a niche," says Sterling Perrin, Senior Analyst of Heavy Reading and author of the report. "In a Heavy Reading survey, network capacity exhaust and better economics compared with 10G were identified as two of the top three drivers for 100G transport. Historically, when these drivers are met, transport technology becomes a mass-market or 'default' solution in the network."

Although we will see very little commercial activity before 2012, now is the time for suppliers to engage their customers about 100G products and roadmaps, Perrin cautions. "Heavy Reading surveys reveal that nearly 45 percent of network operators expect to make purchasing decisions on 100G by the end of 2011. Another third said the decision would be made in 2012. Now even staunch 40G proponents realize that 100G is the technology endgame, and that even 40G opportunities will be severely limited without a solid 100G roadmap in place."

Key findings of 100Gbit/s Transport: Forecast & Analysis include the following:

Ciena and Alcatel-Lucent are the leaders in 100G at this very early stage, with each vendor shipping 100G transport systems for revenue. Combined, the two vendors count seven commercial customers and two dozen field trials to date. Behind Alcatel-Lucent and Ciena, we see both Huawei (the leader in 40G transport) and Infinera aggressively pursuing 100G.

Operators view 100G as a means to scale their networks without boosting spending. This means that operators will continue to expect more bandwidth for significantly lower cost per bit, just as they did in moving from 2.5G to 10G. Most operators have signaled their preference for 100G pricing at 5x 10G pricing, or ten times more bandwidth at twice the price.

DP-QPSK modulation with coherent detection will be the de facto standard for long-haul 100G DWDM transport. For 100G, suppliers set out to learn from the mistakes made developing 40G – most prominently, the non-standardized approach to modulation. The Optical Internetworking Forum took the lead in defining dual-polarization quadrature phase shift keying (DP-QPSK) modulation with coherent detection as the best approach to long-haul DWDM transport and, for the most part, the industry followed this recommendation.

The long-haul market will dominate 100G deployments over the next five years. Some of the earliest 100G deployments are in the metro, particularly geared at trading applications in the financial industry. While trading will remain an important application for 100G, we think the largest opportunity, by far, will be in long-haul transport. We therefore forecast a shift in 100G from 2011 onward, as operators begin deploying standardized 100G in their long-haul networks.

100Gbit/s Transport: Forecast & Analysis is essential reading for a wide range of industry participants, including the following:

  • Network operators: Which technology providers are best positioned to serve your needs for high-speed DWDM transport equipment? How far along are your competitors in evaluating suppliers, running field trials, and deploying equipment? Which standards groups and initiatives are most important in shaping the 40G and 100G market? Which modulation formats and techniques will vendors employ for high-speed DWDM transport?
  • Equipment vendors: What transport capabilities are network operators most interested in, and on what timeframe? How does your high-speed DWDM transport equipment portfolio compare to those of your competitors? What pricing will network operators expect for 40G and 100G equipment, as compared with 2.5G and 10G? Which modulation schemes will be used for 40G and 100G transport, and how will that shape the market going forward?
  • Investors: Which technology suppliers are best placed to benefit from the transition to higher-speed DWDM transport equipment? How is the business case for 100G transport being made, and how can it be made more compelling? When do network operators expect to make purchasing decisions for higher-speed transport equipment, and how will that influence winners and losers in this dynamic market?

100Gbit/s Transport: Forecast & Analysis costs $3,995 and is published in PDF format. The price includes an enterprise license covering all of the employees at the purchaser's company.

For more information, or to request a free executive summary, contact:

Dave Williams

Sales Director, Heavy Reading



Press/analyst contact:

Jennifer Baker

Marketing Director, Light Reading Communications Network



About Heavy Reading (www.heavyreading.com)

Heavy Reading is an independent market research organization offering quantitative analysis of telecom technology to carriers, service providers, and vendors. Our remit is to provide the comprehensive competitive analysis needed today for the deployment of profitable networks based on next-generation hardware and software. This information is compiled via exhaustive surveys of both vendors' products and service-provider decision makers.

About Light Reading Communications Network (www.lightreading.com)

Founded in 2000, the Light Reading Communications Network is the world's leading research-led integrated media company serving the global communications market. Lightreading.com is the ultimate source for technological and financial analysis of the communications industry, leading the media sector in terms of traffic, content, and reputation. Light Reading's research arms, Heavy Reading and Pyramid Research, provide the most comprehensive communications research, market data, and technology analysis in close to 100 markets around the world. Light Reading produces nearly 20 targeted communications events including TelcoTV, and TelcoTV Asia, Ethernet Expo New York and Ethernet Europe, and The Tower Summit @ CTIA, as well as focused one-day events tailored for cable, mobile, and wireline executives in the US, Europe, India, and China. Light Reading was acquired by United Business Media in August 2005 and operates as a unit of UBM TechWeb.

SOURCE Light Reading Communications Network