2020 Amigo Loans Company Profile: Historic Financial Performance, Financial Projections, Valuation & Sensitivity Analysis

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Research and Markets

Aug 05, 2020, 13:00 ET

DUBLIN, Aug. 5, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The "Amigo Loans: Expect c. £206M Customer Redress Costs & Lifetime Principal Loan Loss Rate c. 33%" company profile has been added to ResearchAndMarkets.com's offering.

Why Read?

  • Understand how we estimate Amigo's total customer redress / conduct costs across Amigo's FOS customer complaints / FCA VReq, Amigo-specific FCA Investigation and FCA multi-firm review of the guarantor loan sector at c. 206m
  • Understand how we estimate Amigo's loan losses on Q3 20 Stage 1 gross customer loans at 33%
  • Understand how Amigo's Securitization Facility works and the strong loan putback and acceleration rights this benefits from, making the 7.625 1/2024 Senior Secured Notes (SSNs) heavily subordinated here (unless Amigo files imminently for administration)
  • Understand how, from our estimated run-off cash flows, we arrive at a base case recovery on Amigo's SSNs of 37 cents with a liability management exercise potentially improving this to 44 cents
  • Understand plays that SSNs holders may be able to pursue to seniorise their position vs customer redress claims and potentially against the putback rights of the Securitisation Facility
  • Understand why there may be value in Amigo's SSNs should they drop below 30 cents
  • Understand why none of Non-Standard Finance, Provident Financial or New Day is likely to acquire Amigo in the near term
  • Understand Richmond Group / Mr Bennamor's likely current thinking on Amigo / the UK guarantor loans market and what possible plays he may make after selling down his stake in Amigo to zero
  • Understand why we believe it will ultimately be Amigo's top-up / repeat lending that brings about its demise, both in terms of potential FCA actions beyond the current FOS backlog / FCA Vreq and in terms of latent asset quality problems
  • Understand why Amigo's historic financials, whether seen as a corporate or bank, including steady state FCF assuming a constant loan book, were flawed as an indicator of the strength of the business
  • Comparison of Amigo vs Non-Standard Finance (UK's # 1 and #2 guarantor lenders respectively)

What's New?

  • Estimated total customer redress / conduct costs
  • Estimated lifetime loan losses on Amigo's loan book as part of run-off cash flow modelling
  • Securitisation Facility analysis
  • Loan loss analysis for Amigo during after the global financial crisis

Questions Answered

  • What does Amigo's COVID-19 forbearance and funding position disclosure post Q3 20 imply for its current level of arrears loans?
  • How instrumental has repeat lending been in masking unaffordable loans (from the borrower / guarantor perspective) and in inflating Amigo's historic profitability and (steady state) FCF?
  • What can we learn from the Brighthouse and Wonga cases in terms of customer redress cost potential at Amigo?
  • What should SSNs holders do to try and protect their position vs customer redress claims and putback rights of the Securitisation Facility?
  • How severe could loan losses end up for Amigo, given its COVID-19 forbearance programme (and FCA forbearance requirements now extending to Oct-20), weak macro, lack of repeat lending currently that might otherwise mask asset quality problems, deliberate non-payment by borrowers and guarantors and lower liquidity in UK the guarantor loans market (which would otherwise enable some borrower refinancing) with Non-Standard Finance currently in breach of its own Securitisation Facility covenants?

Key Topics Covered

  1. View, Variant Perception & Recommendations
  2. Historic Financial Performance
  3. Financial Projections
  4. Valuation & Sensitivity Analysis
  5. Yildirim Stake Sale & IPO Potential
  6. Stress Testing CMA CGM
  7. CMA CGM's Previous Debt Restructurings
  8. Business & Industry Overview

Companies Mentioned

  • Amigo
  • Non-Standard Finance
  • Richmond Group
  • Brighthouse
  • Wonga
  • Provident Financial
  • New Day

For more information about this company profile visit https://www.researchandmarkets.com/r/vadbp8

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SOURCE Research and Markets