A Trump Decision to Run is Better for Some Biden-Challengers Than Others
Only 3 Democrats Beat or Tie Trump
Philosopher Jerome Segal Would Tie Trump, Poll Shows Wide Support for Bread and Roses Socialism
WASHINGTON, Nov. 15, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- If Donald Trump announces that he will seek the Republican nomination for President, the question, "Can he/she beat Trump?" will become the necessary hurdle to be cleared by any potential challenger to Joe Biden in the Democratic Party. Only 2 of the alternatives to Biden, (of those for whom there is polling data), cross that hurdle.
In 2020, Biden's victory over Bernie Sanders rested largely on the judgement that he had a greater chance of defeating Trump.
Polls have been inconclusive as to whether Joe Biden can beat Trump again. An averaging of polls, as calculated by Real Clear Politics, shows them tied, with Biden getting 44.5% and Trump getting 44.3%.
Democratic Opponent | Trump | Poll (most recent) | |
Biden | 44.5 % | 44.3 % | Real Clear Politics average of polls |
Gavin Newsom | 45 % | 43 % | YouGov/Yahoo News |
Jerome Segal | 40 % | 39 % | Zogby |
Bernie Sanders | 40 % | 45 % | Emerson College |
Kamala Harris | 38 % | 45 % | Redfield and Wilton Strategies |
Pete Buttigieg | 39 % | 49 % | McLaughlin |
Hilary Clinton | 41 % | 51 % | McLaughlin |
Source: Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#General_election_polling (hypothetical polling)
The polling showed three Democrats tying or beating Trump, (Joe Biden, Gavin Newsom and Jerome Segal) and Trump beating four others (Harris, Sanders, Clinton and Buttigieg).
The big surprise is the presence of Segal in the top three. Segal, a philosopher, is a long-time peace activist and the formulator of bread and roses socialism which calls for the 3-day workweek option. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jerome_Segal
Although the author of seven books, Segal is, by far, the least well known of the candidates. Newsweek was the only major publication to cover his announcement of candidacy.
https://www.newsweek.com/jerome-segal-announces-2024-presidential-run-democratic-nomination-1727751
In the Zogby poll, before being asked about Segal, interviewees were asked their views on multiple aspects of bread and roses socialism. There was broad support, especially among Democrats. This is the likely basis of his strong showing.
Bread and roses socialism, rather than pursuing the classic socialist objective of ending private ownership of the means of production, seeks equal ownership of corporate stock and "shrinking capitalism" in our lives through simple living and economic policies that enable people to "take back their time" by choosing to work less, even if it means lower income for some. It calls for policies to lower the cost of meeting basic needs, and giving workers the right to determine their own workweek.
Asked about bread and roses socialism, 62% said they "love it or like it," and 38% said they "dislike it or hate it." (Of those who expressed an opinion.)
Among Democrats who expressed an opinion, 84% say they "love it or like it" and a mere 16% say they "dislike or hate it."
The poll also asked about specific policies from Segal's bread and roses agenda:
All Voters | All Voters | All Voters (of those expressing an opinion) | Democrats (of those expressing an opinion) | |
"Support or strongly support" | "Oppose or strongly oppose" | "Support or strongly support" | "Support or strongly support" | |
Zero interest Mortgages for building small and tiny homes so one can be mortgage-free in 10 years | 55 % | 22 % | 71 % | 89 % |
Greater equality of outcomes. Gradual re-distribution of wealth to equalize household ownership of corporate stock. | 45 % | 39 % | 54 % | 79 % |
Manufacturing very low-cost electric vehicles, even if we need a government owned company to do it. Then subsidize them and sell to low-income families for $3000, thus reducing the need for income and labor time. | 48 % | 30 % | 63 % | 84 % |
Making gasoline a public utility; fighting inflation by price controls. | 50 % | 33 % | 60 % | 83 % |
To interview Dr. Segal: [email protected] or 445-216-3846
SOURCE Jerome Segal
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