Americans Deliver Verdicts on the U.S. Supreme Court

NEW YORK, Oct. 1, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- October has arrived once again, and with it comes the impending return of the U.S. Supreme Court, which begins its new term next Monday. In anticipation of this, The Harris Poll asked Americans to deliberate on the nation's highest court, and found that despite two-thirds of Americans (68%) feeling it's a crucial governing body for the success of the United States, nearly half of Americans (47%, up from 42% in 2010) say they are not knowledgeable about the Supreme Court confirmation process.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll® of 2,537 adults surveyed online between August 13 and 18, 2014. (Full results, including data tables, available here)

Just over half of Americans (53%, down from 58% in 2010) indicate being that they're knowledgeable about the process, with one in ten (11%) saying specifically that they are very knowledgeable about it and just over four in ten (42%) saying they're somewhat knowledgeable. Generational and gender gaps both emerge on this:

• Gen Xers (57%) and Baby Boomers (58%) are both more likely than Millennials (45%) to consider themselves knowledgeable.
• Men (68%) are considerably more likely than women (40%) to indicate that they are knowledgeable.

Q&A

While there are no Supreme Court confirmations on the immediate horizon, which Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has been confirming for her part in recent interviews, the need can arise unpredictably. As such, it's important to examine the confirmation process, beginning with the topics they should or should not be expected to discuss during their Congressional interviews. Over eight in ten Americans (84%, up slightly from 81% in 2010) believe Supreme Court nominees should be required to answer questions about their views on specific issues, while nearly three-fourths (73%) feel they should be required to discuss their political affiliations, and nearly two-thirds (65%, up slightly from 63% in 2010) feel they should be required to indicate how they would vote in specific past and hypothetical court cases. Americans seem to be more invested in nominees' personal lives than in 2010, as the percentage believing nominees should be required to answer questions about their personal lives has risen from 54% in 2010 to 61% today.

The expectation that nominees should discuss their personal lives is an especially divisive one:

• Fewer than half of Millennials agree they should be required to answer questions about their personal lives (48%), compared to roughly two-thirds of Gen Xers (64%) and Baby Boomers (68%), and three-fourths of Matures (74%).
• Looking at the political spectrum, Republicans are far more likely than either Democrats or Independents to agree candidates should have to answer such questions (73%, 58% and 59%, respectively).

Also on the subject of the selection process, nearly half of Americans (48%) believe it would be better if Supreme Court justices were elected to office, with 36% disagreeing and 16% unsure.

Constitutional purist or independent thinker?

When asked what type of person they'd most like to see on the Supreme Court, a plurality (48%, down slightly from 51% in 2010) opted for a jurist who keeps their personal opinions of "right" and "wrong" to themselves and makes decisions strictly based on the letter of the law and the Constitution. One-third of Americans (32%, identical to 2010 findings) say they would prefer an independent thinker who uses creativity and an understanding of modern circumstances to inform their legal rulings, while one in ten (9%, up from 6% in 2010) say they'd want someone who uses their own values or moral compass to guide their decisions. An additional one in ten are not at all sure what type of person they prefer (11%, same as in 2010).

• Generational divides again emerge. The jurist making decisions based strictly on the letter of the law and the Constitution is the top selection, followed by the independent thinker, for matures (67% and 25%, respectively), Baby Boomers (55% and 30%, respectively) and Gen Xers (49% and 33%, respectively). Meanwhile, Millennials are more likely to opt for the independent thinker (37% by a narrow margin over the constitutional and legal "literalist" (34%)
• Differences are also apparent by political party, with a clear majority of Republicans (64%) preferring a justice be a literalist over an independent thinker (16%) or someone who looks to their own values to guide their decisions (12%).  Independents are more split, with nearly half (48%) preferring a literalist and over one-third (36%) preferring an independent thinker. Democrats veer further still from Republicans' viewpoint, with a plurality (44%) indicating a preference for the independent thinker while 38% opt for the literalist.

Representativeness and the appointment of a lifetime

Seven in ten Americans believe that the makeup of the Supreme Court should fairly represent Americans' diverse socioeconomic backgrounds (71%) and that it should fairly represent the demographic makeup of the United States (70%). Democrats are more likely than either Republicans or Independents to support both of these statements (Socioeconomic – 82% Democrats vs. 64% Republicans and 68% Independents / Demographic – 82% vs. 61% and 67%, respectively).

Seven in ten U.S. adults also believe that Supreme Court justices should not have lifetime appointments. Interestingly, objection to the lifetime appointment is lowest among the youngest generations (63% Millennials, vs. 71% Gen Xers, 73% Baby Boomers and 76% Matures).

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Methodology

This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between August 13 and 18, 2014 among 2,537 2,306 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, The Harris Poll avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Poll surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in our panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of The Harris Poll.

Product and brand names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective owners.

The Harris Poll^® #90, October 1, 2014
By Larry Shannon-Missal, Managing Editor, The Harris Poll

About The Harris Poll®
Begun in 1963, The Harris Poll is one of the longest running surveys measuring public opinion in the U.S. and is highly regarded throughout the world. The nationally representative polls, conducted primarily online, measure the knowledge, opinions, behaviors and motivations of the general public. New and trended polls on a wide variety of subjects including politics, the economy, healthcare, foreign affairs, science and technology, sports and entertainment, and lifestyles are published weekly. For more information, or to see other recent polls, visit the Harris Poll News Room.

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SOURCE The Harris Poll