As New Congress Nears, Do Americans See Midterm Election Outcome as a Good Thing? A Bad Thing? Or are they Unsure? Yes.

NEW YORK, Dec. 22, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- A new year is on the horizon – and with it a new U.S. Congress, with Republican majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. In the weeks since the midterms the pundits have all provided their respective two cents as to the reasoning behind the election results and what it will mean for the political landscape and the United States as a whole. But what do the American people think? When asked in a broad manner about the recent congressional elections, a third each believe the outcome is a good thing (33%) and a bad thing (34%) for America, with an additional third unsure (33%).

• While a predictable majority of Republicans see it as a good thing (67%) and an equally foreseeable majority of Democrats see it as a bad thing (58%), Independents are split: 31% each characterize the results as a good thing and as a bad thing, with the remaining 38% not sure.

These are some of the results of The Harris Poll® of 2,255 adults surveyed online between December 10 and 15, 2014.

Americans remain divided when asked more specifically whether it is good or bad for the country to have a president and a majority in Congress belonging to different parties, with 33% seeing it as good, 31% as bad and 36% unsure. The executive and legislative branches of our government have spent much of their time at one impasse or another in recent years, and this may have contributed to the worsening perception of a divided government. The 33% seeing it as good represents a six point decline from the 39% recorded in December 2010, the last time the question was asked; meanwhile, the 31% perceiving it as bad represents 8 points' growth from December 2010's 23%.

Collaboration concerns

One factor which may be leading many Americans to question whether a divided government will be an effective one is collaboration – or rather, a lack thereof.

Americans are divided on whether President Obama will try to work with Republicans in Congress, with 46% agreeing he will and 44% disagreeing; 10% are unsure. Political breakouts on this question show expected leanings, with 75% of Democrats feeling he will, 78% of Republicans feeling he won't and Independents divided (43% agree that he will while 44% disagree).

• More telling is the drop in this perception compared to December 2010, just after President Obama's re-election; the 46% believing the president will try to work with Republicans in Congress represents a 16-point drop since the 62% observed at that time.

While Americans may be divided on whether Obama will try to work with Republicans in Congress, nearly six in ten Americans (58%) concur that Republicans in Congress will not try to work with him; 31% - down 6 points from 37% in December 2010 – feel Republicans in Congress will attempt to work with the president.

• Just over half of Republicans (52%) anticipate their party-mates in Congress will try to work with the president, while majorities of both Democrats (75%) and Independents (58%) disagree.

When you add up all this uncertainty given the partisan divisions between the White House and Congress, it may not come as a surprise that only a fourth of Americans (25%) are confident that the government will do what needs to be done for the country; two-thirds of Americans (67%) are not confident, while 8% are unsure. Confidence is especially low among Independents (19%, vs. 31% Republicans and 27% Democrats).

Room for improvement – lots of it

Americans' lack of confidence that their leaders will be able to work together may be reflective of poor impressions of these leaders overall.

The survey – which was fielded prior to President Obama's decision to ease restrictions on Cuba last week – found a third of Americans (33%) giving the president positive ratings on the overall job he's doing and two-thirds (67%) assigning negative marks. Looking more specifically at how he's doing in regards to the economy, 34% give the president positive ratings, 66% negative. Positive ratings are down a bit from November, when 35% each gave him positive ratings overall and for the job he was doing on the economy.

It's unlikely to surprise anyone following politics to hear that positive ratings for Congress continue to hover in the single digits (7% to be precise, down slightly from 8% in October), while a strong majority of Americans (93%) give them negative marks. The only marginal gift under Congress' collective tree this month is that their positive ratings are up a bit from December of last year, when only 5% gave them positive marks.

• No major surprises emerge when looking at approval ratings along political lines – majorities of Democrats give the president positive marks for his job performance both overall (62%) and in regards to the economy (61%), while majorities of both Republicans (94% both overall and economy) and Independents (69% overall, 67% economy) give him negative marks on both these measures.
• Also unsurprising is the uniformity with which Americans rate Congress negatively (94% Republicans, 91% Democrats, 94% Independents).

Given all of these negative and pessimistic responses, it will likely surprise few to learn that seven in ten Americans (70%) believe things in the country have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track, while three in ten (30%) think that things are going in the right direction.

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TABLE 1
ELECTION OUTCOME
"Thinking about the recent Congressional elections, do you believe that the outcome is a good or bad thing for the United States?"

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 2a
DIVIDED GOVERNMENT
"Overall, do you think it is good or bad for the country to have a president and a majority in Congress belonging to different parties?"

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 2b
DIVIDED GOVERNMENT - TREND
"Overall, do you think it is good or bad for the country to have a president and a majority in Congress belonging to different parties?"

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 3
OBAMA WORKING WITH REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS
"To what extent do you agree that President Obama will try to work with the Republicans in Congress?"

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 4
REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESS WORKING WITH PRESIDENT OBAMA
"To what extent do you agree that the Republicans in Congress will try to work with President Obama?"

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 5
CONFIDENCE IN GOVERNMENT
"Given the division between the power in the White House and the majority power in [2010: the House of Representatives / 2014: Congress], how confident are you that the government will do what needs to be done for the country?"

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 6a
PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING - TREND
"How would you rate the overall job President Barack Obama is doing?"

Base: All adults

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.  **Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 6b
PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING – BY PARTY & IDEOLOGY
"How would you rate the overall job President Barack Obama is doing?"

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
* indicates a response rate of <0.5%
-- Indicates this response was not selected

TABLE 7a
PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING ON THE ECONOMY - TREND
"Now, turning to something different, how would you rate the overall job that President Barack Obama is doing on the economy?"

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding; *In February 2012 "Not at all sure" was offered as a response choice and 4% responded in that way.

TABLE 7b
PRESIDENT OBAMA'S JOB RATING ON THE ECONOMY – By Political Party and Generation
"Now, turning to something different, how would you rate the overall job that President Barack Obama is doing on the economy?"

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

TABLE 8a
CONGRESS' OVERALL JOB RATING
"How would you rate the overall job Congress is doing?"

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
* indicates a response rate of <0.5%
-- Indicates this response was not selected

TABLE 8b
CONGRESS' OVERALL JOB RATING – Trend
"How would you rate the overall job Congress is doing?"

Base: All adults

*Positive = excellent or pretty good.  **Negative = only fair or poor.

TABLE 9a
RIGHT DIRECTION OR WRONG TRACK – TREND
"Generally speaking, would you say things in the country are going in the right direction or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?"

Base: All adults

TABLE 9b
RIGHT DIRECTION OR WRONG TRACK – By Political Party and Generation
"Generally speaking, would you say things in the country are going in the right direction or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?"

Base: All adults

Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

Methodology
This Harris Poll was conducted online, in English, within the United States between December 10 and 15, 2014 among 2,255 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.

All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, The Harris Poll avoids the words "margin of error" as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Poll surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in our panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of The Harris Poll.

The Harris Poll^® #115, December 22, 2014
By Larry Shannon-Missal, Managing Director, The Harris Poll

About The Harris Poll® 
Begun in 1963, The Harris Poll is one of the longest running surveys measuring public opinion in the U.S. and is highly regarded throughout the world. The nationally representative polls, conducted primarily online, measure the knowledge, opinions, behaviors and motivations of the general public. New and trended polls on a wide variety of subjects including politics, the economy, healthcare, foreign affairs, science and technology, sports and entertainment, and lifestyles are published weekly. For more information, or to see other recent polls, visit the Harris Poll News Room.

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