Ascend Analytics Publishes Inaugural Energy Transition Predictions

Load growth, grid modernization, renewable innovation, emerging market structures and new national leadership drive predictions for 2025

BOULDER, Colo., Jan. 14, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Ascend Analytics ("Ascend"), the leading provider of market intelligence and analytics solutions for the energy transition, today announced the publication of its inaugural Energy Transition Predictions. At a time of historic political transition in the United States, Ascend's dynamic modeling DNA serves as an objective guide for power market participants navigating heightened macro uncertainty.

Inspired by this spirit of predicting market outcomes, Ascend's economists, analysts and strategists consider the possibilities ahead for the energy transition in 2025. Grounded in long-term macro-trends, yet influenced by a near-term change in the federal administration, the predictions explore 10 themes. A more in-depth discussion can be found at: https://www.ascendanalytics.com/2025trends.

1. Tariffs Trump IRA Repeal Concerns - All the talk about an IRA repeal will be a red herring for near-term projects. Tariffs are more likely to have a greater impact both on project costs and secondary effects on interest rates.
2. Load Growth Waits for No One, Except Itself - Projected load growth remains steep enough that the market will desperately need new supply resources—and beggars can't be choosers. Load growth will likely hit the hardest in 2026 and beyond, but look to 2025 for the year when big tech's money will get the ball rolling on meeting demand. 
3. AI, Crypto, and ... Cannabis - AI and crypto load growth are getting the headlines, but don't ignore cannabis farms as another energy-hungry player competing for resources.
4. A New Data Center Alley: ERCOT Expands Into SPP - While ERCOT has started to earn its title as the next data center alley, 2025 will see the alley expand north into SPP, with its significant overgeneration in wind pockets, strong wind and solar resources, and complementary wind and solar profiles. 
5. For Whom the Battery Tolls? - Competitive pressures and falling battery costs will keep tolling prices lean and limited to more regulated markets. However, corporates may see competitive advantages to hedge capacity, advance toward 24x7 green, and realize the emission benefits of storage.
6. Off Grid is Not Just for Hippies - Constrained supply infrastructure and growing line charges will compel new loads to look for expedient self-supply. Industrial load, and especially big tech, may explore the potential of taking their load expansion plans behind the meter and supplying power on-site. 
7. New Year, New Peak Period - Make way for the super-peak period, with the post-sunset hours from 6 to 10 pm increasingly becoming the most expensive and riskiest.
8. Offshore Wind Sails Stall - Potential federal policy changes and continued economic challenges may lead to further headwinds in developing the offshore wind industry. Yet, there are clear winners: existing thermal plants once slated for retirement gain a second wind, while early movers in offshore wind now earn stronger competitive moats around their value.
9. A Long Wait for Long Duration - Current long-duration options are either too expensive or not efficient enough to operate profitably. Taken with the failure of existing market structures and a renewed interest in new thermal development and nuclear, long-duration energy storage becomes a tough sell to an increasingly cost sensitive rate base.
10. Energy Territories Get Nasty - Throughout the West, renewable growth, fossil fuel retirements, and shifting load patterns are incentivizing additional cooperation, but despite stronger transmission ties to California, mistrust and competing markets could turn undecided utilities into additional adopters of SPP Markets+. 

"Ascend's clients rely on our analytical rigor and objective economic insights to navigate the energy transition's evolving complexities," said Gary Dorris, Chief Executive Officer of Ascend. "In launching the Energy Transition Predictions, we've injected some creativity in imagining how different scenarios in the energy transition might play out against the backdrop of an especially uncertain political environment. What's certain, however, is the macro trends on which they're based will continue to be the fundamental drivers of power market opportunity and value creation in the year ahead."

The full Energy Transition Predictions 2025 are available at https://www.ascendanalytics.com/2025trends, and interested parties are encouraged to connect with Ascend's experts for additional exploration of specific predictions or the macro trends shaping them.

About Ascend Analytics
Ascend Analytics is the leading provider of market intelligence and analytics solutions for the energy transition. The company's offerings enable decision makers in power supply, procurement, and investment markets to plan, operate, monetize, and manage risk for renewable energy and storage assets. From real-time to 30-year horizons, their forecasts and insights are at the foundation of over $50 billion in project financing assessments. Ascend provides energy market stakeholders with the clarity and confidence to successfully navigate the rapidly shifting energy landscape.

SOURCE Ascend Analytics