Auto Retail In 2025: Four Quarters, Four Different Markets

Shift Digital Releases What 2025's Volatility Could Mean for Auto Dealers In 2026

BIRMINGHAM, Mich., March 10, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- In a year of continuous pivots, 2025 didn't deliver one market correction for auto dealers, it delivered four.

Shift Digital, the leader in digital marketing measurement and activation, has released a new report, providing learnings from 2025's impact on auto retail and how that should shape strategies for 2026, where many unknowns still exist.

"By the fourth quarter of 2025, online shopping for auto dealers flatlined with form completion rates dropping by 18 percent," said Matt VanDyke, President of Shift Digital. "It was the culmination of a rollercoaster year that didn't have just one significant change but something new each quarter. While no one possesses a crystal ball for 2026, the dramatic 2025 situations for dealers might have provided foreshadowing."

VanDyke highlights the quarterly evolution of 2025, noting:

• First quarter found demand increase ahead of anticipated price increases due to tariffs.
• The second quarter produced tariffs, furthering affordability concerns.
• In early July, Congress passed a bill to phase out the $7500 federal new EV credit by the end of September 2025. As a result, the third quarter saw a spike in shopping/sales to get ahead of the deadline.
• By the fourth quarter, customers were in "wait-and-see" mode, and new vehicle interest softened due to near-all-time high industry pricing.

Shift Digital's latest report reveals the following:

Dealer Websites Rule
Despite quarterly ripple effects, leads from dealer websites closed to sales at 11.8% in 2025, a full percentage point better than in 2024.  Leads from brand websites closed at 7%, also outperforming 2024 in close rate, while leads sourced from third parties languished in a distant third place at 2.2%.

"First impressions build a foundation of trust for the consumer considering a vehicle purchase," said Dan Reynolds, who heads Shift Digital's Advanced Analytics team. "Dealers need to dedicate the time and resources to ensure their websites combine compelling imagery, intuitive navigation, the right calls to action (CTAs), and use tools that engage shoppers through the correct sequence of value exchanges."

Get your Lead Gates in Order
According to Shift Digital's report, a proactive dealer should review "lead gates" on its website to increase the likelihood of the form completion rate.   Lead Gates are strategic digital "check points" requiring a website visitor to submit contact information before accessing additional information, such as available discounts, trade-in information or specific pricing.

Lead capture and close rates depend on sequence. Offer value first, and you'll capture slightly fewer leads, but close-to-sale 33% higher. The key, according to Shift Digital, is providing customers the information they prioritize.

Lead capture works best when the CTA for customers matches the experience. If "Calculate Payments" opens a form instead of a calculator, a dealer can lose the shopper's trust. Clear, purpose-driven CTAs that deliver value before asking for contact information drive stronger engagement and conversions.

What's the Right Road for 2026?
In an environment where affordability concerns remain, and shoppers are more cautious than ever, the digital experience on a dealer's website is critical.  Dealers who sequence their calls to action via Lead Gates to enhance customer experience deliver value before asking for information.

This focus builds trust and converts at higher rates. In 2026, Shift Digital indicates the dealers who win will be those who meet customer expectations with clarity, simplicity and a frictionless online shopping journey.

To view a copy of Shift Digital's analysis of 2025 and Lead Gates, please visit the following link: https://www.shiftdigital.com/2025-Trends-Lead-Gate-Strategy.

About Shift Digital:  Shift Digital is a leader in marketing optimization and data activation. Our comprehensive data management technologies and support services help national brands and local retailers transform their digital marketing and sales initiatives. Shift Digital's technology helps customers eliminate blind spots in digital marketing programs by providing actionable insights. Backed by extensive research and continuous improvement, Shift Digital's cutting-edge technology empowers businesses to gain a comprehensive view of their customers' data, unveiling new ways to supercharge digital marketing efforts.

SOURCE Shift Digital