Basketball Statistician Wayne Winston Predicts NCAA Men's Tournament by Applying Game Simulations. And the Champion is...

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Mar 16, 2010, 07:30 ET

Last year Winston picked the inner teams AND the Final Four using these methods

PRINCETON, N.J., March 16 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Using the well-known and highly respected Sagarin Ratings (found at http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/bkt0910.htm) sports statistician and Indiana University Professor Wayne Winston has "simulated" the NCAA 2010 Men's Basketball tournament 5000 times. For each team, the table below gives the chance of the team winning 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 games.

For example, we see Kansas has a 31.9% chance of winning the tournament (winning 6 games), a 44.6% chance of making the final game (winning 5 or 6 games) and a 60% Chance (winning 4, 5, or 6 games) of making the Final Four. See below the table or Chapter 43 of his new book MATHLETICS: How Gamblers, Managers, and Sports Enthusiasts Use Mathematics in Baseball, Basketball, and Football) for how he ran the simulation. The table makes it clear that Kansas has by far the best chance of winning the tourney. There is around a 38% chance that a non-1 seed wins the tourney.


Team	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Kansas	0.004	0.117	0.141	0.138	0.154	0.127	0.319
Duke	0.009	0.223	0.215	0.177	0.135	0.119	0.121
Syracuse	0.033	0.239	0.175	0.194	0.180	0.070	0.108
Kentucky	0.031	0.299	0.208	0.172	0.130	0.087	0.074
West Va.	0.044	0.304	0.192	0.202	0.114	0.079	0.067
Kan St.	0.044	0.371	0.198	0.176	0.130	0.037	0.043
Villanova	0.029	0.310	0.259	0.211	0.094	0.060	0.037
Baylor	0.110	0.287	0.286	0.170	0.079	0.042	0.026
Georgetown	0.102	0.346	0.238	0.211	0.052	0.031	0.020
Ohio St.	0.086	0.321	0.268	0.229	0.053	0.026	0.018
Purdue	0.267	0.297	0.261	0.083	0.050	0.027	0.015
Wisconsin	0.180	0.350	0.276	0.099	0.052	0.027	0.015
BYU	0.293	0.377	0.125	0.102	0.067	0.020	0.015
Temple	0.315	0.310	0.228	0.078	0.041	0.018	0.010
Maryland	0.142	0.335	0.397	0.059	0.041	0.016	0.010
Texas	0.339	0.410	0.118	0.066	0.038	0.021	0.009
Pitt	0.165	0.386	0.268	0.107	0.053	0.012	0.009
Texas A & M	0.389	0.299	0.194	0.063	0.033	0.013	0.008
Butler	0.443	0.239	0.203	0.065	0.033	0.009	0.008
New Mexico	0.174	0.386	0.269	0.107	0.040	0.017	0.007
Xavier	0.373	0.275	0.209	0.086	0.041	0.009	0.006
Marquette	0.421	0.262	0.195	0.076	0.027	0.014	0.005
Mich St.	0.187	0.412	0.320	0.047	0.020	0.008	0.005
Tennessee	0.406	0.317	0.140	0.103	0.021	0.009	0.005
Vandy	0.333	0.325	0.223	0.070	0.035	0.008	0.005
Missouri	0.481	0.332	0.093	0.059	0.020	0.010	0.004
Georgia Tech	0.486	0.308	0.123	0.065	0.011	0.003	0.003
Clemson	0.519	0.324	0.073	0.052	0.019	0.010	0.003
Fla. St.	0.449	0.393	0.081	0.047	0.023	0.005	0.002
Saint Mary's	0.469	0.349	0.108	0.052	0.016	0.005	0.002
Notre Dame	0.488	0.319	0.121	0.053	0.011	0.005	0.002
Cal	0.459	0.406	0.080	0.032	0.017	0.005	0.002
San Diego St.	0.594	0.250	0.094	0.050	0.008	0.002	0.002
Okla St.	0.514	0.302	0.111	0.058	0.011	0.003	0.001
Richmond	0.531	0.315	0.094	0.041	0.014	0.004	0.001
UTEP	0.557	0.212	0.165	0.041	0.017	0.005	0.001
Utah St.	0.611	0.239	0.111	0.025	0.010	0.003	0.001
N Iowa	0.469	0.462	0.038	0.019	0.007	0.004	0.001
UNLV	0.531	0.418	0.031	0.013	0.005	0.002	0.001
Gonzaga	0.551	0.339	0.059	0.034	0.013	0.003	0.001
Louisville	0.541	0.362	0.058	0.025	0.009	0.004	0.001
Washington	0.579	0.215	0.142	0.042	0.015	0.005	0.001
Minn	0.627	0.207	0.119	0.034	0.011	0.002	0.001
Florida	0.707	0.211	0.048	0.024	0.007	0.002	0.001
Old Dominion	0.512	0.303	0.112	0.051	0.016	0.005	0.001
Wake	0.661	0.264	0.046	0.019	0.007	0.002	0.000
Murray St.	0.667	0.223	0.089	0.015	0.004	0.001	0.000
Cornell	0.685	0.203	0.082	0.021	0.006	0.003	0.000
Siena	0.733	0.165	0.081	0.015	0.005	0.002	0.000
New Mex St.	0.813	0.146	0.039	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000
Wofford	0.820	0.136	0.040	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000
Montana	0.826	0.136	0.034	0.004	0.000	0.000	0.000
Oakland	0.835	0.131	0.029	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
Houston	0.858	0.107	0.033	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000
Sam Houston	0.890	0.090	0.017	0.003	0.000	0.000	0.000
Ohio	0.898	0.087	0.012	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
UC Santa Barbara	0.914	0.070	0.014	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
Morgan St.	0.956	0.040	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
North Tex	0.956	0.040	0.004	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Vermont	0.967	0.029	0.004	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
East Tenn. St.	0.969	0.028	0.003	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Robert Morris	0.971	0.027	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Play In Game	0.991	0.009	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Lehigh	0.996	0.003	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

He assumed that the outcome of each game follows a normal random variable with mean margin = Sagarin rating of higher rated team - Sagarin rating of lower rated team and standard deviation 10 points. Then Wayne used the simulation add-in @RISK to play out the tournament the 5000 times.

If you want to see the chance a team wins at least a certain number of games look below. So 6 column is chance team wins tourney, 5 column is chance team makes it to final game, 4 column is chance team makes it to Final Four, 3 Column is chance team makes it to Regional Final or beyond, 2 Column is chance team makes it to Sweet Sixteen or beyond, and 1 column is chance team wins their opening game.


Team	1	2	3	4	5	6
Kansas	0.996	0.879	0.738	0.600	0.446	0.319
Duke	0.991	0.767	0.552	0.375	0.240	0.121
Syracuse	0.967	0.728	0.552	0.358	0.178	0.108
Kentucky	0.969	0.671	0.463	0.291	0.161	0.074
West Va.	0.956	0.653	0.461	0.259	0.146	0.067
Kan St.	0.956	0.585	0.387	0.211	0.081	0.043
Villanova	0.971	0.662	0.402	0.191	0.097	0.037
Baylor	0.890	0.603	0.317	0.147	0.068	0.026
Georgetown	0.898	0.552	0.314	0.103	0.051	0.020
Ohio St.	0.914	0.594	0.325	0.096	0.043	0.018
Purdue	0.733	0.436	0.176	0.092	0.042	0.015
Wisconsin	0.820	0.470	0.194	0.094	0.042	0.015
BYU	0.707	0.329	0.204	0.102	0.035	0.015
Temple	0.685	0.374	0.147	0.069	0.028	0.010
Maryland	0.858	0.523	0.126	0.067	0.026	0.010
Texas	0.661	0.251	0.134	0.068	0.030	0.009
Pitt	0.835	0.448	0.180	0.073	0.021	0.009
Texas A & M	0.611	0.312	0.118	0.054	0.021	0.008
Butler	0.557	0.318	0.115	0.050	0.017	0.008
New Mexico	0.826	0.440	0.171	0.064	0.024	0.007
Xavier	0.627	0.352	0.143	0.057	0.016	0.006
Marquette	0.579	0.318	0.123	0.047	0.019	0.005
Mich St.	0.813	0.401	0.080	0.033	0.013	0.005
Tennessee	0.594	0.277	0.137	0.035	0.013	0.005
Vandy	0.667	0.342	0.118	0.048	0.013	0.005
Missouri	0.519	0.187	0.094	0.034	0.014	0.004
Georgia Tech	0.514	0.206	0.083	0.018	0.007	0.003
Clemson	0.481	0.157	0.084	0.033	0.013	0.003
Fla. St.	0.551	0.158	0.077	0.030	0.007	0.002
Saint Mary's	0.531	0.183	0.075	0.023	0.007	0.002
Notre Dame	0.512	0.192	0.071	0.019	0.007	0.002
San Diego St.	0.406	0.156	0.063	0.012	0.004	0.002
Cal	0.541	0.135	0.055	0.024	0.007	0.002
Okla St.	0.486	0.185	0.073	0.015	0.004	0.001
UTEP	0.443	0.230	0.065	0.024	0.007	0.001
Utah St.	0.389	0.151	0.039	0.015	0.004	0.001
Richmond	0.469	0.154	0.060	0.019	0.005	0.001
UNLV	0.469	0.051	0.021	0.007	0.003	0.001
N Iowa	0.531	0.069	0.031	0.012	0.005	0.001
Gonzaga	0.449	0.110	0.051	0.017	0.004	0.001
Minn	0.373	0.166	0.047	0.014	0.003	0.001
Florida	0.293	0.082	0.034	0.010	0.003	0.001
Washington	0.421	0.205	0.063	0.021	0.006	0.001
Louisville	0.459	0.097	0.039	0.014	0.005	0.001
Old Dominion	0.488	0.185	0.073	0.021	0.006	0.001
Murray St.	0.333	0.110	0.020	0.006	0.001	0.000
Wake	0.339	0.075	0.029	0.010	0.003	0.000
Cornell	0.315	0.112	0.030	0.009	0.003	0.000
Lehigh	0.004	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
New Mex St.	0.187	0.041	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.000
Houston	0.142	0.035	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.000
Ohio	0.102	0.015	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
UC Santa Barbara	0.086	0.016	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000
Vermont	0.033	0.004	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Oakland	0.165	0.034	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
North Tex	0.044	0.004	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
East Tenn. St.	0.031	0.003	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Wofford	0.180	0.044	0.004	0.001	0.000	0.000
Montana	0.174	0.037	0.004	0.000	0.000	0.000
Morgan St.	0.044	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000
Winthrop	0.009	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Siena	0.267	0.102	0.021	0.006	0.002	0.000
Robert Morris	0.029	0.002	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Sam Houston	0.110	0.020	0.003	0.000	0.000	0.000

Last year Wayne's simulations picked the inner and Final Four teams. He takes into account the ability of the teams based on their entire season performance and build in the matchups and play out all 63 games 5000 times. It takes a few hours to perform such a remarkable program. He believes that the tables are the best way to show the chance each team will make it to each possible level of the tournament.

And who does Wayne pick to win the NCAA championship? "My personal opinion is that Kansas has a better chance to win than bookies think. Odds are 301 on Kansas but I think they have around a 30% chance to win, which would indicate odds on them should be only 2-1 or so."

Wayne is available for comment during the entire NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament as well as during the entire sporting year. Coming soon Wayne will be making his Major League Baseball 2010 and the NHL 2010 playoffs predictions. If you would like to receive a review copy of his latest book Mathletics, please contact Andrew DeSio at (609) 258-5165 or [email protected]. Please visit Wayne's popular blog on sports and statistics at www.waynewinston.com.

SOURCE Princeton University Press