HOUSTON, April 24, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The BBVA Research team has published its U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse for April 2020, offering insight into the economic outlook as well as macro fundamentals.
The report, authored by BBVA senior economist Boyd Nash-Stacey, estimates that the U.S. gross domestic product will drop by 4.7 percent in the first quarter and by 32.3 percent in the second quarter of 2020, returning to pre-crisis levels by second quarter 2022.
The Fed is expected to keep rates at the zero lower bound, and the balance sheet is expected to grow to $7.5 billion. In addition, the report indicates that long-term yields will remain close to current levels by year-end, and oil prices are likely to remain low throughout 2020
In terms of economic activity, the report notes historic pressure building on the supply side, with the high-tech sector providing the only bright spot. The positive momentum in the housing sector has been wiped out due to lockdowns and a tepid demand-side outlook.
Labor force participation has plummeted with layoffs and furloughs, but inflows could increase if the social safety net encourages attachment. Relative to last year, the worst drop in participation rates are among the 20- to 24-year-olds, down 1.88 percentage points year over year.
The Pulse provides a detailed analysis of the economic impact of COVID-19 and the fiscal response, as well as the labor market, inflation and monetary policy.
Led by Nathaniel Karp, BBVA Compass' research team analyzes the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. For its analyses, the economists create models and forecasts for growth, inflation, monetary policy and industries. The Economic Research team also follows a variety of issues that affect the Sunbelt states where BBVA Compass operates. Follow their work on Twitter @BBVAResearch and @BBVACompassNews.
Read the full report here.
See the complete library of BBVA Research publications here.
For more financial information about BBVA in the U.S., visit bbvausa.investorroom.com.
BBVA (NYSE: BBVA) is a customer-centric global financial services group founded in 1857. The Group has a strong leadership position in the Spanish market, is the largest financial institution in Mexico, it has leading franchises in South America and the Sunbelt Region of the United States. It is also the leading shareholder in Turkey's Garanti BBVA. Its purpose is to bring the age of opportunities to everyone, based on our customers' real needs: provide the best solutions, helping them make the best financial decisions, through an easy and convenient experience. The institution rests in solid values: Customer comes first, we think big and we are one team. Its responsible banking model aspires to achieve a more inclusive and sustainable society.
In the U.S., BBVA is a Sunbelt-based financial institution that operates 641 branches, including 330 in Texas, 89 in Alabama, 63 in Arizona, 61 in California, 44 in Florida, 37 in Colorado and 17 in New Mexico. The bank ranks among the top 25 largest U.S. commercial banks based on deposit market share and ranks among the largest banks in Alabama (2nd), Texas (4th) and Arizona (6th). In the U.S., BBVA has been recognized as one of the leading small business lenders by the Small Business Administration (SBA) and ranked 8th nationally in terms of dollar volume of SBA loans originated in fiscal year 2018.
SOURCE BBVA USA