Branded Prescription Pharmaceutical Sales Outlook to 2016

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Branded Prescription Pharmaceutical Sales Outlook to 2016

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In 2011, the Branded PharmaVitae Universe achieved sales of $558bn having experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3% between 2003 and 2010, and a net sales growth of $253bn. However, during 2011–16 sales are forecast to grow by a CAGR of only 1.0%, with no growth forecast in 2012, and branded prescription sales rising by just $29bn by 2016. Analyzes the forecast sales of the Branded PharmaVitae Universe according to molecule type Analyzes the forecast sales of the Branded PharmaVitae Universe according to therapy area Analyzes the forecast sales of the Branded PharmaVitae Universe according to geographical market Analyzes the forecast sales of the Branded PharmaVitae Universe according to formulation type By 2016 the small molecule market will contract by $5bn compared to 2011 sales as a direct consequence of the patent cliff and resultant generic erosion of branded sales. In preparation for this, the pharmaceutical industry has for some years been shifting its strategy to focus increasingly on high-growth markets such as biologics. With US sales forecast to contract, pharmaceutical companies have turned to cost cutting and restructuring their US operations, while expanding in the high growth emerging markets. In fact, branded sales in the rest of world markets are forecast to represent 30.0% of sales in the Branded PharmaVitae Universe in 2016. The pharmaceutical industry is shifting its R&D focus toward developing novel, high value, and often biologic therapies for the treatment of more niche indications. Reflecting this, infectious diseases and oncology are forecast to experience strong growth with additional sales of $10bn and $26bn by 2016, respectively. Evaluate the evolving prescription pharmaceutical landscape and how this is set to impact Pharma out to 2016 Quantify the size and growth of the pharmaceutical market Assess drivers and resistors of the prescription pharmaceutical market

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYStrategic scoping and focusKey findingsRelated reportsFORECAST PRESCRIPTION PHARMACEUTICAL SALES ANALYSISThe Branded PharmaVitae Universe will experience sales growth of only 1.0% per year out to 2016Newly launched and core drugs will collectively offset the sales loss from expiry productsThe pharmaceutical industry continues to expand in the biologic sector Injectable drugs are set to drive market growth The industry will derive the majority of its sales from externally sourced products by 2016The rest of world markets alone will offset the sales decline in the USSecondary care therapy areas are becoming a priority for pharmaSales of blockbuster drugs are expected to contract during 2011–16BIBLIOGRAPHYPublications and online articles Datamonitor reports and productsAPPENDIXThe Branded PharmaVitae Universe

TABLES

Table: Forecast prescription pharma sales ($bn) and year-on-year growth rate (%) for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, 2011–16

Table: Combined global sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe for launch, core, expiring, and generic prescription products ($bn), 2011–16

Table: Combined global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by molecule type ($bn), 2011–16

Table: Combined global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by product delivery mechanism ($bn), 2011–16

Table: Combined global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by product source ($bn), 2011–16

Table: Combined prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by geography ($bn), 2011–16

Table: Combined global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by therapy area ($bn), 2011–16

Table: Global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by product value ($bn), 2011–16

Table: Forecast sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe ($m), 2011–16

FIGURES

Figure: Drivers and resistors for global sales growth of prescription products from the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, 2011–16Figure: Global prescription pharma sales ($bn) and year-on-year growth rate (%), 2003–16Figure: Combined global sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe for launch, core, expiring, and generic prescription products ($bn), 2003–16Figure: Difference in global combined sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe for launch, core, expiring, and generic prescription products ($bn), 2011–16Figure: Sales growth for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by launch/core/expiry/generic portfolio, 2011–16Figure: Combined global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by molecule type ($bn), 2003–16Figure: Difference in combined global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by molecule type ($bn), 2011–16Figure: Sales growth for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by molecule type, 2011–16Figure: Combined global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by product delivery mechanism ($bn), 2003–16Figure: Difference in combined global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by product delivery mechanism ($bn), 2011–16Figure: Sales growth for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by delivery mechanism, 2011–16Figure: Combined global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by product source ($bn), 2003–16Figure: Difference in combined global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by product source ($bn), 2011–16Figure: Sales growth for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by product source, 2011–16Figure: Combined prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by geography ($bn), 2003–16Figure: Difference in combined prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by geography ($bn), 2011–16Figure: Sales growth for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by geography, 2011–16Figure: Combined global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by therapy area ($bn), 2003–16Figure: Difference in combined global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by therapy area ($bn), 2011–16Figure: Sales growth for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by therapy area, 2011–16Figure: Global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by product value ($bn), 2003–16Figure: Difference in combined global prescription sales for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by product value ($bn), 2011 and 2016Figure: Sales growth for the Branded PharmaVitae Universe, by product value, 2011–16

Companies mentioned

GlaxoSmithKline Plc, Hutchison 3G UK Limited, Johnson & Johnson, Merck KGaA, Schindler Holding Ltd., Telstra Corporation Limited

To order this report:Pharmaceutical Industry: Branded Prescription Pharmaceutical Sales Outlook to 2016

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