Carwin Forecasts Housing Recovery Timeline for Las Vegas and Phoenix Metropolitan Areas

DALLAS, Feb. 21, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Carwin Advisors recently published two papers that use a predictive model to forecast the housing recovery timeline for Las Vegas and Phoenix metropolitan areas. Carwin's model takes into account several variables to predict when the distressed housing stock, including shadow inventory, will be completely absorbed by the market. As the supply of distressed housing diminishes, there will be upward pressure on home prices, which will, in turn, lead to an increase in new home construction.

In these papers Carwin has utilized a significantly aggressive approach to determine the total stock of distressed, shadow inventory. Carwin assumes that every single mortgage financed between 2002 and 2006 is currently underwater or has negative equity. Carwin further assumes that 100% of all new home sales and 75% of all resales were credit sales (a mortgage was taken instead of paying cash). Carwin's model then employs several critical variables to determine the absorption of this inventory.

Based on an exhaustive analysis, Carwin estimates that the Las Vegas housing market will revert to a more normal environment with levels of new and existing housing sales similar to that of early 2000's by late 2016 once the distressed stock has been absorbed. Phoenix, on the other hand, is heading toward a healthy recovery this year as distressed stock gets absorbed at a significantly higher pace. Carwin estimates that the Phoenix metropolitan area will absorb the distressed housing stock, including the shadow / pending supply, by mid-2013.

The papers are detailed, comprehensive and some of the few that provide simple, scientific analysis of the housing market for these two metro regions. The papers can be downloaded here - Las Vegas and Phoenix.

About Carwin Advisors

Carwin Advisors, a Winchester Carlisle Company, is a national full-service real estate advisory firm specializing in solving complex problems and working with multiple stakeholders in the restructuring, turnaround, management, financing, development, and disposition of residential, commercial, and mixed-use real estate assets, portfolios, and companies. Carwin also provides capital sourcing, due diligence and business intelligence services. For more information please visit carwinadvisors.com.

SOURCE Carwin Advisors