LONDON, January 27 /PRNewswire/ --
- Roskill Information Services
- Molybdenum: Market outlook to 2014 (10th Edition, 2010)
Cutbacks by major producers, combined with stockpiling in China, resulted in a tightening of supply, causing prices to spike in mid 2009. Between July 2009 and August 2009, prices for both molybdic oxide and ferromolybdenum almost doubled, only to drop by 50% in the next two months.
From November 2009, in line with the general trend in commodity prices, molybdenum prices have increased, reaching US$15/lbMo by January 2010, an increase of almost 50%. Nevertheless, with demand expected to rebound in 2010, prices could consolidate at current levels.
China to continue driving molybdenum demand
In 2009, molybdenum consumption is estimated to have declined by as much as 9%, as end-users curtailed their requirements. Although consumption has declined on a global level, emerging markets such as China have seen demand continue to increase in 2009. Chinese consumption is estimated to have risen by around 5% in 2009.
Chinese consumption will continue to outstrip growth in the rest of the world, with an annual average rate of 9%py for the next five years, compared to accumulated growth of 2%py in the developed markets of Europe, the USA and Japan.
Steel to remain dominant end-use for molybdenum
Molybdenum is consumed mainly as oxide or ferromolybdenum in stainless and alloy steels, products for which demand has fallen significantly in the global downturn. Production of stainless steel, which accounts for around 25% of all molybdenum consumption, has declined sharply over the last two years. In 2008, output fell by 7% year-on-year, while the first three quarters of 2009 have seen production of crude stainless steel decline by around 15%, year-on-year.
The fall in production of stainless steel, however, has only taken place in developed economies. Emerging markets such as China and India have seen domestic output continue to rise. The first three quarters of 2009 saw Chinese production up by almost 20% year-on-year, while for the whole year China is forecast to produce 8-9Mt. However, 2010 is expected to see an increase in global demand and production, as world GDP recovers. World production of crude stainless steel is forecast to increase by around 8% in 2010.
After 2010 demand growth is expected to average 4%py, as the various end-uses for molybdenum consume ever larger volumes.
The drive to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power stations will require plants running at higher temperatures, resulting in greater demand for high end molybdenum-bearing steels. The energy market will play an important role in the future, as the growth in nuclear power stations, along with drilling for oil and gas in harsher environments, drives demand for molybdenum containing steels.
Molybdenum shortages could occur
In response to a large withdrawal of demand from the market, molybdenum producers responded with savage cuts. In 2009, global mined molybdenum output is estimated to have declined by 12%, following annual average growth of 5% for the period 2000 to 2008. Surpluses in 2008 and 2009 have been absorbed by stockpiling, mainly in China. In the longer term, molybdenum demand is expected to recover and the market may move into deficit by 2014.
With the decline in prices in late 2008, many new mining projects were slowed or suspended. As there are some forty molybdenum mine projects with combined capacity of about 170ktpy at some level of feasibility assessment, longer term supply appears to be assured.
The only new roasting plant outside China that is likely to be constructed in the short to medium term is that by Molymet at Mejillones in Chile. This will raise world capacity to more than 270ktpy, which is more than sufficient on a global basis, but there still may be localised shortages of roasting capacity.
What will be the likely impact of the LME molybdenum contract?
In February 2010, the London Metal Exchange (LME) will commence futures trading of molybdenum as part of its move to list minor metals on its exchange. The plan to turn molybdenum into an exchange traded commodity has come with mixed reviews. Many producers and consumers have voiced concerns that prices will become more volatile as a result, while others have welcomed the news.
So far Molymet is the only company to register its brands of molybdic oxide, although Jinduicheng Molybdenum, China Molybdenum, and Kwangyang Ferroalloy have also applied for registration.
Regardless of the platform used, molybdenum prices are expected to remain volatile, although following an upward trend. In 2010, prices for oxide are forecast to average US$17/lbMo, rising to above US$20/lbMo in 2011, as strong demand allows producers to increase prices. Further forward, a deficit could appear in the market by 2014, taking prices to US$40/lbMo.
Table of Contents 1 Summary 1.1 Properties, occurrence and processing 1.2 World supply 1.3 Consumption 1.4 International trade 1.5 Prices 2 Properties, occurrence and reserves of molybdenum 2.1 Properties 2.2 Occurrence and mineralogy 2.3 Reserves and resources 3 Molybdenum mining and production processes 3.1 Mining, concentrating and processing 3.1.1 Technical grade molybdenum oxide (TMO - roasted concentrates) 3.1.2 Ferromolybdenum (FeMo) 3.1.3 Other commercial forms of molybdenum 3.2 Recycling of molybdenum 4 World molybdenum production data 4.1 Mine production 4.1.1 Mine production by country 4.1.2 Molybdenum mine production by company 4.2 Ferromolybdenum production 4.3 Molybdenum metal and alloys 4.4 Recycling and regeneration 5 Current and forecast molybdenum production capacity 5.1 Current molybdenum production capacity 5.1.1 Molybdenum mine capacity 5.1.2 Roasted concentrate capacity 5.1.3 Ferromolybdenum production capacity 5.2 New projects and future supply of molybdenum 6 Molybdenum production costs 6.1 Projected costs for 2009 7 Notes on molybdenum producing countries 7.1 Argentina 7.1.1 Minera Alumbrera 7.1.2 Yamana Gold - Aqua Rica Project 7.1.3 Xstrata Copper 7.1.4 Tenke Mining 7.1.5 Other projects 7.2 Armenia 7.2.1 Zangezur Copper-Molybdenum Company (Zangezur) 7.2.2 Agarak Copper-Molybdenum Company (Agarak) 7.2.3 Yerevan Pure Iron Plant (YPIP) 7.2.4 Armenian Molybdenum Production (AMP) 7.2.5 Armenian Copper Program (ACP) - Teghout 7.3 Australia 7.3.1 Auzex Resources 7.3.2 Havilah Resources - Kalkaroo 7.3.3 Moly Mines - Spinifex Ridge 7.3.4 Thor Mining - Molyhil 7.3.5 Queensland Ores Ltd - Wolfram Camp 7.3.6 Other molybdenum exploration projects 7.4 Austria 7.4.1 Treibacher Industrie AG 7.4.2 Plansee SE 7.4.3 SEKOM Handelsges 7.5 Belgium 7.5.1 NV Sadaci SA 7.5.2 Other molybdenum processing companies 7.6 Brazil 7.7 Bulgaria 7.8 Canada 7.8.1 Mine production of molybdenum in Canada 22.214.171.124 Thompson Creek Metals Co - Endako 126.96.36.199 Teck Resources - Highland Valley Copper 188.8.131.52 Roca Mines Inc - Max 184.108.40.206 Imperial Metals Corp - Huckleberry 220.127.116.11 Taseko Mines Ltd. 7.8.2 New molybdenum projects in Canada 18.104.22.168 Adanac Molybdenum - Ruby Creek 22.214.171.124 Avanti Mining - Kitsault 7.9 Chile 7.9.1 Mine production of molybdenum in Chile 126.96.36.199 Corporacion National del Cobre de Chile (Codelco) 188.8.131.52 Antofagasta plc 184.108.40.206 Anglo American Sur 220.127.116.11 Cia Minera Dona Ines de Collahuasi 18.104.22.168 Amerigo Resources 7.9.2 New molybdenum mining projects 22.214.171.124 Escondida 126.96.36.199 Los Andes Copper - Vizcachitas 188.8.131.52 Teck Resources - Relincho 184.108.40.206 Quadra Mining - Sierra Gorda 220.127.116.11 Pan Pacific Copper 7.9.3 Processing of molybdenum in Chile 18.104.22.168 Molibdenos y Metales SA (Molymet) 22.214.171.124 Xstrata - Altonorte 7.1 China 7.10.1 Molybdenum resources in China 7.10.2 Mine production of molybdenum 126.96.36.199 Jinduicheng Molybdenum Group Co Ltd 188.8.131.52 China Molybdenum 184.108.40.206 The molybdenum industry of the Huludao region 220.127.116.11 Qingtian Jianshi Molybdenum Chemical Co 18.104.22.168 Sino-Steel Chifeng Jinxin Mining 22.214.171.124 Sing Horn Enterprise Co 126.96.36.199 Chaoyang Jinda Molybdenum 188.8.131.52 Dalian Haiyi Chemistry Co 184.108.40.206 Jilin Daheishan Molybdenum Industry 220.127.116.11 Chengdu Molyplus Technologies 18.104.22.168 Harbin Songjiang Copper Group 22.214.171.124 Chifeng Haozhou Mining 7.10.3 New molybdenum mining projects in China 7.10.4 Molybdenum processing in China 7.11 Ecuador 7.12 France 7.13 Germany 7.14 Greenland 7.14.1 Quadra Mining - Malmbjerg 7.15 Honduras 7.16 India 7.17 Indonesia 7.18 Iran 7.18.1 National Iranian Copper Industries Co (Nicico) 7.18.2 Zanjan Bronz Ltd 7.19 Israel 7.2 Japan 7.21 Kazakhstan 7.21.1 Molyken - Shorskoye 7.21.2 Other molybdenum occurrences in Kazakhstan 7.22 South Korea 7.22.1 Oriental Minerals - Sangdong 7.23 Laos 7.24 Mexico 7.24.1 Minera Mexico 7.24.2 Molymex SA de CV 7.24.3 Other molybdenum occurrences in Mexico 7.25 Mongolia 7.25.1 Erdenet Corp 7.25.2 Shim Technology 7.25.3 Erdene Resource Development 7.25.4 Other projects 7.26 Morocco 7.27 Namibia 7.28 Netherlands 7.28.1 Climax Molybdenum BV 7.29 Norway 7.3 Pakistan 7.31 Panama 7.31.1 Inmet - Minera Petaquilla 7.31.2 Cerro Colorado 7.32 Papua New Guinea (PNG) 7.32.1 CopperMoly - Simuku 7.32.2 Marengo Mining - Yandera 7.32.3 Harmony Gold - Golpu 7.33 Peru 7.33.1 Mine production of molybdenum in Peru 126.96.36.199 Southern Peru Copper Corporation (SPCC) 188.8.131.52 Cia Minera Antamina SA 184.108.40.206 Freeport McMoRan - Cerro Verde 7.33.2 New molybdenum projects in Peru 220.127.116.11 Chinalco - Toromocho 18.104.22.168 Anglo American - Quellaveco and Michiquillay 22.214.171.124 Inca Pacific Resources - Magistral 126.96.36.199 Monterrico Metals - Rio Blanco 188.8.131.52 Norsemont Mining - Constancia 184.108.40.206 Northern Peru Copper Corp - Galeno 220.127.116.11 Rio Tinto - La Granja 18.104.22.168 Xstrata Copper 7.34 Philippines 7.34.1 Metals Exploration - Runruno 7.34.2 Sagittarius Mines - Tampakan 7.35 Poland 7.35.1 Strzelecki Metals - Myszkow 7.36 Russia 7.36.1 Resources 7.36.2 Mine production 22.214.171.124 Strikeforce Mining and Resources (SMR) 126.96.36.199 JSC Tyrnyauz GOK (TGOK) 7.36.3 Other molybdenum occurrences in Russia 7.36.4 Molybdenum processing in Russia 7.37 Sierra Leone 7.38 Slovakia 7.39 South Africa 7.4 Spain 7.41 Sweden 7.42 Turkey 7.42.1 Anatolia Minerals 7.42.2 Stratex International 7.43 UK 7.43.1 Climax Molybdenum UK Ltd. 7.43.2 FMP Metallurgical UK 7.43.3 Other molybdenum processors and suppliers in the UK 7.44 USA 7.44.1 Mine production of molybdenum in the USA 188.8.131.52 Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold 184.108.40.206 Rio Tinto - Kennecott Utah Copper 220.127.116.11 Thompson Creek Metals Company USA 18.104.22.168 Montana Resources Inc 22.214.171.124 Molycorp Inc. 126.96.36.199 Mercator Minerals Ltd - Mineral Park 188.8.131.52 Golden Phoenix Minerals Inc - Ashdown Project 184.108.40.206 Quadra Mining 7.44.2 New molybdenum projects in the USA 220.127.116.11 Eureka Moly - Mount Hope Project 18.104.22.168 Northern Dynasty Minerals/Anglo American - Pebble Project 22.214.171.124 Galway Resources 126.96.36.199 Bolero Resources - Bald Butte Project 188.8.131.52 Other molybdenum occurrences in the USA 7.44.3 Other molybdenum processors and fabricators in the USA 7.45 Uzbekistan 7.45.1 Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Combine (Almalyk) 7.45.2 Uzbek Refractory and High Temperature Metals Plant (UzKTZhM) 7.45.3 Uzmetal Technology 7.46 Vietnam 8 Analysis of molybdenum international trade data 8.1 Raw molybdenum concentrates 8.2 Roasted molybdenum concentrates 8.3 Molybdenum oxides and hydroxides 8.4 International trade in ferromolybdenum 8.5 International trade in articles and powder of molybdenum metal 8.6 Molybdenum waste and scrap 9 World consumption of molybdenum 9.1 Apparent consumption of molybdenum 9.2 Consumption of molybdenum by use 9.2.1 Consumption of molybdenum by industry 9.2.2 Consumption of molybdenum by use in selected countries 9.3 Consumption of molybdenum by form 10 Uses of molybdenum 10.1 Use of molybdenum in steels 10.1.1 Crude steel production 10.1.2 Stainless steels 10.1.2.1 Types and uses of molybdenum-containing stainless steel 10.1.3 Production of stainless steel 10.1.3.1 Stainless steel production capacity 10.1.3.2 Consumption of stainless steel 10.1.4 Full alloy steels 10.1.4.1 Types and uses of molybdenum-containing full alloy steels 10.1.5 Tool and high speed steels 10.1.5.1 Types and use of molybdenum-containing tool and high speed steels 10.1.5.2 Production and consumption of tool and high speed steels 10.1.6 High-strength low alloy steels 10.1.6.1 Line pipe steel 10.1.6.2 Automobiles 10.1.6.3 Construction 10.1.6.4 Gas containers and pressure vessels 10.1.7 Carbon steels 10.2 Catalysts 10.2.1 Use and types of molybdenum-bearing catalysts 10.2.2 Producers of molybdenum catalysts 10.2.2.1 Advanced Refining Technologies (ART) 10.2.2.2 Albemarle Catalysts & Nippon Ketjen 10.2.2.3 Axens Catalysts and Absorbants 10.2.2.4 Criterion Catalysts & Technologies 10.2.2.5 Haldor Tops0e A/S 10.2.2.6 Sud-Chemie Group 10.2.2.7 Other catalyst companies 10.2.3 Catalyst regeneration and recycling 10.2.3.1 Catalyst regeneration 10.2.3.2 Catalyst recycling 10.3 Molybdenum metal and molybdenum-based alloys 10.3.1 Types of molybdenum-base alloys 10.3.2 Applications of molybdenum metal and alloys 10.3.2.1 LCD panels and solar cells 10.3.2.2 Lighting industry 10.3.2.3 Electronics industry 10.3.2.4 Materials processing and thermal spray coating 10.3.2.5 High temperatures furnaces and equipment 10.3.2.6 Glass manufacturing 10.3.2.7 Aerospace and defence 10.3.2.8 Nuclear industry 10.3.3 Producers and fabricators of molybdenum metals and alloys 10.3.3.1 ALMT Corp. (Allied Materials) 10.3.3.2 Elmet Technologies 10.3.3.3 General Electric Consumer Products (GECP) 10.3.3.4 Global Tungsten & Powders 10.3.3.5 H.C. Starck 10.3.3.6 Jing Dui Cheng Molybdenum Group (JDC) 10.3.3.7 Metallisation 10.3.3.8 Philips Advanced Metal Solutions 10.3.3.9 Plansee SE 10.3.3.10 Polema JSC 10.3.3.11 Toho Kinzoku Co Ltd 10.3.3.12 Other companies 10.4 High-performance alloys (superalloys) 10.4.1 Types and use of molybdenum-bearing HPA 10.4.1.1 Nickel-based HPA 10.4.1.2 Cobalt-based HPA 10.4.1.3 Iron-nickel-based HPA 10.4.2 Markets for HPA/superalloys 10.4.2.1 Aerospace applications 10.4.2.2 Non-aerospace applications 10.5 Titanium-based alloys 10.6 Use of molybdenum in cast iron 10.6.1 Production and consumption of cast iron 10.7 Use of molybdenum in greases and lubricants 10.7.1 Grease production and producers 10.8 Use of molybdenum in pigments and corrosion inhibitors 10.8.1 Pigments/corrosion inhibitors 10.8.2 Corrosion inhibitors 10.9 Minor uses of molybdenum chemicals 11 Outlook for molybdenum consumption by product to 2014 11.1 Stainless steel 11.2 Full alloy steels 11.3 Tool and high speed steels 11.4 HSLA steel 11.5 Carbon steel 11.6 Catalysts 11.7 Molybdenum metal and molybdenum alloy products 11.8 High performance/superalloys 11.9 Cast iron 11.1 Grease and lubricants 12 Supply and demand of molybdenum 13 Molybdenum prices 13.1 Comparison of contract and free market prices, 2007 to 2009 13.2 Historic trends in free market prices 13.3 Concentrate prices 13.4 Comparison of European and US prices 13.5 Outlook for molybdenum prices
Molybdenum: Market outlook to 2014 (10th Edition, 2010) is available at GBP3500 / US $7000 / 5600 Euros from Roskill Information Services Ltd, 27a Leopold Road, London SW19 7BB, England.
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