China's personal luxury market contracts 3%-5% in 2025 but shows signs of recovery

SHANGHAI, Jan. 29, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- The mainland China personal luxury goods market contracted by 3%–5% in 2025, a significant moderation compared with the sharp decline seen in 2024, according to Bain & Company's China Personal Luxury Report. While consumer confidence remained cautious for much of the year, the market showed early signs of recovery in the third quarter of the year, supported by favorable base effects – when comparing H2 2025 with the same period in 2024 – alongside a more robust stock market and a gradual improvement in sentiment.

The report finds that 2025 marked a year of recalibration for China's luxury market, as consumers became more selective and prioritized value driven luxury items that balance quality, exclusivity and practicality. Experience-based consumption, including travel and wellness, continued to be favored, reflecting an ongoing preference for emotional and sensory experiences over material goods.

"After the turbulence of 2024, the market in 2025 began to stabilize, although consumer confidence remained fragile," said Bruno Lannes, senior partner at Bain & Company. "What we are seeing is not a broad-based rebound, but the start of a recalibration phase, with early signs of recovery emerging in the second half of the year. This recalibration is also segment specific, with the Very Important Clients continuing to represent a large share of the market, while younger aspiring consumers have delayed entry into the luxury category."

Category performance remains uneven
Luxury market performance varied significantly by category. Beauty emerged as the strongest performer, rebounding to 4%–7% growth, driven by steady demand for ultra-premium skincare and fragrances as consumers continued to seek emotional and sensory experiences even amid economic uncertainty. Other categories remained under pressure.

Fashion declined by 5%–8%, outperforming leather goods which declined 8%–11% – reflecting past and ongoing price increases and limited innovation, which made it difficult for consumers to justify purchases. Watches remained under severe pressure, with an estimated decline of 14%–17%, as consumers became more rational in their purchases and increasingly turned to other investment assets, secondhand alternatives and sporty or smart-device options. Jewelry showed improvement compared with 2024, with its decline narrowing to 0%–5%, supported by value-preservation considerations and rising gold prices.

"In a more selective market, category dynamics and brand fundamentals are becoming increasingly decisive," said Priscilla Dell'Orto, partner at Bain & Company. "Brands that maintain strong desirability and deliver clear value through innovation and targeted pricing strategies are proving more resilient."

Overseas spending declines as consumption repatriates
In contrast to 2023 and 2024, the share of overseas luxury spending declined sharply in 2025. Bain estimates that 65% of Chinese luxury consumption occurred within mainland China, while 35% took place outside, reflecting a renewed degree of consumption repatriation.

This shift was driven in part by low currency and narrowed price gaps between mainland China and key luxury markets, largely resulting from exchange-rate movements, which reduced the incentive for overseas shopping. Domestic tourism growth and ongoing shopping mall promotions further supported mainland consumption, despite the continued recovery of outbound travel.

Daigou activity restrained as secondhand market expands
Daigou activity remained elevated in 2025 but showed signs of structural restraint, reflecting brands' increased efforts to regulate gray-market sales, protect brand equity and maintain pricing integrity in mainland China. Sales among the top 45 brands tracked on daigou platforms by Re-Hub rose by 3% in 2025, compared with 5% in 2024, as more brands tightened control over overseas supply chains and unofficial channels.

At the same time, China's secondhand luxury market continued to expand, growing by 15%–20% in 2025, while remaining underpenetrated at less than 10% of the primary luxury market. Growth was supported by an increased supply of pre-owned goods, rising consumer acceptance – particularly among younger and more price-sensitive buyers – and the widespread adoption of livestreaming as a trusted channel for product verification and engagement.

"The secondhand market is becoming a more established and complementary pillar of China's luxury ecosystem," said Elle Yang, partner at Bain & Company. "Its continued growth reflects changing consumer mindsets as well as the increasing maturity of the overall market."

Local brands gain traction in a more selective competitive landscape
The report also highlights the continued rise of local Chinese luxury players, particularly in beauty and select personal luxury categories. These brands are gaining share through culturally relevant product aesthetics, digital-first and engagement-oriented go-to-consumer strategies as well as competitive price positioning enabled by local access to inputs and supply chains.

As competition intensifies in a low-growth environment, the gap between winners and laggards is widening, with consumers consolidating their spending toward a smaller number of preferred brands that deliver perceived "true value."

Outlook for 2026
Looking ahead, Bain expects China's personal luxury goods market to see modest growth in 2026, albeit with continued volatility and uncertainty.  A growing middle class, improving consumer confidence and favorable policies are expected to help direct more luxury consumption back to the mainland, while growth will remain highly category- and brand-dependent.

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SOURCE Bain & Company