Cincinnati Financial Reports Third-Quarter 2010 Results

CINCINNATI, Oct. 27 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cincinnati Financial Corporation (Nasdaq: CINF) today reported:

• $156 million, or 95 cents per share, of net income for the third quarter of 2010 compared with a net income of $171 million, or $1.05 per share, in the third quarter of 2009.
• $56 million, or 34 cents per share, of operating income* compared with operating income of $96 million, or 59 cents per share.
• Net income and operating income for the third quarter of 2010 declined due to property casualty insurance results that were lower by $42 million after taxes. For the first nine months of 2010, the contribution from property casualty insurance rose $25 million over the year-ago period. The contribution to net income from investments, including net realized investment gains, rose $26 million for the quarter and $42 million for the nine-month period.
• $30.80 book value per share at September 30, 2010, up approximately 6 percent from June 30, 2010, and 5 percent from December 31, 2009.
• 9.4 percent value creation ratio for the first nine months of 2010, compared with 15.0 percent for the same period of 2009.

Insurance Operations Third-quarter Highlights

• 103.9 percent third-quarter 2010 property casualty combined ratio, up 8.8 percentage points from one year ago primarily due to a lower benefit from reserve development on prior accident years and relatively higher weather-related catastrophe losses.
• 1 percent increase in property casualty net written premiums, including personal lines segment growth of 9 percent.
• $109 million property casualty new business written by agencies, up $2 million from third-quarter 2009. $11 million was contributed during the quarter by all agencies appointed since the beginning of 2009.
• 4 cents per share contribution from life insurance to third-quarter operating income, matching the year ago contribution.

Investment and Balance Sheet Highlights

• Investment income, after income tax effects, grew 1 percent in the third quarter of 2010. On a nine-month basis, it grew 4 percent, driven by pre-tax interest income growth of 7 percent.
• 5 percent nine-month increase in fair value of invested assets plus cash at September 30, 2010, including bond portfolio growth of 8 percent.
• Parent company cash and marketable securities of $1.079 billion at September 30, 2010, up 8 percent from year-end.

Attaining Milestones: Financial Strength

Kenneth W. Stecher, president and chief executive officer, commented, "The balance sheet strength of Cincinnati Financial Corporation grew as of September 30, 2010, with assets topping $15 billion and shareholders' equity reaching $5 billion.

"Book value per share rose 6 percent during the third quarter and 5 percent over the nine-month period. The increase for both periods was primarily due to increased fair value of our investment portfolio, with our common stock portfolio growing more than the bond portfolio during the third quarter. Investment income rose compared with the year-ago quarter, but the trend for the sequential quarter declined as we replaced matured or called bonds with ones that generally pay lower interest.

"We sold our Verisk holding during the third quarter and plan to reinvest the proceeds – more than $80 million of after-tax realized gains – in dividend-paying equities. Realized investment gains on equity sales more than offset a negative income contribution from property casualty insurance operations, with market and economic pressures continuing to affect demand and pricing in our commercial business segment.

"We expect initiatives already in progress to drive incremental improvement of our insurance underwriting results. In the interim, our exceptional level of financial strength lets us honor our strong relationships with shareholders, independent agent representatives and policyholders by maintaining consistency and a long-term approach. This month, shareholders received a regular cash dividend that reflected 50 consecutive years of annual increases, a record matched by only a handful of public companies."

Meeting Challenges: Insurance Operations Growth and Profitability

Stecher noted, "With the support of our agents, we are declining business we consider underpriced and, at the same time, enjoying growth in states and lines of business that we have targeted for premium growth. Our total new business premiums rose $2 million over last year's third quarter, thanks to increases from states where we began marketing since 2008, as well as from personal lines. Overall written premiums, which include renewing policies at our high policy retention rate, also rose slightly for the quarter. Written premium growth in personal lines and excess and surplus lines more than offset the 3 percent decline in our larger commercial segment.

"Our overall property casualty combined ratio was unsatisfactory at 103.9 percent for the quarter and 104.7 percent for the nine months. Profitability of commercial casualty, our largest line of business and representing nearly one-third of our commercial segment, continued strong.

"Our challenge remains to improve performance of our homeowner personal line of business and our workers' compensation commercial line, which have been offsetting otherwise profitable overall underwriting results. One of the ways we evaluate the effects of our underwriting initiatives is to look at the loss and loss expenses ratio before catastrophe losses and prior accident year reserve development. For the nine months, that measure for commercial lines came within 1 percentage point of full-year 2009 although pricing trends worsened. The same measure for personal lines, while still below a break-even point, improved almost 3 percentage points.

"We believe pricing precision accounts for much of the improvement, and we will repair our underperforming lines by targeting further precision. We first used predictive analytics tools for this purpose in homeowners, then workers' compensation and more recently for the personal auto line of business, and we are developing them for our other major lines of commercial business.

"In addition, we are addressing underwriting performance through several other initiatives. We are taking selective rate increases for homeowners, speeding up our response to workers' compensation claims, providing more specialized staff support for that line and expanding our proactive loss control services. All of these actions, together with our reserve practices that consistently produce favorable development over time, put us on track to resume historical underwriting results well above industry averages.

"In conclusion, we remain confident in our ability to deliver better results and shareholder value over the long term. Our time-tested business model and financial strength is the foundation. Strategic initiatives to improve operating performance are beginning to bear fruit and also place us in a better position to grow earnings at a faster pace when market conditions are more favorable."

• $6 million or 1 percent increase in total third-quarter 2010 property casualty net written premiums, reflecting various targeted growth initiatives that produced increases of $18 million in personal lines and $5 million in excess and surplus lines.
• $2 million increase in new business written by agencies in the third quarter of 2010 compared with the third quarter of 2009, including a decrease of $2 million for commercial lines that was offset by an increase of $4 million for personal lines.
• 1,227 agency relationships with 1,524 reporting locations marketing standard market property casualty insurance products at September 30, 2010, compared with 1,180 agency relationships with 1,463 reporting locations at year-end 2009. Seventy-one new agency appointments were made during the first nine months of 2010, exceeding the initial full-year target of 65. The company now markets in 38 states including Connecticut, where its first agency appointment was announced in October.
• 8.8 percentage-point rise in the third-quarter combined ratio, including 2.9 points for higher catastrophe losses from weather events.
• Underwriting results benefitted from favorable prior accident year reserve development of $61 million for the third quarter of 2010, a lower level of benefit compared with $91 million for the same period of 2009, which accounted for 4.2 percentage points of the increase in the combined ratio.
• 1.7 percentage point improvement in the nine-month combined ratio was driven by a higher level of benefit from favorable prior accident year reserve development and lower weather-related catastrophe losses.

• $17 million or 3 percent decrease in third-quarter 2010 commercial lines net written premiums. The third-quarter and nine month periods trended similarly and were largely driven by lower renewal written premiums reflecting stable policy retention and modest pricing declines.
• $2 million and $18 million declines in third quarter and first nine months of 2010 new business written premiums compared with the same periods of 2009, due to continued strong competition and our intention to avoid writing business we considered underpriced. $13 million increase for three newest states of operation during the nine-month period while other states decreased by $31 million or 14 percent.
• 11.0 percentage-point third-quarter combined ratio increase due primarily to higher weather-related losses and a lower level of benefit from favorable prior accident year reserve development.
• 0.5 percentage point rise in the nine-month combined ratio reflected fairly stable current accident year results and higher weather-related catastrophe losses offset by a higher level of benefit from favorable prior accident year reserve development.
• 54.4 percent nine-month loss and loss expense ratio for the largest line of business in the segment, commercial casualty, in line with full-year 2009 at 54.6 percent.
• 73.1 percent nine-month ratio for current accident year losses and loss expenses before catastrophes, increased slightly from 72.5 percent full-year 2009.

• $18 million or 9 percent increase in third-quarter 2010 personal lines net written premiums, reflecting improved pricing and strong new business growth. The third-quarter and nine-month periods trended similarly and were largely driven by higher renewal and new business written premiums that reflected improved pricing.
• 1.1 percentage-point increase in the third-quarter combined ratio as higher technology related costs in underwriting expenses offset lower total loss and loss expenses.
• 8.9 percentage-point nine-month combined ratio improvement driven by lower losses, primarily from weather-related catastrophes, but also other losses that included the effect of improved pricing.
• 68.1 percent nine-month ratio for current accident year losses and loss expenses before catastrophes, improved from 70.9 percent full year 2009 primarily due to better pricing and a 2.1 percentage point favorable effect from lower new losses greater than $250,000.

• $8 million or 24 percent growth in third-quarter 2010 earned premiums and 17 percent nine-month growth, reflecting marketing advantages of competitive products, personal service and policies backed by financial strength. Five percent rise in face amount of life policies in force to $73.134 billion at September 30, 2010, from $69.815 billion at year-end 2009.
• $37 million in third-quarter 2010 fixed annuity deposits received compared with $70 million in third-quarter 2009 and $181 million in full-year 2009. Cincinnati Life does not offer variable or indexed products.
• Third-quarter 2010 profit was in line with 2009. Profit for the nine-month period declined primarily due to the unlocking of actuarial assumptions for our universal life contracts, which increased underwriting expenses. Nine-month expenses were also up from higher commissions and expenses due to growth in term life insurance and fixed annuities.
• GAAP shareholders' equity for The Cincinnati Life Insurance Company increased during the third quarter of 2010 by $46 million, or 6 percent, to $776 million. Net after-tax unrealized gains were up $38 million.

• 1 percent third-quarter 2010 and 5 percent nine-month growth in pre-tax investment income. A steeper year-over-year decline in bond yields slowed the current quarter rate of growth relative to the nine-month period.
• $283 million or 27 percent third-quarter 2010 increase in pre-tax unrealized investment portfolio gains, including a $198 million or 36 percent for the bond portfolio and $85 million or 17 percent for the equity portfolio.

• $11.750 billion in cash and invested assets at September 30, 2010, up from $11.200 billion at December 31, 2009.
• $8.466 billion bond portfolio at September 30, 2010, with an average rating of A2/A and with an 8 percent increase in fair value during the first nine months of 2010.
• $2.757 billion equity portfolio was 23.7 percent of invested assets, including $580 million in pre-tax net unrealized gains at September 30, 2010.
• $3.641 billion of statutory surplus for the property casualty insurance group at September 30, 2010, down slightly from $3.648 billion at December 31, 2009. Ratio of net written premiums to property casualty statutory surplus for the 12 months ended September 30, 2010, of 0.8-to-1, unchanged from the 12 months ended December 31, 2009.
• Value creation ratio of 7.1 percent for the third quarter of 2010 is the sum of 1.4 percent from shareholder dividends plus 5.7 percent from change in book value per share.

For additional information or to register for our conference call webcast, please visit www.cinfin.com/investors.

Safe Harbor Statement

This is our "Safe Harbor" statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements in this report. Some of those risks and uncertainties are discussed in our 2009 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 23. Although we often review or update our forward-looking statements when events warrant, we caution our readers that we undertake no obligation to do so.

Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to:

• Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns, environmental events, terrorism incidents or other causes
• Increased frequency and/or severity of claims
• Inadequate estimates or assumptions used for critical accounting estimates
• Recession or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies
• Delays in adoption and implementation of underwriting and pricing methods that could increase our pricing accuracy, underwriting profit and competitiveness
• Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for any business segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude that segment could not achieve sustainable profitability
• Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting the company's equity portfolio and book value
• Events, such as the credit crisis, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:
  • Significant or prolonged decline in the value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)
  • Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities
  • Significant rise in losses from surety and director and officer policies written for financial institutions
• Prolonged low interest rate environment or other factors that limit the company's ability to generate growth in investment income or interest rate fluctuations that result in declining values of fixed-maturity investments, including declines in accounts in which we hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets
• Increased competition that could result in a significant reduction in the company's premium volume
• Changing consumer insurance-buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies that could alter our competitive advantages
• Inability to obtain adequate reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for non-payment or delay in payment by reinsurers
• Events or conditions that could weaken or harm the company's relationships with its independent agencies and hamper opportunities to add new agencies, resulting in limitations on the company's opportunities for growth, such as:
  • Downgrades of the company's financial strength ratings
  • Concerns that doing business with the company is too difficult
  • Perceptions that the company's level of service, particularly claims service, is no longer a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace
  • Delays or inadequacies in the development, implementation, performance and benefits of technology projects and enhancements
• Actions of insurance departments, state attorneys general or other regulatory agencies, including a change to a federal system of regulation from a state-based system, that:
  • Restrict our ability to exit or reduce writings of unprofitable coverages or lines of business
  • Place the insurance industry under greater regulatory scrutiny or result in new statutes, rules and regulations
  • Increase our expenses
  • Add assessments for guaranty funds, other insurance related assessments or mandatory reinsurance arrangements; or that impair our ability to recover such assessments through future surcharges or other rate changes
  • Limit our ability to set fair, adequate and reasonable rates
  • Place us at a disadvantage in the marketplace
  • Restrict our ability to execute our business model, including the way we compensate agents
• Adverse outcomes from litigation or administrative proceedings
• Events or actions, including unauthorized intentional circumvention of controls, that reduce the company's future ability to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002
• Unforeseen departure of certain executive officers or other key employees due to retirement, health or other causes that could interrupt progress toward important strategic goals or diminish the effectiveness of certain longstanding relationships with insurance agents and others
• Events, such as an epidemic, natural catastrophe or terrorism, that could hamper our ability to assemble our workforce at our headquarters location
• Difficulties with technology or data security breaches could negatively affect our ability to conduct business and our relationships with agents, policyholders and others

Further, the company's insurance businesses are subject to the effects of changing social, economic and regulatory environments. Public and regulatory initiatives have included efforts to adversely influence and restrict premium rates, restrict the ability to cancel policies, impose underwriting standards and expand overall regulation. The company also is subject to public and regulatory initiatives that can affect the market value for its common stock, such as measures affecting corporate financial reporting and governance. The ultimate changes and eventual effects, if any, of these initiatives are uncertain.