Clarus Poll: Romney Leads GOP 2012 Field, Gains Against Obama

Embargo for reporting 5 a.m., Thursday March 25th

WASHINGTON, March 24 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new nonpartisan nationwide poll shows that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is currently the strongest GOP presidential candidate for the 2012 election. The poll also shows President Obama leading all potential Republican candidates, but by narrower margins than he did last August.

The poll was conducted March 17-20, 2010 by Clarus Research Group, a Washington, D.C.-based polling firm, using live telephone interviewers. It was based on a representative nationwide sample of 1,050 U.S. registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The survey was not sponsored or paid for by any client, candidate or political party.

OBAMA RE-ELECTION

In a head-to-head match-up, Obama leads Romney 45 percent to 41 percent with 14 percent undecided. Though still behind the incumbent, Romney has strengthened his position since last August when the Clarus Poll showed Obama leading him by a 47-38 percent.

"Romney is the early polling frontrunner for the Republican nomination," said Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus. "He has improved his standing against Obama and runs first among Republicans for the 2012 presidential nomination."

In the poll, Obama leads former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin 52 percent to 34 percent, close to the 53 percent to 34 percent lead he posted against her in August.

"Though he continues to top all the potential GOP candidates surveyed, President Obama captures more than 50 percent of the vote only against Palin in the latest poll," said Faucheux.

In presidential trial heats, Obama leads former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee 47 percent to 39 percent, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 48 percent to 36 percent, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 49 percent to 37 percent.

"Gingrich improved his standing since the August poll when he was trailing Obama by 18 points. He's narrowed the gap to 12 points," said Faucheux. "Relative to Obama, Huckabee and Palin experienced only minimal improvement since August."

GOP NOMINATION

Romney leads the potential GOP nomination field among Republican voters. Results were: Romney 29 percent, Huckabee 19 percent, Palin 18 percent, Gingrich 13 percent, Jeb Bush 8 percent, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels 1 percent, and South Dakota Sen. John Thune 1 percent.  Two percent volunteered candidates who were not named in the survey's questionnaire, and 9 percent were undecided.

"Some pundits believe that the health care reforms Romney supported in Massachusetts as governor could hurt him among Republicans now that Obama's health care package has become law," said Faucheux. "It remains to be seen whether this attack will gain traction against Romney's nomination prospects." Interviewing for the poll was completed the day before the U.S. House passed the health care bill.

BEST CHANCE TO BEAT OBAMA

When Republicans were asked which of the same list of potential candidates had the best chance of defeating President Obama in 2012, Romney captured 42 percent to Huckabee's 14 percent, Palin's 11 percent, and Gingrich's 10 percent.  Jeb Bush received 5 percent, Daniels 2 percent, and Thune 1 percent.

TOP REPUBLICAN SPOKESPERSON

Currently, Romney and Arizona Sen. John McCain are seen as the Republican Party's top spokespersons. However, neither one polls over 14 percent. They are closely followed by Gingrich, TV commentator Glenn Beck, and radio commentator Rush Limbaugh. (See entire list, following).

APPEAL OF INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE

Twenty-five percent of the nation's electorate said they would "definitely" consider voting for "an independent candidate with moderate views on most issues" in the 2012 presidential race, and an additional 42 percent said they would "probably" consider doing so. Twenty-eight percent said they would "definitely" or "probably" not consider voting for an independent candidate.

"This poll shows that a serious independent candidate would have a shot at 25 percent of the vote, maybe more," said Faucheux. "This is 6 points higher than the 19 percent independent Ross Perot received in 1992. Of course, it ultimately depends upon the qualifications and appeal of the actual, flesh-and-blood candidate and whether he or she has the resources to mount a full-fledged nationwide campaign."

Clarus Research Group (http://www.clarusrg.com), a nonpartisan polling firm headquartered in Washington, D.C., is headed by Ron Faucheux, its president and chief analyst.

Topline results from the Clarus Poll:

PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS (Questions asked of all registered voters surveyed, N=1,050: "If the next presidential election were held today, and the two candidates were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican __________, for whom would you vote?")

INDEPENDENT PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE IN 2012 (After the general election trial heats, this question was asked of all registered voters surveyed, N=1,050: "If an independent candidate with moderate views on most issues ran for president in 2012, would you definitely consider voting for that candidate, would you probably consider voting for that candidate, would you probably NOT consider voting for that candidate or would you definitely NOT consider voting for that candidate?)

REPUBLICAN 2012 PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION RACE (These two questions were asked only of self-identified Republicans (and independents who say they lean Republican) N=415: "If the following candidates were seeking the next Republican Presidential nomination, which ONE would now most likely favor... (ROTATE NAMES) Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Jeb Bush, John Thune, or Mitch Daniels?"– AND – "Of the following possible Republican presidential nominees, which ONE do you think would have the best chance to beat Barack Obama in the general election... (ROTATE NAMES) Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Jeb Bush, John Thune, or Mitch Daniels?")

* = Candidate's name not included in poll                         Other = volunteered responses

KNOWN NAME OR NEW FACE: (Asked after the nomination trial heat and asked only of self-identified Republicans (and independents who say they lean Republican) N=415: "Looking ahead to 2012, do you think the Republican Party should nominate a candidate for president who is already well known nationally or do you think the party should nominate a new face?")

TOP REPUBLICAN SPOKESPERSON: (Question asked after the nomination trial heat and asked only of self-identified Republicans (and independents who say they lean Republican) N=415: "Which ONE of the following do you regard as the major spokesperson for the Republican Party today –(ROTATE NAMES) George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, John McCain, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Michael Steele, Glenn Beck, John Boehner, or Mitch McConnell?")

SOURCE Clarus Research Group