ANN ARBOR, Mich., Oct. 6, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Hillary Clinton gains in voter share, while Donald Trump stagnates in the week following the first presidential debate, according to new research from the American Customer Satisfaction Index. Clinton gained 2 percentage points to a voter share of 52 percent, pulling further ahead of Trump who remains at 38 percent.
To predict voter intent, the ACSI is applying economic models that show customer satisfaction predicts consumer behavior. Consumers make purchase decisions based on expected outcomes as reflected in their satisfaction with current experiences. If the electorate behaves in a similar manner, then they will vote for the candidate whom they believe will provide greater utility once in office.
The ACSI characterizes supporters as "strong" or "weak" depending on the gap in satisfaction between candidates. By this measure, strong supporters are unlikely to shift. Clinton's edge in strong supporters continues to grow, and Trump's deficit in strong support now stands at
11 percentage points (39% to 28%). Even as the voter-share gap between the two candidates grows, voter satisfaction with both campaigns erodes. Each candidate drops 3 percent, with Clinton scoring 75 on ACSI's 100-point scale and Trump falling to 73.
"Voter share is a spectrum of support, stronger on the outsides and more ambivalent in the middle," says Claes Fornell, ACSI founder and Chairman. "Voters that shift into one camp or another are typically in the middle of the spectrum, so as Clinton adds voter share it also has the effect of diluting average voter satisfaction. Trump's voter share remains the same, but those supporters are less satisfied after his poor performance at the first debate."
Demographic results remain stable, with one notable exception. For the first time since the ACSI Presidential Election Survey began, Clinton pulls ahead of Trump post-debate among those with less than a college degree (Clinton 48% vs. Trump 44%).
A predictor of consumer behavior, the ACSI is applying its methodology to the presidential race to gauge voter preferences. The ACSI surveyed 2,798 registered voters nationwide between September 26 and September 30, 2016, for a total of 10,609 since the survey began on August 1, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 2.5 points for ACSI scores and +/- 2.5 percentage points for voter share. The ACSI Presidential Election Survey will report results weekly through Election Day. Visit our blog ACSIMatters.com for additional data and tables.
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No advertising or other promotional use can be made of the data and information in this release without the express prior written consent of ACSI LLC.
The American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) is a national economic indicator of customer evaluations of the quality of products and services available to household consumers in the United States. The ACSI uses data from interviews with roughly 70,000 customers annually as inputs to an econometric model for analyzing customer satisfaction with more than 300 companies in 43 industries and 10 economic sectors, including various services of federal and local government agencies.
ACSI results are released throughout the year, with all measures reported on a scale of 0 to 100. ACSI data have proven to be strongly related to a number of essential indicators of micro and macroeconomic performance. For example, firms with higher levels of customer satisfaction tend to have higher earnings and stock returns relative to competitors. Stock portfolios based on companies that show strong performance in ACSI deliver excess returns in up markets as well as down markets. At the macro level, customer satisfaction has been shown to be predictive of both consumer spending and GDP growth.
ACSI and its logo are Registered Marks of the University of Michigan, licensed worldwide exclusively to American Customer Satisfaction Index LLC with the right to sublicense.
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SOURCE American Customer Satisfaction Index