HOUSTON, Oct. 27 /PRNewswire/ -- Chemical Market Associates, Inc. (CMAI) announces the completion of the 2011 World Methanol Analysis, an annual global study that covers historical trends and future projections for supply, demand, production, capacity, trade, pricing and profitability of the global methanol industry for the period 2005 to 2015. Included with each analysis is 12 months access to CMAI's online capacity and supply/demand databases with a mid-term supply/demand update incorporating CMAI's latest market outlook. The 2011 edition, for the first time, features CMAI's market sector forecasts on vehicle production and construction as well as projections of the middle class size in the BRIC countries. The analysis is a necessary resource for business managers and planning professionals who need to make strategic business decisions in a rapidly changing global economic and market environment.
The initial period of the 2011 World Methanol Analysis begins with the trough, as the final wave of new capacity arrives in the market, but also as demand recovery is well underway following the global recession. Global methanol demand growth was robust in 2010 and is expected to continue at about the same pace. China continues to be the demand driver across all derivatives, as well as fuels applications. The methanol industry is anticipated to rapidly advance to a balance position by the end of the forecast period.
Looking forward, methanol demand will lead the recovery and global demand dynamics will drive the market behavior, as the roller coaster of supply additions will ease, and operating rates of China's marginal production will adjust to meet the dynamic demand growth.
Methanol is in a period of rapid transition, with fuels applications growing more than three times as fast as traditional methanol derivatives. MTO/MTP is fast emerging with yet unknown implications to the merchant methanol market. Multiple variations of the MTO/MTP business model are expected, and the methanol plant scale will increase for world scale olefins plants. Potential timing offsets between the methanol plant and olefins plant builds and potential merchant methanol sourcing creates possible significant disruption.
Scenarios for alternate demand growth trends as well as supply addition alternatives are presented with underlying causal factors for these diverse futures, as well as the implications these scenarios have on the methanol industry. For example, with potential supply delays and demand upside combined, the global methanol operating rate may increase by 7-10 percentage points above the base forecast.
As the next methanol cycle peak approaches, a rising price trend is forecast. The long term methanol price forecast is influenced by the supply/demand balance, global energy, and trade/tariff structures, as well as the cost structure of China's marginal producing plants providing the last increment of competitive methanol to the market. Global operating rates affect the shape of the global supply cost curve and the location on the curve, where demand intersects at the cost level of the last increment of capacity.
To find out more about the current market issues and CMAI's outlook for this industry, order the 2011 World Methanol Analysis now at www.cmaiglobal.com. The analysis is available in book and CD-ROM format, with access to CMAI's Online Capacity and Supply/Demand databases. With updates to the Capacity database as changes in the marketplace occur, and a bi-annual update to the Supply/Demand database, clients benefit from up-to-date market information necessary for strategic business decisions.
For a detailed cost curve analysis of the global methanol industry, you may also order the 2010 World Methanol Cost Study. The 2010 World Methanol Cost Study provides a detailed analysis of methanol production facilities throughout the world, revealing the relative average methanol plant production costs of the nearly 250 facilities in operation across the major regions and countries.
CMAI is the premier provider of Market, Planning and Business Advisory services offering a unique combination of consulting analytics and expertise for the global chemical, plastics, fibers and chlor-alkali industries. With offices in Houston, New York, London, Dubai, Dusseldorf, Bangkok, Singapore and Shanghai, CMAI has provided expert business advisory services to a broad base of companies across multiple value chains and geographies since 1979. Clients to CMAI services include chemical and oil companies, technology & EPC companies, law firms, banking and financial institutions, plastic converters, textile & apparel manufacturers, brand-owners, grocers/retailers, government agencies and trading companies.
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SOURCE Chemical Market Associates, Inc.