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Commodities Gained on Strengthening Demand

Credit Suisse logo. (PRNewsFoto/Credit Suisse)

News provided by

Credit Suisse AG

Nov 15, 2017, 08:30 ET

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NEW YORK, Nov. 15, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Commodities gained in October on strengthening demand for most sectors, according to Credit Suisse Asset Management.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return performance was positive for the month, with 14 out of 22 Index constituents posting gains.

Credit Suisse Asset Management observed the following:

  • Livestock gained 10.57%. Lean Hogs and Live Cattle were both supported by strong domestic and export demand.
  • Industrial Metals rose 5.83%, led higher by Nickel, due to increased demand expectations for usage in electric car batteries.
  • Energy was 2.46% higher as crude oil and petroleum product inventory levels continued to decline. US domestic crude oil refining demand returned to above average seasonal levels, while volumes of crude exports rose to new highs.
  • Precious Metals decreased 0.71%, led lower by Gold. The US Dollar strengthened in October as the US Senate passed the 2018 fiscal year budget, which may pave a gateway to potential tax reform.
  • Agriculture declined 0.92%, pressured lower by Wheat, after the USDA reported larger-than-expected US production for the 2017 crop year and increased its forecasts for a global surplus.

Nelson Louie, Global Head of Commodities for Credit Suisse Asset Management, said: "Numerous weather events have had significant economic impacts to various countries so far this year. These shocks impacted key commodity producing regions, and weather continues to have the potential to significantly affect the supply fundamentals of energy and agricultural commodities. Thus far, expectations are for a relatively weak La Niña effect over the Pacific Ocean to occur before year end. However, if that were to strengthen, it could disrupt production for some crops while increasing natural gas heating demand in other parts of the region. Despite multiple hurricanes causing severe flooding and some infrastructure damage, forcing some local economies to come to temporary standstills, US third quarter GDP came in higher-than-expected at 3%. Consumer confidence in the US economy rose in October, as the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment reached its highest level since 2004. In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in September. These positive economic indicators continue to provide support for a probable rate hike in December."

Christopher Burton, Senior Portfolio Manager for the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy, added: "In Europe, tensions escalated between Catalonia's regional government and the Spanish national government. However, the Eurozone's economic recovery continued into the beginning of the fourth quarter. After the European Central Bank's latest meeting held late in October, ECB President Draghi announced that it will begin to reduce the monthly bond purchasing amount by half beginning in 2018, though he also stated he would continue the program longer-than-expected, highlighting that the ECB will continue to divert from US policy by remaining more dovish. This divergence of global central bank policies creates additional uncertainty and the potential to increase currency volatility. However, even as the US and some other central banks begin to tighten, they remain incredibly accommodative by historical standards, while the world's major economies are growing in a coordinated fashion. The potential for inflation risk remains, highlighting the benefit of holding commodities as a valuable hedge against unexpected inflation."

About the Credit Suisse Total Commodity Return Strategy
Credit Suisse's Total Commodity Return Strategy is managed by a team with over 30 years of experience, and seeks to outperform the return of a commodities index, such as the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return or the S&P GSCI Total Return Index, using both a quantitative and qualitative commodity research process. Commodity index total returns are achieved through:

  • Spot Return: price return on specified commodity futures contracts;
  • Roll Yield: impact due to migration of futures positions from near to far contracts; and
  • Collateral Yield: return earned on collateral for the futures.

As of October 31, 2017, the Team managed approximately USD 8.5 billion in assets globally. 

Credit Suisse AG
Credit Suisse AG is one of the world's leading financial services providers and is part of the Credit Suisse group of companies (referred to here as 'Credit Suisse'). As an integrated bank, Credit Suisse offers clients its combined expertise in the areas of private banking, investment banking and asset management. Credit Suisse provides advisory services, comprehensive solutions and innovative products to companies, institutional clients and high-net-worth private clients globally, as well as to retail clients in Switzerland. Credit Suisse is headquartered in Zurich and operates in over 50 countries worldwide. The group employs approximately 46,720 people. The registered shares (CSGN) of Credit Suisse's parent company, Credit Suisse Group AG, are listed in Switzerland and, in the form of American Depositary Shares (CS), in New York. Further information about Credit Suisse can be found at www.credit-suisse.com.

Important Legal Information
This document was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of Credit Suisse as of the date of writing and are subject to change. It has been prepared solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It does not constitute an offer or an invitation by or on behalf of Credit Suisse to any person to buy or sell any security. Any reference to past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The information and analysis contained in this publication have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but Credit Suisse does not make any representation as to their accuracy or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof.

Certain information contained in this document constitutes "Forward-Looking Statements" (including observations about markets and industry and regulatory trends as of the original date of this document), which can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may", "will", "should", "expect", "anticipate", "target", "project", "estimate", "intend", "continue" or "believe", or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties beyond our control, actual events, results or performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such statements. Credit Suisse has no obligation to update any of the forward-looking statements in this document.

Certain risks relating to investing in Commodities and Commodity-Linked Investments:  Exposure to commodity markets should only form a small part of a diversified portfolio. Investment in commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors. Commodity investments will be affected by changes in overall market movements, commodity volatility, exchange-rate movements, changes in interest rates, and factors affecting a particular industry or commodity, such as drought, floods, weather, livestock disease, embargoes, tariffs and international economic, political and regulatory developments. Commodity markets are highly volatile. The risk of loss in commodities and commodity-linked investments can be substantial. There is generally a high degree of leverage in commodity investing that can significantly magnify losses. Gains or losses from speculative derivative positions may be much greater than the derivative's original cost. An investment in commodities is not a complete investment program and should represent only a portion of an investor's portfolio management strategy.

Copyright © 2017, CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Press Contact
Candice Sun, Corporate Communications, +1 (212) 325-8226, [email protected]

SOURCE Credit Suisse AG

Related Links

http://www.credit-suisse.com

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