Container: Overcapacity To Haunt Mid Term, Asia-Europe Most Exposed
NEW YORK, Aug. 16, 2011 /PRNewswire/ --Reportlinker.com announces that a new market research report is available in its catalogue:
Container: Overcapacity To Haunt Mid Term, Asia-Europe Most Exposed
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Volumes Up, Rates Down
Although the volume of containers handled at global bellwether ports continues to increase, rate levels are still falling. BMI fears that this overcapacity will continue over the mid term, with a new slew of mega-vessels - including Maersk Line's 18,000 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) fleet - due online from 2013.
Our fear is that with 2012 set to be another year of record growth in the global box shipping fleet, the sector will not find any relief from overcapacity, and this is bad news for container lines' bottom lines.
Drivers Key Views
?? Throughput volumes up year-on-year (y-o-y), but weakening consumer sentiment is a threat to the recovery's strength. ?? Another downward revision from BMI on the US economy is on the cards.
Bellwethers Key Views
?? Global volumes increasing y-o-y.
?? Shanghai to remain the global number one container port.
?? Decline in number of vessels through the Suez Canal, but increasing volumes is a trend set to continue in the mid term as more mega-vessels come online.
Rates Key Views
?? Rates to continue ticking lower.
?? BMI is more bullish on the transpacific, as lines have been decreasing capacity.
?? Strategy of expansion to expand on Asia-Europe stems from the curse of the mega-vessels.
Capacity Key Views
?? Overcapacity to continue plaguing Asia-Europe in particular, due to more mega-vessel orders.
?? Emerging trade routes are the best protected from the rate decline.
?? Companies set for a loss for 2011 as rates continue their downward trajectory.
Executive Summary.............. 7
Overview . 7
Volumes Up, Rates Down.......... 7
Drivers ..... 7
Key Views ............. 7
Bellwethers .................... 7
Key Views ............. 7
Rates ........ 7
Key Views ............. 7
Capacity ... 7
Key Views ............. 7
Container: Asia – Europe Most Exposed.... 8
Overcapacity To Plague Mid Term....... 8
Overview............... 8
Drivers...... 8
Key Views.............. 8
US Consumer Sentiment In Decline................ 8
CHART: Confidence Waning .....8
Reuters/ University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment
European Consumer Market Strengthening..... 8
CHART: Tracking Up9
European Consumer Sentiment '08-'10
Bellwethers.................... 9
Key Views.............. 9
Number Of Ships Drops, But Volumes Rise..... 9
CHART: Back On Course..............9
Suez Canal Throughput Tonnes (000)
Shanghai Streaking Ahead, Singapore In Decline................ 9
CHART: Out In Front..................10
Asian Bellwethers Jan-May 2011 % Change y-o-y
US Ports Getting Back To Pre-Downturn Levels................. 10
CHART: On Target..10
Port Of Los Angeles Container Throughput (TEU)
European Box Continues......... 10
Rates....... 10
Key Views............ 10
Big-Money Routes No Longer Raking In The Cash.............11
CHART: Dropping Down...........11
SCFI: USWC (Base Port) and Europe (Base Port)
Bailing Out Of The Transpacific.11
CHART: Abandon Ship...............11
Shipping Lines Which Have Decreased Their Transpacific Exposure
The Curse Of Mega-Vessels.....11
If Two Peak-Season Surcharges Fail, Try Again..................11
Capacity.. 12
Key Views............ 12
When Will Supply and Demand Reach An Equilibrium?..... 12
CHART: Supply Drowning Out Demand...12
Newbuild Deliveries Vessel Capacity (TEU)
TABLE: Newbuilds Due Online In The Mid Term..........12
indicators: OOCL, NOL, Evergreen , Hamburg Sud, Hamburg Sud, Hapag-Llo yd, CSAV ,
Maersk Line , Hanjin Shipping, Costamare- Long term charter for Evergreen .... 12
Shelter From The Storm........... 13
CHART: Intra-Asia A Safe Haven................13
SCFI Index % Change (US$ per TEU/FEU) (August 6 2010- July 22 2011)
Company Profiles............... 14
Maersk Line.................. 14
Overview............. 14
Strategy .............. 14
Routes ................ 14
Fleet ................... 15
SWOT : Maersk line company profile swot................ 14
Financials 2011............ 15
Q111.................... 15
2010 ................... 16
Latest Activity .............. 16
Expanding Further.................... 16
ETR Focus 17
After Intra-Asia Comes Intra-Europe.............. 17
West Africa Focus Intensifies... 17
Russia Expansion On The Cards.................. 17
CMA CGM....... 19
Overview............. 19
Strategy............... 19
SWOT : CMA CGM company profile swot.19
Financials 2010... 20
Latest Activity.............. 20
Selling Up To Meet Debt Restructuring Pledges................. 20
Wary Of Iran Connection.......... 20
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited .................. 21
Overview............. 21
Strategy.. 21
Routes................. 21
Fleet.................... 21
Financial Results 2011............. 21
SWOT : Cosco company profile swot...... 21
Latest Activity.............. 22
Seaspan Takes Delivery Of COSCO Glory ... 22
Containership...... 22
COSCON To Impose War-Risk Surcharge..... 22
Transpacific Upgrades.............. 22
Hapag-Lloyd. 23
Overview............. 23
Strategy .............. 23
Routes ................ 23
SWOT : Hapag-Lloyd company profile swot...............23
Fleet ................... 24
Financial Results 2011............. 24
2010 ................... 24
Latest Activity .............. 24
Oman States Interest............... 24
Full Steam Ahead For Mega-Vessel Order..... 24
Global Assumptions .......... 28
Global Outlook............. 28
Second Half Risks ................... 28
TA BLE : GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS ..28
indicators: Real GDP Growth (%) - US, Eu rozone, Japan, China, World
Consumer Inflation (ave) - US, Eurozone, Japan, China, World
Interest Rates (eop) - Fed Funds Rate, EC B Refinancing Rate, Japan Overnight Call Rate
Exchange Rates (ave) - US$/EUR, JPY /US$, CNY /US$
Oil Prices (ave) - OPEC Basket (US$/bb l), Brent Crude (US$/bb l)
Developed States .................... 29
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS AGGREGATE GROWTH ........29
Indicators: Emerging Markets Aggregate Growth, Latin America - Argentina, Brazil,
Mexico Middle East - Saudi Arabia, UA E, Egypt Africa - South Africa, Nigeria
Emerging Asia - China, Hong Kong, India*, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea,
Taiwan, Thailand Emerging Europe - Russia, Turkey, Czech Re public, Hungary, Poland
Emerging Markets ................... 30
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES REAL GDP GRO WTH FORECAST ............... 30
indicators: Developed States Aggregate Growth - G7, Eurozone , EU-27
Selected Developed States - Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Den mark, Finland,
France , Germany, Ire and, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden ,
Switzerland, United Kingdom
TABLE: REAL GDP GRO WTH CONSENS US FORECASTS .....30
indicators: 2011 - Bloomberg Consensus, BMI 2012 - Bloomberg Consensus, BMI
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Logistics and Freight Industry: Container: Overcapacity To Haunt Mid Term, Asia-Europe Most Exposed
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Nicolas Bombourg
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