CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes Confirm 11.3-Percent Increase in Q4 2013
--U.S. Home Prices Increase of 5.3 Percent Predicted for 2014--
IRVINE, Calif., May 13, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, today released an analysis of home price trends during the fourth quarter of 2013 in more than 380 U.S. markets based on the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes™.*
The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes estimate that home prices increased by 11.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 compared to the same time a year ago. Home prices nationwide were 20 percent above the trough reached in the fourth quarter of 2011, but remained 21 percent below the peak reached in the first quarter of 2006. The analysis projects that price appreciation is expected to slow across all U.S. markets to 5.3 percent nationally through the end of 2014, slightly above its long-term annual average of 4.5 percent recorded since 1975.
"Limited construction of new homes and low inventories of existing homes for sale contributed to the jump in prices," said Dr. David Stiff, principal economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller™. "Developers remain cautious about building too many new houses until they see stronger demand in their markets."
The largest metropolitan areas, defined as those with populations greater than 950,000, that experienced the most rapid appreciation rates on a year-over-year basis compared to fourth quarter 2012 were Las Vegas (+26 percent), Riverside, Calif. (+24 percent) and Oakland, Calif. (+23 percent). The three largest metropolitan areas that experienced no change were Oklahoma City, and Tulsa, Okla. and Virginia Beach, Va.
"There are a number of metropolitan areas that have reached new price peaks, including Houston, Dallas, Denver, Honolulu and Pittsburgh," Dr. Stiff said. "These cities have never achieved price levels quite this high, not even in the record year of 2006."
Of the largest metropolitan areas, those with the greatest projected year-over-year gains through the end of 2014 are Tucson, Ariz. (+11 percent), Rochester, N.Y. (+9 percent) and Hartford, Conn. (+9 percent). The largest metropolitan areas with the smallest projected gains are Nashville, Tenn. (+2 percent), Sacramento, Calif. (+2 percent) and Warren, Mich. (+2 percent).
"For the remainder of 2014, investor demand and sales of foreclosed properties should drop off quickly. Traditional buyers are returning slowly to the market, but cannot replace demand from investors who led the market in recent years," Dr. Stiff said.
The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes are owned and generated by CoreLogic. The historical home price trend information in this report is calculated from the proprietary CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes, supplemented with data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). One-year forecasts in this release are for the 12 months ending on Dec. 31, 2014. CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price forecasts are produced by CoreLogic and Moody's Analytics®.
*This quarterly analysis differs from the S&P/Dow Jones Case-Shiller monthly report. Although both reflect findings from the same dataset, this analysis includes local-level data for a greater number of markets over a different time frame. Additionally, this analysis differs from the monthly CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) report which provides the most current indication of trends in home prices on a monthly basis.
Selected U.S. markets (other metropolitan areas available upon request):
| Metropolitan Area
|
Population
|
Change in Home Prices Q4 2013) |
Change in Home Prices Q4 2013) |
Forecast Change in Home Prices (Q4 2013 to Q4 2014) |
| United States |
316,128,839 |
11.3% |
14.9% |
5.3% |
| Las Vegas, Nev. |
2,027,868 |
25.6% |
29.4% |
4.6% |
| Riverside, Calif. |
4,380,878 |
23.8% |
30.5% |
4.1% |
| Oakland, Calif. |
2,673,096 |
23.3% |
32.0% |
7.2% |
| Sacramento, Calif. |
2,215,770 |
23.0% |
30.2% |
1.7% |
| Los Angeles, Calif. |
10,017,068 |
20.3% |
26.6% |
5.2% |
| San Jose, Calif. |
1,919,641 |
20.1% |
36.8% |
4.0% |
| San Francisco, Calif. |
1,843,180 |
20.0% |
33.4% |
6.7% |
| West Palm Beach, Fla. |
1,372,171 |
18.1% |
23.5% |
3.1% |
| Atlanta, Ga. |
5,505,161 |
17.8% |
13.0% |
2.9% |
| Detroit, Mich. |
1,775,273 |
17.5% |
53.9% |
2.2% |
| Orlando, Fla. |
2,267,846 |
17.3% |
24.6% |
2.3% |
| Fort Lauderdale, Fla. |
1,838,844 |
16.7% |
23.2% |
3.9% |
| Tampa, Fla. |
2,870,569 |
16.1% |
18.3% |
7.0% |
| Miami, Fla. |
2,617,176 |
15.8% |
29.6% |
3.8% |
| Phoenix, Ariz. |
4,398,762 |
14.9% |
40.6% |
3.0% |
| Jacksonville, Fla. |
1,394,624 |
14.0% |
13.5% |
4.6% |
| Warren, Mich. |
2,519,710 |
13.4% |
32.8% |
1.9% |
| Houston, Texas |
6,340,014 |
12.2% |
25.8% |
3.1% |
| Chicago, Ill. |
7,961,024 |
11.5% |
6.2% |
5.1% |
| Tucson, Ariz. |
996,554 |
10.5% |
11.1% |
11.4% |
| Columbus, Ohio |
1,902,404 |
9.7% |
12.9% |
6.5% |
| Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y. |
2,851,884 |
9.6% |
3.4% |
6.1% |
| Austin, Texas |
1,883,051 |
9.3% |
21.7% |
2.5% |
| Salt Lake City, Utah |
1,178,969 |
8.4% |
16.4% |
4.8% |
| Indianapolis, Ind. |
1,823,479 |
8.3% |
9.4% |
6.2% |
| Fort Worth, Texas |
2,248,605 |
8.0% |
15.1% |
7.4% |
| New Orleans, La. |
1,219,225 |
7.3% |
12.6% |
6.6% |
| Milwaukee, Wis. |
1,569,659 |
6.8% |
2.9% |
7.3% |
| Raleigh-Cary, N.C. |
1,214,516 |
6.6% |
5.7% |
5.7% |
| Nashville, Tenn. |
1,674,151 |
6.3% |
12.6% |
1.8% |
| Kansas City, Mo. |
2,080,213 |
6.0% |
12.1% |
6.2% |
| Edison, N.J. |
2,372,590 |
5.9% |
1.0% |
4.5% |
| Philadelphia, Pa. |
4,063,958 |
5.2% |
1.2% |
7.7% |
| Baltimore, Md. |
2,770,738 |
5.2% |
3.7% |
8.2% |
| Richmond, Va. |
1,296,680 |
4.7% |
7.3% |
7.2% |
| St. Louis, Mo. |
2,850,771 |
2.9% |
5.4% |
3.8% |
| Camden, N.J. |
1,253,957 |
2.1% |
-1.0% |
7.8% |
| Hartford, Conn. |
1,215,211 |
1.3% |
-2.8% |
8.9% |
| San Antonio, Texas |
2,277,550 |
0.7% |
10.5% |
3.9% |
| Virginia Beach, Va. |
1,702,484 |
-0.2% |
-1.0% |
2.0% |
| ® 2014 CoreLogic Case-Shiller |
||||
Methodology
The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes use the repeat sales method for index calculation, analyzing data on single-family properties that have two or more recorded sales transactions. Changes in housing types and sizes, or changes in the physical characteristics, of houses are specifically excluded from the calculations to avoid incorrectly affecting the index value. The principal variable used for index calculation is the price change between two arms-length sales of the same single-family home. Sales pairs with approved data are aggregated with all other sales pairs found in a particular Census division, state, metropolitan area, county, or ZIP code market to independently calculate each Case-Shiller index. The national index is a composite of the Case-Shiller Census division indexes. Different weights are assigned to different changes in home prices, based on their statistical distribution in that geographic region. The weighting schemes include price anomalies, high turnover frequency, time interval adjustments and initial home value. Case-Shiller Indexes include data covering thousands of ZIP codes, counties, metropolitan areas and state markets.
About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company's combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 3.3 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic Case-Shiller, CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes and CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective holders.
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