Cox Automotive Forecast: Despite Higher Incentives and Improved Inventory, New-Vehicle Sales Growth Remains Modest in May

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May 24, 2024, 11:00 ET

Annual new-vehicle sales pace in May is forecast to finish near 15.8 million, an increase from last May's 15.5 million level and up 0.1 million from April's 15.7 million pace.
May's sales volume is expected to rise to 1.42 million units, a 3.5% increase from one year ago and a 6.4% increase from April.
More selling days are helping this month's total as this May has 26 sales days, one more than last year and last month.

ATLANTA, May 24, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Cox Automotive forecasts that May's new-vehicle sales will show improvement over last year, driven by significantly increased inventory levels leading to more appealing incentives. However, vehicle affordability issues, driven partly by high interest rates and elevated new-vehicle prices, continue to weigh negatively on sales, as typical monthly payments for new-vehicle loans are above $750.

The seasonally adjusted annual rate SAAR, or sales pace, in May is forecast to finish near 15.8 million, up from last May's 15.5 million level and a modest uptick from last month's 15.7 million pace. Sales volume is expected to rise 3.5% over last year and 6.4% above last month. There are 26 selling days this May, one more than last year and last month.

At the start of May, new-vehicle inventory was at 2.84 million units, 51% above year-ago levels and the highest point since late 2020. But prices have barely budged compared to the same time in 2023. Meanwhile, incentives are running nearly twice the level seen a year ago.

Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough said: "Sales in May generally improve over April as nicer weather brings more shoppers out to dealer lots. Memorial Day weekend often sees many low-price promotions from manufacturers as they try to build strong sales momentum for the summer season. With high inventory levels for several brands, we expect shoppers to see many aggressive offers this year."

May 2024 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast

	Sales Forecast¹					Market Share
Segment	May-24	May-23	Apr-24	YOY%	MOM%	May-24	May-23	YOY
Mid-Size Car	80,000	87,695	73,472	-8.8 %	8.9 %	5.6 %	6.4 %	-0.8 %
Compact Car	110,000	92,666	101,607	18.7 %	8.3 %	7.7 %	6.8 %	1.0 %
Compact SUV/Crossover	250,000	219,605	234,497	13.8 %	6.6 %	17.6 %	16.0 %	1.6 %
Full-Size Pickup Truck	190,000	193,630	179,736	-1.9 %	5.7 %	13.4 %	14.1 %	-0.7 %
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover	225,000	239,154	212,624	-5.9 %	5.8 %	15.8 %	17.4 %	-1.6 %

All Other Segments	565,000	538,874	532,275	4.8 %	6.1 %	39.8 %	39.3 %	0.5 %
Grand Total	1,420,000	1,371,324	1,334,211	3.5 %	6.4 %	100.0 %	100.0 %

¹Cox Automotive Industry Insights data

All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.

About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader^®, Kelley Blue Book^®, Manheim^®, vAuto^®, Dealertrack^®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch^® and FleetNet America^®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.