By 2030, aluminium demand from Electric Vehicles (EVs) will near 10 million tonnes, a ten-fold increase from 2017. The usage of primary aluminium intensive, extrusions and rolled products will be significantly higher than we see in internal combustion engine vehicles today.
Counter to that, scrap intensive secondary castings usage will fall as the shift to full battery electric vehicles occurs. In the coming years, EVs will support primary aluminium demand and impose a limit on scrap demand.
40 million EVs by 2030 and 10 million tonnes of aluminium demand
CRU forecasts global battery electric (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) and hybrid electric (HEV) sales to increase to 42 million vehicles by 2030. From a share of 4% in 2017, we expect electric vehicles to account for approximately 30% of the global vehicle fleet by 2030.
A "greening" of global power and now, increasingly, transport markets has begun: sales of New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), for example, grew by more than 40% year on year globally in 2016. These global trends will have potentially decisive impacts on aluminium markets.
CRU has developed a comprehensive forecasting and scenario evaluation tool with which to understand these impacts and the policy, technological, macroeconomic and societal factors which shape them. This model incorporates a consistent macroeconomic framework, and considers developments in technology and power markets.
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