CRU: How IMO 2020 Will Impact Sulphur Supply

LONDON, July 29, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The decision to implement more stringent sulphur limits for marine fuel will require a significant change in practices of both vessel operators and oil refiners.

CRU considers the impact on sulphur supply to be more of a gradual transition than a step change with much of the supply growth part of the typical capacity expansion of the industry. This Insight will set out CRU's view of when, where and how the reduction of sulphur content in marine fuel will be achieved and the impact it will have on sulphur supply.

IMO 2020: What is changing and when?

In October 2016, the IMO committed to change the legislation in MARPOL Annex VI governing the sulphur content of marine fuels. CRU examined the impact to freight rates from the implementation of the IMO legislation in the Insight IMO MARPOL 2020 creates a generational shock to freight costs but there will also be an impact on oil refiners and the volume of sulphur which is produced.

From 1 January 2020, the sulphur content of bunker fuel will be limited to 0.5%, although the fuel will still be permitted on vessels without scrubbers will have until March 2020. The decision by the IMO was clear on what would need to change but totally absent on how it should be achieved and the lack of direction on the process of implement is a key factor in why there is still no consensus on what the impact of the legislation will be.

What are the options available to vessel operators?

Bunker fuel consumption totals around 5.0 million bpd which is comprised of 3.0 million bpd of <3.5 % high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), 1.6 million bpd of distillate fuel (Marine Gas Oil, MGO), 0.3 million bpd of <0.1% S ultra-low sulphur fuel oil (ULSFO) with the remainder accounted for by LNG. Vessel operators can achieve compliance with the IMO 2020 legislation via a range of strategies which can be split into two routes; consume HSFO with a scrubber or switch to an alternate fuel. The post 2020 fuelling of vessels is not only a question of what but also when. Vessel owners now have fewer available options as implementation approaches.

Read the full story: https://www.crugroup.com/knowledge-and-insights/insights/2019/how-imo-2020-will-impact-sulphur-supply/

Read more about CRU: http://bit.ly/About_CRU 

About CRU

CRU offers unrivalled business intelligence on the global metals, mining and fertilizer industries through market analysis, price assessments, consultancy and events.

Since our foundation by Robert Perlman in 1969, we have consistently invested in primary research and robust methodologies, and developed expert teams in key locations worldwide, including in hard-to-reach markets such as China.

CRU employs over 280 experts and has more than 11 offices around the world, in Europe, the Americas, China, Asia and Australia – our office in Beijing opened in 2004 and Singapore in 2018.

When facing critical business decisions, you can rely on our first-hand knowledge to give you a complete view of a commodity market. And you can engage with our experts directly, for the full picture and a personalised response.

CRU – big enough to deliver a high-quality service, small enough to care about all of our customers.

SOURCE CRU