DeFi Rate estimates Americans will trade more than $2.5 billion on the 2026 World Cup across prediction markets -- a record $1.47 billion on Kalshi alone

SAN DIEGO, June 1, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- DeFi Rate, the prediction-markets research desk of Pacific Tide Media, expects total World Cup volume across prediction markets to clear $2.5 billion, with roughly $1.47 billion trading on Kalshi. That would rank the tournament ahead of March Madness. The Kalshi figure is modeled in detail; the broader total reflects the additional platforms competing for the same trades.

"Soccer has always been treated as a secondary market in the US," said Cheryle Shepstone, Director of Content at DeFi Rate. "The World Cup trading at March Madness levels says that's not necessarily true. The key driver will be the individual matchups — they account for roughly 80 percent of the projected volume, and our data shows most of the action will happen on game day."

DeFi Rate priced the World Cup through analysis on close to 9.8 million individual trades and some $2.44 billion in settled volume across roughly 7,550 market contracts.

Key findings:

• The champion contract is on track for a record. The World Cup winner market is modeled at $253 million, larger than Kalshi's March Madness champion contract ($169 million) and will compete against PGA and NBA title markets.
• Match game volume will land almost entirely on match day. Reviewing soccer trade tapes, individual match-outcome contracts do roughly 90 percent or more of their trading on the day the match is played, leaving little volume to accumulate in advance.
• Match markets carry the forecast. Contracts on individual games account for about $1.19 billion of the Kalshi base case, roughly 80 percent of the total; the champion, advancement, and prop markets together make up the rest.

The Kalshi model centers on $1.47 billion as base case and reaches $1.93 billion if American interest in a typical non-US sporting event spikes.

DeFi Rate aggregated figures from trade-tape, or notional, volume via Kalshi public data through May 29, 2026. Host nation and fixtures interest will determine the final outcome.

Full forecast and details here: https://defirate.com/news/forecast-world-cup-prediction-market-volume-could-hit-2-5-billion/ 

About DeFi Rate

DeFi Rate, part of Pacific Tide Media, aggregates prediction market data and publishes original research and data-led coverage.

Media Contact: Cheryle Shepstone • [email protected]

SOURCE DeFi Rate