Despite consumers' caution restaurants are betting on sales growth in 2026

FAFH industry and segment forecast from IFMA The Food Away from Home Association

CHICAGO, Aug. 25, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic uncertainties may have consumers ordering less often from restaurants and other sources of prepared meals, but the squeezed businesses are far from panicking.

Collectively, they'll increase their purchases of supplies and services by an inflation-adjusted 1.1% in 2026 to meet a moderate rise in consumer demand, according to a just-released forecast from IFMA The Food Away from Home Association.

The trade group also anticipates a slowdown next year in menu inflation, or what many in the industry cite as the key reason for declining orders of meals prepared outside the home. The association expects food costs to rise by 3% next year, compared with the 3.9% it projects for 2025.

The ease in pricing is expected despite the unknown impact of tariffs on the cost of imported foods and other overseas supplies for the food-away-from-home (FAFH) industry.

In addition to releasing its much-anticipated annual forecast for the multi-billion-dollar FAFH trade, IFMA The Food Away from Home Association adjusted its business expectations for 2025. The association is sticking with its February projection of a 0.9% inflation-adjusted or "real" rise in purchases by FAFH operations, which range from fine-dining one-of-a-kinds to c-stores, college dining rooms, employee cafeterias, and school lunchrooms.

The re-affirmed projection of moderate growth comes amid what many in the business characterize as a time of unprecedented uncertainty. Although the impact of the new tariffs has yet to be felt to any remarkable degree, gauges like the University of Michigan's highly respected Index of Consumer Sentiment shows the public is already spooked.

But the new association data indicate the FAFH business expects growth next year, albeit moderate.  And virtually all of the increased sales for operators will likely come from price increases. Patron traffic is expected to continue ebbing, though not as severely as has this year, according to the forecast.

Still, "the sky is not falling," said Charlie McConnell, IFMA's VP of Industry Insights, Education, and Research. "We're the foodservice industry; we'll be fine."

"The forecast for growth during this time of uncertainty speaks to the resilience of the business and the public's refusal to let economic worries temper their love of having someone else do the cooking," said Phil Kafarakis, CEO and President of IFMA The Food Away from Home Association. "The business has weathered wars, recessions, and even a pandemic. It'll emerge from this trying time ever stronger and more innovative."

The statistics underlying the 2026 forecast and updated 2025 projections were compiled for IFMA The Food Away from Home Association by Datassential, a well-respected researcher that specializes in foodservice.

Additional color was provided by the members of the association's Foodservice Leadership Councils, the segment-specific groups of operator members who keep the association grounded in real-world issues and opportunities.

Other key findings of the research:

• Purchases from FAFH suppliers should total $37.4 billion in 2026.
• That translates into a forecast of $1.1 trillion in total FAFH sales to consumers next year.
• Not all of that business will be shared evenly. Restaurants will continue to land the greatest share by far, with forecast sales of $783.9 billion.
• Even with that large sector, there's no tide floating all boats. The fast-casual sector will continue to lead in sales growth, with an expected growth of 2%.
• "Ghost" or virtual restaurants—delivery and takeout-only concepts whose menu items are prepared in the kitchens of other brands—are far from dead. Sales are forecast to top $2 billion in 2026.

Association members may access all projections, including data on the Retail Foodservice category, through the IFMA Scope® portal, which provides an interactive and immersive view of real-time segment and market demographic information to aid in business planning.

About IFMA The Food Away from Home Association
IFMA The Food Away from Home Association is a trade association founded in 1952. The organization empowers, nurtures, and connects an inclusive and diverse $1.5 trillion food-away-from-home ecosystem of manufacturers, distributors, operators, and others. By sharing insights, fostering best practices, and developing networking and educational opportunities through events, IFMA The Food Away from Home Association informs and instructs its members, and motivates change to improve both individual organizations and the food-away-from-home industry at large. For more information, visit ifmaworld.com.

SOURCE IFMA The Food Away from Home Association