Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator Continues Modest Climb, Foreshadowing Steady Economy Improvement

ESI Rises Above 40 for First Time Since June 2008; News of Falling Consumer Prices Offset by Coverage of Layoffs

Jun 30, 2010, 10:00 ET from Dow Jones & Company

NEW YORK, June 30 /PRNewswire/ -- For the third consecutive month, the Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose modestly signaling an improving U.S. economy. For June, the ESI rose above 40 for the first time since 2008, hitting 40.3. The ESI is up slightly from 39.4 in May.

The ESI is determined by in-depth analysis of national news coverage across 15 daily newspapers.

Despite a drop in the U.S. National Unemployment Rate, coverage of the job market remained negative as articles focused on layoffs and workers struggling to find work.

Some of the more positive news topics throughout June, such as consumers benefiting from falling prices and improved economic activity, showed mixed results.  The lower prices which spurred consumers to buy also pinched corporate profits.

"The ESI's modest and steady rise over the last couple of months is a positive sign, but the U.S. is not out of the woods yet," Dow Jones Newswires "Money Talks" Columnist Alen Mattich said. "Anxiety about the U.S.'s employment conditions and questions around Europe's stability are key concerns that are unlikely to subside soon."

The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator aims to predict the health of the U.S. economy by analyzing the coverage of 15 major daily newspapers in the U.S.  Using a proprietary algorithm and derived data technology, the ESI examines every article in each of the newspapers for positive and negative sentiment about the economy. The indicator is calculated through Dow Jones Insight, a media tracking and analysis tool. The technology used for the ESI also powers Dow Jones Lexicon, a proprietary dictionary that allows traders and analysts to determine sentiment, frequency and other relevant complex patterns within news to develop predictive trading strategies.

The ESI's back-testing to 1990 shows that the ESI clearly highlighted the risk that the U.S. economy was sliding into recession in 2001 and 2008 and suggests the indicator can help predict economic turning points as much as seven months in advance of other indicators. More information about the Economic Sentiment Indicator and its development is available at http://dowjones.com/esi.

About Dow Jones Insight

Dow Jones Insight uses innovative text mining and analytic technologies to help organizations keep informed about relevant issues, news, conversations and trends emerging in mainstream, Web and social media.  Dow Jones Insight's global content collection includes more than 25,000 news and information sources as well as blogs, message boards, and posts from YouTube and Twitter.  

About Dow Jones

Dow Jones & Company (www.dowjones.com) is a News Corporation company (NASDAQ: NWS, NWSA; ASX: NWS, NWSLV; www.newscorp.com) and a leading provider of global news and business information. Its principal products include The Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones Newswires, Dow Jones Factiva, Barron's and MarketWatch. Through its Local Media Group, Dow Jones operates community-based newspapers and Web sites. Dow Jones also provides news content to television and radio stations.

The Dow Jones Economic Sentiment Indicator is provided for analysis purposes only and Dow Jones makes no representation that the indicator is a definitive predictor of sentiment or the health of the U.S. economy.  This report does not in any way reflect an opinion of Dow Jones regarding the U.S. economy or the suitability of any investments.

SOURCE Dow Jones & Company



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