DRG Forecasts Market Growth for PCs and Tablets

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Apr 30, 2019, 08:32 ET

BELMONT, Mass., April 30, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Daniel Research Group, a market research firm specializing in forecasting technology markets announces the publication of its updated U.S. Personal Devices 2019-2023 Forecast Report. The report is available on DRG's website, www.DanielResearchGroup.com.

Market Overview

After four years of declining Unit Shipments, the PC and Tablet market will resume growth this year driven by three casual factors, the economy, replacement rates, and user form factor preferences.

United States Total Personal Device Unit Shipments (M)
		2018	2019	*AGR*	2023	CAGR '18- '23
Desktop PCs
	Desktop PCs	5.1	5.2	2.5%	5.9	2.9%
Mobile PCs
	Traditional	16.5	17.4	5.9%	22.4	6.4%
	Convertible	3.3	3.5	5.3%	4.4	5.7%
Total Mobile PCs		19.8	20.9	5.8%	26.8	6.3%

Total PCs		24.8	26.1	5.2%	32.6	5.6%
Tablets
	Detachable	5.7	5.9	4.4%	7.2	4.8%
	Slate	27.9	28.2	1.0%	29.9	1.4%
Total Tablets		33.5	34.1	1.6%	37.1	2.0%

Total PCs and Tablets		58.4	60.2	3.1%	69.7	3.6%
Mobile Phones
	Standard Phones	7.1	4.8	-32.3%	1.3	-28.6%
	Smartphones	150.6	140.4	-6.8%	172.7	2.8%
Total Mobile Phones		157.7	145.2	-7.9%	174.1	2.0%
Total
Total Personal Devices		216.1	205.4	-4.9%	243.8	2.4%
∞∫∆ Daniel Research Group © (2019)

The US Economy
Most economists are forecasting that a continuation of our current slow growth in both GDP and employment is the most likely scenario over the next five years. Stable growth periods increase demand for consumer and enterprise PCs, Tablets, and Mobile Phones. However, structural changes in the economic demographics will influence how that demand will be distributed.

A second factor influencing the demand distribution is the accelerated growth of the mobile workforce. Mobile employee growth will increase 38% faster than total employee growth. Over the next five years, the mobile work force will increase by over 1.7 million. This expanding population of mobile workers had been, and will continue to be, a major driver of Enterprise Mobile PC, Tablet and Mobile Phone demand.

Replacement Rates
Notwithstanding any unanticipated shock to the economy, the most important factor influencing PC, Tablet, and Mobile Phone demand is the rate at which users replace their current device with a new one. The Replacement Cycle Length (RCL), computed as the amount of time required to replace all of the installed base units, given current Unit Shipments and Installed Base Removals is the best estimate to use to predict user replacement behavior.

Changing Users Form Factor Preferences
While adoption rates for Hybrids have been impressive, we believe that they will slow considerably as they are close to reaching their maximum niche penetration. Hybrids now account for 9.3% of the Consumer and 5.9% of the enterprise Mobile PC and Tablet installed base. By 2023 these will increase to only 14.5% and 7.6% respectively.

While Enterprise users prefer Convertible Mobile PCs to Detachable Tables, consumers prefer Detachable Tablets. Currently 70% of the Enterprise and 29% of the consumer Hybrid Installed Base consists of Convertible Mobile PCs. By 2023 the Convertible Mobile PCs will increase to 79% of the Enterprise Hybrid Installed Base, while Detachable Tables will decrease to 28% of the Consumer Hybrid Installed Base.

About Daniel Research Group
DRG is a market research and consulting firm servicing technology clients. Its primary focus is developing custom market models and forecasts utilizing proprietary methodologies and algorithms developed over more than 30 years. The forecast in the report was developed using DRG's EquilibriumSolver (EQS) methodology and application. To learn more about EQS, click on these links – Fact Sheet: http://tinyurl.com/EQSFactSheet, White Paper: http://tinyurl.com/EQSWhitePaper.

Contact
Steve Daniel, President
Daniel Research Group
(617) 484 – 6225
[email protected]
www.DanielResearchGroup.com

SOURCE Daniel Research Group