EarthRisk Technologies Releases Novel Multi-Model Tool for Evaluating Weather Forecast Uncertainty

ForecastRisk Combines TempRisk Model Output with Publicly Available Weather Model Guidance in a Unique Visual Representation

Aug 14, 2013, 11:13 ET from EarthRisk Technologies

SAN DIEGO, Aug. 14, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- EarthRisk Technologies, a pioneer in the research, analysis and visualization of extreme temperatures and weather patterns, released today a groundbreaking new graphical tool for quantifying the likelihood of extreme temperature events. EarthRisk's newest product, ForecastRisk, combines the output of its innovative TempRisk Forecast Model with conventional ensemble output from numerical weather prediction models. Specifically, ForecastRisk displays the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Global Forecast System (GFS) in the same anomaly space with HeatRisk and ColdRisk Scores.

Available for all U.S. regions, ForecastRisk captures the inherent uncertainty associated with weather forecasts by showing the spread in numerical ensemble members in comparison with TempRisk's statistical output.

"Our customers need to make informed decisions about the weather very quickly. We specifically developed ForecastRisk to mirror how our users think about and intuitively compare the various data models available to them," says EarthRisk CEO John Plavan. "Now we've put that data into a single graphical representation, making the process of assessing weather forecast uncertainty much faster, more concrete and repeatable."

By combining TempRisk forecast data and multi-model ensemble forecasts in an insightful way, ForecastRisk offers weather analysts and commodity traders an at-a-glance tool for quickly and easily quantifying model consensus, directional risk and confidence.

"Our beta users tell us that ForecastRisk is literally a game-changer for them," adds Plavan. "The new visualization converts a complex thought process into an instantly digestible format that supports better decisions."

"Commodities trading requires efficient display of quantitative data for fast uptake during key decision points within the trading day," says Adam O'Shay, president and head of trading at Leeward Pointe Capital. "ForecastRisk aggregates vital demand-level data-pieces into an easily digestible format and is a unique decision-analytic that I use daily and is something I cannot find elsewhere in the commodities space."

ForecastRisk is included with Pro and Standard TempRisk subscriptions and is also available as a stand-alone product. It is emailed every business day in a region-specific PDF format.

About EarthRisk Technologies:
EarthRisk Technologies is a San Diego-based software company founded in 2010.  The company's product suite, TempRisk, is a web-based platform that crunches more than 60 years of weather data to formulate the odds of cold snaps and heat waves up to 40 days in advance, a lead-time that is twice as long as any in the  industry. Trading groups, power producers and energy traders around the globe use TempRisk for a climatological edge in their investments. 

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SOURCE EarthRisk Technologies