Emerson College ePoll: Tied Senate Race in Missouri for McCaskill and Hawley, and Right-to-Work Repeal

BOSTON, April 30, 2018 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A new Emerson College Poll in Missouri has the closely watched Senate race between incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill and likely Republican challenger Josh Hawley in a tie, with each candidate receiving 45% of the vote, and 11% of voters undecided. The state's major ballot initiative to overturn the recently passed "Right-to-Work" law is also tied at 40%, with 20% undecided. The poll was conducted April 26-29, 2018 and has a credibility interval of +/- 4.2%.

Though Hawley has a competitive general election ahead of him, he is facing little trouble in the GOP primary to take on McCaskill. Hawley leads the Republican primary with 37% of the vote, near 30 percentage points ahead of second-place finisher and 2016 Libertarian Presidential candidate-turned Republican Senate candidate Austin Petersen at 8%. Courtland Sykes, who made headlines earlier this year after making controversial remarks regarding feminism, is at 6%, with 5% opting for "someone else." Interestingly, 45% of Republican primary voters remain undecided.

Governor Eric Greitens, currently reeling from multiple scandals involving infidelity, blackmail, and campaign finance violations, has an approval rating of 33%, with 46% disapproving. When asked what the Governor should do next, 36% want the Governor to resign, 33% want the governor to remain in office, and 18% want him impeached, which means that 54% of Missouri voters want Greitens out as Governor.

President Trump is just above water with Missouri voters, with a 47% approval rating and 45% disapproval. This represents a major loss of ground for the President, who won the Show-Me State in 2016 by 19%, with 57% of the vote.

Other key findings from the poll include:

Union members, who make up about 18% of the electorate, support the repeal of the right-to-work law by a margin of 48% to 36%. Non-union members are much more divided, narrowly opposing the repeal 42% to 39%.

McCaskill benefits from an enthusiasm advantage, with voters who are "very excited" to vote in 2018 favoring the Senator over her GOP challenger by a 52% to 41% margin.

Both US Senate Candidates are polarizing figures for voters with McCaskill having a 42% favorable and 42% unfavorable rating, while Hawley is generally less known in the State and had a 29% unfavorable and 27% favorable rating.

Methodology

The Emerson College Poll in Missouri was conducted April 26-29, 2018 under the supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only likely registered voters, n=600, with a Credibility Interval (similar to margin of error) of +/- 4.2 percentage points. The Republican primary subsample consists of only likely Republican primary voters, n=283, with a Credibility Interval of +/- 6 percentage points. The data was weighted by party affiliation, gender, region, and mode based on a registered voter model. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only and an online panel provided by Survey Sampling International (SSI). Full methodology available at http://www.theecps.com. 

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Media contact:
Nikolas Emack-Bazelais
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SOURCE Emerson College