Emerson College Polls: Utah Breaking for Third-party Candidate McMullin
Trump loses ground in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Missouri. Ayotte (R-NH) and Blunt (R-MO) are tied in Senate bids, while Toomey (R-PA) is holding on.
Oct 19, 2016, 02:59 ET
BOSTON, Oct. 19, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Four new polls by Emerson College show Hillary Clinton increasing her favorability and her support in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Missouri while, in Utah, Evan McMullin leads Donald Trump by 4 points, 31% to 27%, with Clinton taking 24%.
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Presidential Ballot
| Clinton |
Trump |
Johnson |
Stein |
McMullin |
Undecided |
MOE |
|
| NH |
44% |
36% |
10% |
6% |
N/A |
5% |
3.2% |
| PA |
45% |
41% |
4% |
4% |
N/A |
6% |
3.4% |
| MO |
39% |
47% |
5% |
2% |
N/A |
7% |
3.9% |
| UT |
24% |
27% |
5% |
- |
31% |
12% |
3.6% |
Utah, which has voted for Republican presidential candidates in every cycle since 1964, is a cause of concern for the Trump campaign. It appears that the divisive GOP primary, which was won by conservative Senator Ted Cruz with 69%, has left voters looking for an alternative to the GOP nominee. For example, 51% of Cruz primary voters are backing McMullin while 29% are voting for Trump. Among Utah's Republican primary voters who supported the second-place finisher, Ohio Governor John Kasich, only 4% say they plan to vote for Trump in November. McMullin draws his strongest support from young people, ages 18-34. He is winning 36% of their vote while Trump and Clinton each get 22%. Trump leads McMullin 35% to 24% among those who are 55 and over.
It appears Clinton is pulling away from the GOP nominee in New Hampshire and is now up 8 points, 44% to 36%, compared to her 5-point lead of 42% to 37% in an early September Emerson poll. Clinton has also seen her favorable rating in the Granite State increase 5 points, from 38% to 43%, while Trump's has increased 2 points, from 34% to 36%.
In Pennsylvania, Clinton has widened her lead slightly, edging Trump 45% to 41%, compared to her 3-point advantage (46% to 43%) in September. In Missouri, Trump has lost ground to Clinton but is still up by 8 points, 47% to 39%. The number of voters who view him unfavorably has increased in the same time frame, from 51% to 56%, while Clinton's unfavorable rating has dropped from 64% to 61%.
Favorable/Unfavorable Ratings
| NH |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
| Clinton |
43% |
54% |
| Trump |
36% |
61% |
| MO |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
| Clinton |
37% |
61% |
| Trump |
43% |
56% |
| PA |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
| Clinton |
42% |
56% |
| Trump |
36% |
61% |
| UT |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
| Clinton |
23% |
74% |
| Trump |
24% |
72% |
In U.S. Senate races, Republican incumbent Kelly Ayotte is tied with New Hampshire Governor Maggie Hassan at 45% apiece after leading Hassan 48% to 46% in September. Ayotte has struggled to distance herself from Trump. GOP Senator Roy Blunt of Missouri is now tied with Democrat Jason Kander at 44% after trailing Kander 42% to 40% in a prior Emerson poll. The Senate race in Pennsylvania has also tightened with the GOP's junior senator, Pat Toomey, holding a 46% to 43% lead over Katie McGinty after leading McGinty by 7 points (46% to 39%) in August.
CALLER ID
The Emerson College New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Missouri and Utah polls were conducted October 17-19, under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. All samples consisted of only likely general election voters, per the following: NH n=900, with a margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3.2 percentage points, PA n=800 with an MOE of +/- 3.4%, UT n=700 with an MOE +/- 3.6%, and MO n=600 with an MOE of +/- 3.9%. Data was weighted by 2012 election results, age, gender, race and party affiliationThe full methodology and results can be found at www.theecps.com.
Media contact:
Spencer Kimball
Email
617-824-3491
SOURCE Emerson College Polling Society