Epidemiology: Stroke - Aging global population leads to more incident cases of stroke
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Epidemiology: Stroke – Aging global population leads to more incident cases of stroke
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Due to an increasing number of aging adults in the world's population, there will be an overall increase in the number of diagnosed incident cases of hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke in adults over the age of 40 in each of the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) over the next 10 years.Gain insight into market potential, including a robust 10-year epidemiology forecast of stroke and atrial fibrillation incidence.Understand the key epidemiologic risk factors associated wtih strokeDatamonitor epidemiologists forecast that in 2010 there were roughly 1.6 million incident cases of ischemic stroke in the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK), and 1.9 million cases are predicted for 2020.In 2010, there were roughly 233,974 diagnosed incident cases of hemorrhagic stroke in the seven major markets (the US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) and about 276,492 incident cases are predicted for 2020.Atrial fibrillation is one of the leading independent risk factors associated with stroke. Datamonitor epidemiologists forecast there were almost 2 million incident cases of atrial fibrillation in the seven major markets in 2010 and approximately 2.3 million incident cases are forecast for 2020.What are the most robust sources for stroke and atrial fibrillation incidence data?How will the patient population change over the next decades in the US, Japan and five major EU markets (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK)?How do changes in population structure and risk factors affect the trend in incident stroke and atrial fibrillation cases?
OVERVIEW•Catalyst
•Summary
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY•Ischemic stroke
•Hemorrhagic stroke
•Atrial fibrillation
DISEASE DEFINITION AND DIAGNOSTIC CRITERIA •Overview
•Disease definition - Disease classification
•Symptoms
•Diagnostic criteria
GLOBAL VARIATION AND HISTORICAL TRENDS•Global variation
•Historical trends
DRIVERS OF STROKE EPIDEMIOLOGY•Atrial fibrillation
•Hypertension
•Diabetes mellitus
•Dyslipidemia
•Race/ethnicity
•Smoking
•Obesity
EPIDEMIOLOGIC FORECASTING OF STROKE •Overview
•US - Sources used
- Methods for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke
- Sources not used
•Japan - Sources used
- Methods
•France - Sources used
- Methods for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke
- Sources not used
•Germany - Sources used
- Methods for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke
- Sources not used
•Italy - Sources used
- Methods
- Sources not used
•Spain - Sources used
- Methods
•UK - Sources used
- Methods for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke
- Sources not used
•Atrial fibrillation - Subpopulations
EPIDEMIOLOGIC RESULTS•Diagnosed incident cases of first-ever ischemic stroke - In 2020, there were will be 1.9 million incident cases of first-ever ischemic stroke in the seven major markets
- There will be positive growth in incident ischemic stroke cases in each of the seven major markets
- Age-standardized results for incident cases of first-ever ischemic stroke
•Subpopulations for incident cases of ischemic stroke - Adults aged 85+ had the largest number of incident ischemic stroke cases in 2010 in each of the seven major markets, except Japan
- Women will have more incident cases of ischemic stroke than men, despite having lower incidence rates
•Diagnosed incident cases of hemorrhagic strokeThe US will have the largest number of diagnosed incident cases of hemorrhagic stroke from 2010–20 - Japan will have the largest average annual growth rate in diagnosed incident cases of hemorrhagic stroke
- Age-standardized results for diagnosed incidence rate of hemorrhagic stroke in the seven major markets
•Subpopulations for incident cases of hemorrhagic stroke - Adults aged 85+ had the largest number of diagnosed incident hemorrhagic stroke cases in 2010
- Women will have more incident cases of hemorrhagic stroke than men across the seven major markets in 2010
•Total incident cases of atrial fibrillation - Current incident cases
- Average annual growth rates of incident cases of atrial fibrillation
- Age-standardized results
•Subpopulations for incident cases of atrial fibrillation - Adults aged 80–84 had the largest number of incident atrial fibrillation cases in 2010
- Men had more incident cases of atrial fibrillation than women in all of the seven major markets in 2010
DISCUSSION•Ischemic stroke - Despite lower incidence rates, women will have more incident cases of ischemic stroke than men
•Hemorrhagic stroke - Men and women will have a similar number of incident hemorrhagic stroke cases in the seven major markets
•Atrial fibrillation - Atrial fibrillation is a major risk factor for stroke and will continue to have a significant impact on health
•Strength of Datamonitor's epidemiologic projections
BIBLIOGRAPHY•Journal articles - Atrial fibrillation
- Stroke
•Websites
APPENDIX A •Epidemiologic forecasting of central neuropathic pain in stroke patients - The US, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK
•Epidemiologic results - Current prevalent cases and future trends
- Subpopulations for prevalent cases of central neuropathic pain in stroke patients
- Women in the US accounted for 19% of all cases of central neuropathic pain in stroke patients in 2011
•Limitations of Datamonitor's epidemiologic projections
APPENDIX B•Module methodology
TABLES•Table: Ischemic stroke classification systems
•Table: Types of hemorrhagic stroke
•Table: Stroke symptoms and their associated part of the brain affected
•Table: Sources of stroke incidence data used in this analysis
•Table: Total number of diagnosed incident cases of first-ever ischemic stroke for the seven major markets, 2010–20
•Table: Total incident cases of first-ever ischemic stroke by age group for the seven major markets, 2010
•Table: Incident cases of first-ever ischemic stroke by gender for the seven major markets, 2010
•Table: Diagnosed incident cases of first-ever hemorrhagic stroke for the seven major markets, 2010–20
•Table: Diagnosed incident cases of hemorrhagic stroke by age group for the seven major markets, 2010
•Table: Diagnosed incident cases of hemorrhagic stroke by gender for the seven major markets, 2010
•Table: Total incident cases of atrial fibrillation in adults aged 50+ in the seven major markets, 2010 –20
•Table: Total incident cases of atrial fibrillation by age group for the seven major markets, 2010
•Table: Total incident cases of atrial fibrillation by gender for the seven major markets, 2010
•Table: Sources of stroke incidence data used in this analysis
•Table: Prevalent cases of central neuropathic pain in stroke patients over the age of 40 in the seven major markets, 2011–21
•Table: Prevalent cases of central neuropathic pain in stroke patients over the age of 40 in each of the seven major markets, by age group, 2011
•Table: Sex-specific prevalent cases of central neuropathic pain in stroke patients over the age of 40 in the seven major markets, 2011
FIGURES•Figure: Trends in diagnosed incident cases of first-ever ischemic stroke for the seven major markets, 2010–20
•Figure: Average annual growth rate of diagnosed incident cases of ischemic stroke in the seven major markets, 2010–20
•Figure: Age-standardized incidence rates of ischemic stroke in men in the seven major markets
•Figure: Age-standardized incidence rates of ischemic stroke in women in the seven major markets
•Figure: Trends in diagnosed incidence of first-ever hemorrhagic stroke in the seven major markets, 2010–20
•Figure: Average annual growth rate of diagnosed incident cases of hemorrhagic stroke in the seven major markets, 2010–20
•Figure: Age-standardized diagnosed incidence rates of hemorrhagic stroke for men in the seven major markets
•Figure: Age-standardized incidence rates of hemorrhagic stroke in women in the seven major markets
•Figure: Trends in total incident cases of atrial fibrillation in adults aged 50+ in the seven major markets, 2010 –20
•Figure: Average annual growth rate in total incident cases of atrial fibrillation in the seven major markets, 2010–20
•Figure: Prevalent cases of central neuropathic pain in stroke patients over the age of 40 in the seven major markets, 2011–21
Companies mentioned
Bonnier AB, Bull, Hutchison 3G UK Limited, Metro AG
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: Epidemiology: Stroke – Aging global population leads to more incident cases of stroke
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