Eurasia Group publishes "Top Risks" predictions for 2026: "US political revolution."

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Jan 05, 2026, 06:00 ET

US political revolution, Top Risk #1, explains how President Trump's attempt to systematically dismantle the checks on his power, capture the machinery of government, and weaponize it against his enemies will transform the US political system as we know it.

NEW YORK, Jan. 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Eurasia Group, the world's leading global research and advisory firm, published its much-anticipated Top Risks 2026 report, offering an analysis of the unprecedented geopolitical challenges looming this year. Key themes examined include: the US political revolution, China winning the global energy battle, US military intervention in the Western Hemisphere, Europe's center failing, AI business models under market pressure, and more.

Eurasia Group publishes “Top Risks” predictions for 2026: “US political revolution.”

Unveiled each January, Top Risks—Eurasia Group's flagship geopolitical report—reviews the ten biggest threats to the trajectories of nations, industries, and institutions. It helps investors, companies, and the public prepare for and respond to opportunities and challenges wherever they invest or do business. The report is co-written by Ian Bremmer, the president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, and Cliff Kupchan, chairman of Eurasia Group.

The #1 risk for 2026 is the US political revolution. Ian Bremmer says: "The United States is itself unwinding its own global order. The world's most powerful country is in the throes of a political revolution. In our lifetimes, we have never witnessed an American president so committed to and so capable of changing the political system and, accordingly, the United States's role in the world."

Other risks in the report include: (#2) Overpowered, (#3) The Donroe Doctrine (#4) Europe under siege, (#5) Russia's second front, (#6) State capitalism with American characteristics, (#7) China's deflation trap, (#8) AI eats its users, (#9) Zombie USMCA, (#10) The water weapon.

Top Risks 2026 also includes several "red herrings"—issues that, despite popular attention, are unlikely to pose significant threats or drive instability in the year to come. About the first of these, 'Tariff Man' at large, Ian and Cliff write: "Donald Trump's trade war will keep escalating, causing more economic havoc in 2026. That's a common fear. We don't buy it. The president's unilateralist instincts are intact. On security, where the United States is much more asymmetrically powerful than the rest of the world, Trump will become less restrained this year. On domestic politics, he's unlikely to moderate, even in the face of pushback. But on the global economic front, Trump's leverage will be more constrained going forward and he knows it."

Other red herrings include US-China Conflict, Deglobalization, Spheres of Influence, and Sell America.

Separate standalone reports with the most important takeaways of Top Risks 2026 for Brazil, Canada, Europe, and Japan are also available. These addendums further illustrate how global risks play out in different parts of the world, with specific implications for governments and businesses.

For members of the media, Ian and Cliff will host an on-the-record press conference today, 5 January, at 10:30 ET / 15:30 GMT. They will discuss these risks and answer your questions. To participate, register here.

GZERO Media, part of the Eurasia Group umbrella, will host a Top Risks Livestream event open to the public today, 5 January, at 12:00 ET / 17:00 GMT. Julia Chatterley will moderate a discussion between Ian Bremmer and a panel of leading geopolitics experts. Watch live here.

Below is a summary of all ten Top Risks for 2026. View the full report here.

#1. US political revolution
What began as tactical norm-breaking has become a system-level transformation: President Donald Trump's attempt to systematically dismantle the checks on his power, capture the machinery of government, and weaponize it against his domestic enemies—who he sees as the principal threat to the United States going forward. As executive impunity expands and the rule of law erodes, the business environment will be put to the test.  With many of the guardrails that held in Trump's first term now buckling, we can no longer say with confidence what kind of political system the United States will be when this revolution is over. Ultimately, the revolution is more likely to fail than succeed, but there will be no going back to the status quo ante. The United States will be the principal source of global risk this year.

#2. Overpowered
The defining technologies of the 21st-century run on electrons: EVs, drones, robots, batteries, AI. All require the "electric stack." China has mastered it, becoming the first "electrostate." The United States is ceding it, cementing the country's status as the world's largest petrostate. In 2026, that divergence will become impossible to ignore. While Washington asks countries to buy 20th-century energy, Beijing offers 21st-century infrastructure at knockoff prices. Emerging markets will increasingly favor China's offering. The cumulative effect is a geopolitical turning point: A growing share of the world's energy, mobility, and industrial systems will be built on Chinese foundations, bringing Beijing commercial benefits and influence that soft power alone could never deliver. The AI race raises the stakes—the US may build the best models, but China may win the market if it can power and deploy AI at scale.

#3. The Donroe Doctrine
President Trump is reviving and reinterpreting the logic of the Monroe Doctrine in an effort to assert US primacy over the Western Hemisphere. The big news this year is Venezuela, where Washington's escalating regime-change campaign has resulted in a headline win for Trump with Nicolas Maduro's ouster and trial in the United States. But taking out Maduro was the easy part; transitioning to a stable, US-friendly government will be more challenging. Across the region, heavy-handed American tactics will risk spurring backlash and unintended consequences.

#4. Europe under siege
France, Germany, and the United Kingdom each enter the year with weak, unpopular governments under siege from the populist right, the populist left, and an American administration actively rooting for their collapse. All three risk paralysis at best and destabilization at worst—and at least one leader could fall. Europe's ability to address its economic malaise, fill the security vacuum left by America's retreat, and sustain support for Ukraine past 2026 will suffer. If Washington overtly interferes in European elections, the postwar alliance framework, already strained, could fracture. 

#5. Russia's second front
The most dangerous front in Europe this year will shift from the trenches in Donetsk to the hybrid war between Russia and NATO as Vladimir Putin seeks to erode European support for Ukraine before economic strain impairs his ability to prosecute the hot war. After years of absorbing punishment, NATO will for the first time push back on Russia's gray-zone operations. The alliance will shoot down drones, hold exercises close to the Russian border, and take tougher offensive cyber action. This combination will result in more frequent and dangerous confrontations in the heart of Europe. As all sides grow more risk-acceptant, the margin for error will narrow.

#6. State capitalism with American characteristics
The most economically interventionist administration since the New Deal will entrench further in 2026. Trump's state capitalism is personal and transactional: Businesses that align with him receive favorable treatment; those that don't risk finding themselves at a disadvantage. The toolkit is expansive—tariffs, equity stakes, revenue-sharing deals, regulatory leverage, investment-for-market-access agreements—often deployed under national security pretexts. The transactional logic extends to foreign governments as well. With midterms approaching and economic discontent rising, Trump will double down on interventionism rather than pull back. Tariffs will face constraints this year, so the administration will rely on other tools, picking winners and losers at a scale not seen in modern US history. The precedent will stick for future administrations.

#7. China's deflation trap
China's deflationary spiral will deepen and Beijing won't do anything to stop it. With the 21st Party Congress looming in 2027, Xi Jinping will prioritize political control and technological supremacy over the consumption stimulus that could break the cycle and prevent a Japanese-style "lost decade." The pain will fall hardest on the young, who are increasingly giving up on the "China Dream." Beijing will keep trying to export its way out, flooding global markets—a fundamentally beggar-thy-neighbor approach that most trading partners may absorb this year but won't tolerate forever.

#8. AI eats its users
AI is a revolutionary technology, but it can't yet live up to investor expectations. Under growing pressure to justify valuations and unconstrained by guardrails, a number of leading AI companies will adopt extractive business models that threaten social and political stability—like social media, but worse. Social media captured attention; AI programs behavior, shapes thoughts, and mediates reality. The near-term threat is not superhuman machines but the decline of thinking, feeling, and social humans.

#9. Zombie USMCA
North American trade will be stuck in limbo this year. The USMCA won't be extended, updated, or killed—it will stagger on as a zombie, keeping businesses and governments guessing. Trump doesn't want a new trilateral deal; the zombie agreement lets him keep squeezing Mexico and Canada for bilateral concessions. Tariff exemptions for compliant goods will hold, but for sectors the United States wants to reshore—autos, steel, aluminum—the days of free and predictable North American trade are over.

#10. The water weapon
Water is already one of the most contested shared resources on the planet, but it is increasingly becoming a loaded weapon. Half of humanity already lives under water stress, and there's no architecture to manage it. In 2026, the governance vacuum will deepen—the Indus Waters Treaty suspended, Ethiopia's Nile dam operational with no binding agreement, China building the world's largest dam with no downstream treaty. In Africa, extremists exploit ungoverned water scarcity to recruit and control populations. In South Asia, nuclear-armed rivals are turning rivers into leverage. No single crisis may erupt this year. But the weapons are loaded, the guardrails are off, and when the next shock comes, water will make it worse.

About Eurasia Group and GZERO Media

Eurasia Group is the world's leading global research and advisory firm. We help clients understand, anticipate, and respond to instability and opportunities everywhere they do business.

Together with GZERO Media—the go-to source for insight into geopolitics—and our full-fledged events team, the Eurasia Group umbrella provides a unique and comprehensive set of tools to better understand the world.

Headquartered in New York, we have offices in Washington DC, San Francisco, London, Tokyo, Singapore, Mexico City, São Paulo, and Brasilia, as well as on-the-ground experts in more than a hundred countries in every region of the world.

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SOURCE Eurasia Group