VADUZ, Liechtenstein, July 23, 2013 /PRNewswire/ --
Egypt's political upheaval could lead to the mass migration of refugees across the 26 European countries signed up to the Schengen agreement, which have no borders or passport controls between them.
Yet to date there has been little, if any, public discussion of possible scenarios, economically, administratively or militarily, writes economics expert Bernard Siman in World Review.
'This is potentially a huge scale multi-dimensional problem,' he says. 'Egypt's 82.5 million population is separated from the Schengen area's most eastern point of entry at Cyprus by 500 kilometers of Mediterranean Sea.'
'Any mass population movement fleeing Egypt's violence, and in extremis civil war, will potentially be a game-changer at a time of serious and combined financial and economic crisis across Europe,' he adds.
It is hard to say whether any naval crisis-planning exists to deal with such a sudden mass influx of Egyptian boat-people in the eastern Mediterranean.
'If such a mass influx of Egyptian refugees were to occur, it would be likely to stretch the already limited naval resources unless some form of coordinated naval action were to take place along the lines of the existing international cooperation against piracy along the Somali coast,' says Mr Siman.
'Egypt is descending into prolonged instability at best and civil war at worst. Both are likely to lead to increased migration through normal individual arrangements or mass exits.'
About the author
World Review author Bernard Siman is an independent investment and banking professional with a strong bias towards strategic risk analysis and advice. He actively advises investors and insurance operators from the Gulf, Japan and Europe on their global investment and business strategies, and leads on originating and structuring specific investment.
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