EY-Parthenon forecasts resilient 8% growth in US dealmaking in 2026 despite geopolitical and economic headwinds

• Corporate M&A leads the way with 11% projected deal volume growth in 2026 as CEOs prioritize large strategic transactions to accelerate transformation.
• Private equity outlook shifts toward selective dealmaking amid accelerating AI and geopolitical disruption, resulting in flat US deal volume.

NEW YORK, June 2, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- EY-Parthenon practice today released its 2026 M&A outlook, forecasting an 8% increase in US deal volume for transactions of more than $100 million, as companies pursue AI-ready capabilities and seek to strengthen market positioning. The projection is based on the EY-Parthenon Deal Barometer, a proprietary framework that analyzes real-time US transaction data and macroeconomic modeling.

This heightened activity is occurring against a backdrop of evolving corporate strategies. According to the recent EY-Parthenon Growth Survey, 73% of leaders say that geopolitical and economic crosscurrents, including changes in interest rates, trade policy, inflation and supply chain disruption, have impacted their growth strategies over the past year. In response, deal activity is increasingly skewed toward large strategic transactions that reinforce resilience. Deal value growth is once again expected to significantly outpace deal volume growth in 2026.

"While external tensions and trade frictions are adding complexity to dealmaking, CEOs continue to view M&A as a core driver of transformation in a time of accelerating AI adoption," says Mitch Berlin, EY Americas Vice Chair, EY-Parthenon. "Disruption is not a reason to pause — it is a catalyst to act, as leading executives use deals to build technology advantage, protect margins and secure critical capabilities in AI, talent, products and markets to fundamentally rewire their enterprises and outperform peers."

A tale of two markets: corporate M&A vs. private equity
The EY-Parthenon Deal Barometer projects that corporate M&A deal volume will rise 11% in 2026, while private equity (PE) deal volume is expected to remain flat. This divergence follows the first quarter of 2026, where corporate M&A deal volume surged 22% compared with the same period in 2025, while PE deal volume fell 11% in the same time frame.

Corporate M&A activity driven by strategic resilience
Baseline corporate M&A deal volume is projected to finish the year up 11%, with the potential to reach as high as 13% in an optimistic economic scenario or soften to 5% under a pessimistic scenario.

This momentum is bolstered by a favorable regulatory backdrop and strong corporate profits providing greater confidence in near-term action. To capitalize on this opportunity, the latest EY-Parthenon CEO Outlook finds that US CEOs are heavily focused on reshaping the entire enterprise, with 65% pursuing M&A to accelerate access to technology, talent and operating capabilities and 46% planning divestments to release capital, reduce complexity and sharpen strategic focus.

PE deals follow a selective, conviction-driven approach
In contrast, baseline PE deal volume is expected to remain flat compared with 2025, with the potential to rebound by 10% in an optimistic scenario or contract by 9% in a pessimistic scenario.

Following an 11% year-over-year drop in PE deal volume in the first quarter of 2026, PE general partners are adopting a more measured approach with greater selectivity amid accelerating AI disruption and rising geopolitical tensions. As higher-for-longer rate expectations remain firm, PE leaders are emphasizing underwriting discipline and flexibility to navigate evolving valuations.

"Private equity investors are being much more careful about where they put their money right now," says Berlin. "When we think about private equity activity for the remainder of the year, we expect resilience to be driven by a record-breaking rotation into asset-heavy sectors, such as energy and infrastructure, where tangible cash flows offer a vital hedge in a higher-for-longer rate environment."

For more information, visit EY-Parthenon Transactions. 

About the EY-Parthenon Deal Barometer
The Deal Barometer is a proprietary forecasting tool led by Gregory Daco, EY-Parthenon Chief Economist, and the Macroeconomics team that integrates the EY US macroeconomic outlook with real-time transaction data. It projects future trends in corporate M&A and private equity activity for US deals of more than $100 million, providing executives with an objective outlook for deal volume in the coming quarters.

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SOURCE EY