Foodservice Breakfast Trends in the U.S., 2nd Edition

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Aug 18, 2014, 05:45 ET

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Foodservice Breakfast Trends in the U.S., 2nd Edition

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The breakfast daypart continues to help drive sales at full-service restaurants and limited-service eating places. In Foodservice Breakfast Trends in the U.S., 2nd Edition, Packaged Facts estimates restaurant breakfast sales will reach $47.4 billion in 2013, up 5% from 2012. We forecast sales to rise by 5.6% in 2014 and 5.1% in 2015.

At limited-service restaurants, growth is being driven by player entrants; menu item innovation hitting healthfulness, indulgence, and quality notes; and coffee, tea and juice platform innovation. On the heels of rising guest usage during 2011-2013, brands such as Dunkin Donuts, Starbucks, Panera Bread, and Chik-fil-A are riding the trend. Between 2009-2013 breakfast usage growth has been driven by adults age 65 and older, Asian consumers, and the part-time employed. Leveraging morning visits among coffee drinkers, the segment is also benefiting from workforce expansion and a growing pool of employed consumers.

Meanwhile, full-service breakfast usage trends suggest that a rebound is taking place. Breakfast daypart usage penetration has risen 26% from 2009 to 2013, a higher rate of growth than shown for other dayparts. While many family restaurant chains continue to face guest traffic challenges, brand-specific trends hold promise. And with more and more family restaurants experimenting with take out and portable menu options, the segment is poised to better compete with the limited-service competition.

Foodservice Breakfast Trends in the U.S., 2nd Edition can assist industry participants in understanding industry and consumer trends shaping this increasingly competitive environment, focusing on limited-service and family restaurant chains.

Key content includes:

Trended guest traffic analysis for the foodservice breakfast daypart, including 2005-2013 limited-service and full-service restaurant usage trends; 2013 restaurant breakfast usage, segmented into eight foodservice channels; 2013 restaurant guest traffic volume and share estimates, by daypart; and 2013 foodservice breakfast traffic segmented by foodservice channel and split into weekday versus weekend and into on-premises, in-store pick up and drive thru.Assessment of breakfast restaurant menu trends over time, focusing on menu item penetration by restaurant segment, including analysis of menu terms relating to breakfast entrees, top proteins, and beverages. Menu item trend data is provided courtesy of Datassential, a leading food research company. Analysis is supported by a wealth of examples.

Via proprietary consumer survey analysis, assessment of the degree to which consumers would be motivated to eat breakfast outside of their homes more often.

A market size and forecast for the U.S. restaurant breakfast daypart, segmented by limited-service eating places and full-service restaurants. We also trend 2007-2012 consumer restaurant expenditures, exploring the relationship between household growth and restaurant spending by demographic and by limited-service and full-service segment, as well as daypart and breakfast spending by demographic.

The report also provides analysis of leading restaurant brands that focus on the breakfast daypart, spanning the snack and beverage, quick-service, fast casual and family restaurant segments. For each brand, we assess competitive differentiation; growth strategy; menu development and trending; consumer food lifestyle consumer segmentation analysis; guest traffic trending, by demographic; and sales performance and outlook. Analysis is tailored narrowly to the breakfast daypart:Snack and beverage restaurants: Dunkin' Donuts, Jamba Juice, Starbucks and Tim HortonsQuick-service restaurants: Burger King, Chick-fil-A, McDonald'sFast casual restaurants: Einstein Noah Restaurant Group and Panera BreadFamily restaurants: Bob Evans Restaurants, Denny's and IHOPExecutive SummaryReport ScopeRestaurant breakfast restaurant sales analysisMarket size and forecast2007-2012 consumer restaurant expenditure trends: placing breakfast within contextConsumer restaurant daypart expenditure trendsConsumer restaurant breakfast expenditure trendsBreakfast daypart guest traffic trendsBreakfast helps drive 2005-2013 restaurant usage trends2013 restaurant breakfast usage: eight-channel foodservice analysisRestaurant guest traffic volume and share analysis, by daypartWeekday versus weekend foodservice breakfast trafficOn-premises versus off-premises foodservice breakfast trafficRestaurant breakfast menu trendsFoodservice breakfast: authenticity claimsFoodservice breakfast: breakfast sandwich proteinsCoffee trendsTea trendsJuice trendsBeyond restaurantsEating breakfast away from home: motivatorsLower cost and healthier optionsRestaurant breakfast brand analysis: snack & beverage restaurantsRestaurant breakfast brand analysis: quick-service restaurantsRestaurant breakfast brand analysis: fast casual restaurantsRestaurant breakfast brand analysis: family restaurantsChapter 1: Share of Stomach: Restaurant Breakfast Sales AnalysisSummary analysisMarket size and forecast2007-2012 consumer restaurant expenditure trends: placing breakfast within contextConsumer restaurant daypart expenditure trendsConsumer restaurant breakfast expenditure trendsMarket size and forecastGraph 1-1: Limited-Service Eating Places & Full-Service Restaurant Breakfast Sales, 2007-2015Graph 1-2: Limited-Service Eating Places & Full-Service Restaurant Breakfast: Percent Annual Sales Change, 2008-2015Limited-service sales al almost double those at full-service restaurantsGraph 1-3: Limited-Service Eating Places & Full-Service Restaurant Share of Total Breakfast Sales, 2007-2015Breakfast daypart share by segmentGraph 1-4: Limited-Service Eating Places & Full-Service Restaurant Share of Segment Breakfast Sales, 2007-2015Consumer restaurant spending trends by daypartPlacing restaurant breakfast in contextHousehold incomes get a boostFood away from home spending accelerates, but lags income growthTable 1-1: Per Capita Spend: Food, Food at Home & Away From Home, Limited- & Full-ServiceRestaurants, 2007 vs. 20122012 per capita restaurant spending reaches 2008 levelsTable 1-2: Per Capita Consumer Restaurant Expenditures, by Daypart, 2007-2012Restaurant daypart spending trends, by HH incomeTable 1-3: Per Capita Restaurant Spending, by Daypart, HH Income, 2007 vs. 2012Household restaurant expenditures, by demographicTable 1-4: Per Household Spending on Limited-Service and Full-Service Breakfast/Brunch, by Demographic, 2012Total limited-service vs. full-service restaurant breakfast expenditures, by demographicTable 1-5: Total Consumer Spending on Limited-Service and Full-Service Breakfast/Brunch, by Demographic, 20122007-2012 household growth and restaurant spending trendsFood spending outstrips household and income growthBut restaurant spending lags food at home spending growthSpending trends influenced by household formation trends, narrowing of middle classMore higher-income households, but per capita restaurant spending stagnatesTable 1-6: Per Capita Spending on Food, Food at Home vs. Away From Home, & Limited-Service vs.Full-ServiceRestaurants, by HH Income, 2007 vs. 2012Strong black, Asian and Hispanic household growthBlack and Asian consumers grow restaurant spend; declines noted for HispanicsDistinctions by restaurant segmentTable 1-7: Per Capita Spending on Food, Food at Home vs. Away From Home, & Limited-Service vs.Full-Service Restaurants, by Race/Ethnicity, 2007 vs. 2012Restaurant daypart spend trendsHH income analysisTable 1-8: Per Capita Restaurant Daypart Spending, by HH Income, 2007 vs. 2012Race/ethnicity analysisTable 1-9: Per Capita Restaurant Daypart Spending, Race/Ethnicity, 2007 vs. 2012Limited-service and full-service segment breakfast spend trendsHH income analysisTable 1-10: Per Capita Spending on Limited-Service and Full-Service Breakfast/Brunch, by HH Income, 2007 vs. 2012Race/ethnicity analysisTable 1-11: Per Capita Spending on Limited-Service and Full-Service Breakfast/Brunch, by Race/Ethnicity, 2007 vs. 2012Chapter 2: Breakfast Daypart Guest Traffic TrendsSummary analysisBreakfast helps drive 2005-2013 restaurant usage trends2013 restaurant breakfast usage: eight-channel foodservice analysisRestaurant guest traffic volume and share analysis, by daypartWeekday versus weekend foodservice breakfast trafficOn-premises versus off-premises foodservice breakfast traffic2005-2013 restaurant breakfast usage trends2009-2013 overall restaurant breakfast usage penetration growth outstrips other daypartsGraph 2-1: Combined Family & Fast Food Restaurant Usage, by Daypart, 2005-20132005-2013 trends suggests increasing importance of limited-service restaurant breakfastGraph 2-2: Limited-Service Restaurant Usage, by Daypart, 2005-20132005-2013 limited-service restaurant usage growth and usage share trends, by demographicTable 2-1: Limited-Service Restaurant Usage/Usage Share, by Demographic, 2005-2013, 2005-2009 & 2009-20132009-2013 full-service restaurant breakfast trends leading segment out of recessionGraph 2-3: Full-Service Restaurant Usage, by Daypart, 2005-20132005-2013 full-service restaurant usage growth and usage share trends, by demographicTable 2-2: Full-Service Restaurant Usage/Usage Share, by Demographic, 2005-2013, 2005-2009 & 2009-2013Current restaurant breakfast usageFoodservice breakfast channel analysis: eight-segment overviewFoodservice breakfast channel analysis, by ageTable 2-3: Breakfast Usage/Usage Share, by Restaurant & Food Retail Channel, & Cafeteria, by Age, 2013Foodservice breakfast channel analysis, by HH incomeTable 2-4: Breakfast Usage/Usage Share, by Foodservice Channel, & Cafeteria, by HH Income, 2013Foodservice breakfast channel analysis, by employment statusTable 2-5: Breakfast Usage/Usage Share, by Foodservice Channel, & Cafeteria, by Employment Status, 2013Foodservice segment analysis, by urban, suburban, rural work/residence locationTable 2-6: Breakfast Usage/Usage Share, by Foodservice Channel, by Place of Work & Residence, 2013Guest traffic volume and share analysisQSR guest traffic volume: daypart and chain/independent statusBreakfast daypart generates more than 20% of trafficGraph 2-4: Quick-Service Restaurant Guest Traffic Share, by Daypart and Chain/Independent Status, 2013Guest traffic volume: daypart and chain/independent status, by demographicTable 2-7: Quick-Service Restaurant Guest Traffic Volume Comparisons by Daypart & Chain Status, by Demographic, 2013Snack & beverage guest traffic volume: daypart and chain/independent statusGraph 2-5: Snack and Beverage Guest Traffic Share, by Daypart and Chain/Independent Status, 2013Family restaurant guest traffic volume: daypart and chain/independent statusGraph 2-6: Family Restaurant Guest Traffic Share, by Daypart and Chain/Independent Status, 2013Guest traffic volume: daypart and chain/independent status, by demographicTable 2-8: Family Restaurant Guest Traffic Volume Comparisons by Daypart and Chain Status, by Demographic, 2013Casual restaurant guest traffic volume: daypart and chain/independent statusGraph 2-7: Casual Restaurant Guest Traffic Share, by Daypart and Chain/Independent Status, 2013Weekday vs. weekend visits; eaten on-premises vs. off-premisesWeekdays account for 70% of foodservice breakfast trafficDifferences by foodservice channel/segmentSignificant off-premises foodservice breakfast shareDrive-thru service plays key QSR roleLow family restaurant in-store pickup share portends incremental growth opportunityTable 2-9: Weekday vs. Weekend Breakfast & On-Premises vs. Takeout & Drive-Thru Breakfast, By Type of Chain, Independent Restaurant, and Convenience Store, 2013Weekday vs. weekend visits: demographic analysisTable 2-10: Weekday vs. Weekend Breakfast: QSR Chains & Family/Buffet Chains, by Demographic, 2013Eaten on-premises vs. off-premises: demographic analysisTable 2-11: On-Premises vs. Takeout & Drive-Thru Breakfast: QSR Chains & Family/Buffet Chains, by Demographic, 2013Chapter 3: Breakfast Menu Item Ordering AnalysisTop breakfast menu items orderedFood menu itemsBeverage menu itemsDemographic analysisTable 3-1: Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Breakfast Visit, 2013Table 3-2: Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Breakfast Visit, by Gender, 2013Table 3-3: Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Breakfast Visit, by HH Income, 2013Table 3-4: Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Breakfast Visit, by Region, 2013Table 3-5: Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Breakfast Visit, by Foodservice Outlet Type, 2013Table 3-6: Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Breakfast Visit, Purchase/Eaten, 2013Chapter 4: Breakfast Menu TrendsSummary analysisFoodservice breakfast: authenticity claimsFoodservice breakfast: breakfast sandwich proteinsCoffee trendsTea trendsJuice trendsBeyond restaurantsFoodservice breakfast: authenticity claimsMore family restaurants using the term originalTable 4-1: Fresh & Authentic Menu Terms: Penetration & Incidence, Family/Midscale Restaurants, 2009 vs. 2013On the breakfast menuFoodservice breakfast: breakfast sandwich proteinsBacon and sausage still rule the roostTable 4-2: Breakfast Sandwich Protein Menu Penetration and Growth, by Restaurant Segment, 2009 vs. 2013Pork and turkey provide alternativesFoodservice breakfast beveragesWhat's foodservice breakfast without a beverage?Table 4-3: Beverage Items Ordered During Last Breakfast Visit, by Foodservice Outlet Type, 2013Tea, coffee and juice breakfast opportunityTable 4-4: Nonalcoholic Beverage Penetration & Menu Item Share: Quick-Service & Family Restaurant Chains, 2013Coffee chugs alongBreakfast daypart overwhelming drives coffee usageTable 4-5: Coffee Drinking by Daypart, 2011Conversion opportunityTable 4-6: Daily Coffee Drinkers: Overall vs. Foodservice Breakfast, 2013Workday relevanceBefore work or during work?For restaurants, on-the-go importanceTable 4-7: Coffee Procurement in Past 7 Days, by Method/Location, 2011Coffee launchesTea flexing more breakfast muscleRestaurant conversion opportunityTable 4-8: Teas Purchased/Ordered in Last 12 months, 2011Tea flavors & variety provide innovation pipelineTea flavor/varieties ordered from restaurantsRoom for additional variety at restaurantsTable 4-9: Teas Ordered from Restaurants in Last 12 months, by Flavor/Variety, 2011Caffeine is not just a coffee thingTable 4-10: Brewed Tea, Iced Tea and Coffee and Coffee Drink Caffeine Levels, by TypeTea launchesJuice: ready for reinvention?Table 4-11: Branded Orange Juice, Selected Restaurant Brands, 2013A juice renaissance?Jamba Juice and Starbucks lead the wayTable 4-12: Jamba Juice: Fresh Squeezed Juices, New Freshly Squeezed Juice Blends & Juice Blends, 2013Can family restaurant chains follow?Convenience store beverage innovationWawa expands coffee and tea varietiesTable 4-13: Wawa New Beverage Items, 2013Chapter 5: Eating Breakfast Away from Home: MotivatorsAnalysisLower cost and healthier optionsTable 5-1: Eating Breakfast Away from Home Motivators, 2013Chapter 6: Brand Analysis: Snack & Beverage RestaurantsDunkin' DonutsCompetitive differentiation and growth strategyOn the menuGraph 6-1: Dunkin' Donuts Entrée, Side, Dessert, Beverage & Appetizer Menu Share, 2013Table 6-1: Dunkin' Donuts Food and Beverage Menu Share, by Menu Item Type, 2013Menu expansionBreakfast LTOsBreakfast strategy: Balancing indulgence and healthBreakfast guest purchases skew heavily to donuts and coffeeTable 6-2: Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Dunkin' Donuts Breakfast Visit, 2013Guest traffic trend analysisGraph 6-2: Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Dunkin' Donuts, 2011-2013Sales performance and outlook20122013Table 6-3: Dunkin' Donuts Same-Store Sales and Systemwide Sales Trends, 2008-2013Jamba JuiceCompetitive differentiation and growth strategyKids in focusOn the menuGraph 6-3: Jamba Juice Entrée, Side, Dessert, Beverage & Appetizer Menu Share, 2013Table 6-4: Jamba Juice Food and Beverage Menu Share, by Menu Item Type, 2013Breakfast = 20% of salesGrowth strategy: Innovation of retail format can capture on-the-go breakfast consumerBreakfast strategy: Healthy mealsFresh juice platform offers breakfast opportunityGuest traffic trend analysisGraph 6-4: Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Jamba Juice, 2011-2013Sales performance and outlookTable 6-5: Jamba Juice Same-Store Sales & Location Trends, 2010-2012StarbucksCompetitive differentiation and growth strategyThe juice connectionMenu trends: Addressing the food challengeBreakfast strategy: Focus on "other" breakfast beverage opportunitiesGraph 6-5: Starbucks Entrée, Side, Dessert, Beverage & Appetizer Menu Share, 2013Table 6-6: Starbucks Food and Beverage Menu Share, by Menu Item Type, 2013Breakfast guest purchases skew heavily to donuts and coffeeTable 6-7: Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Starbucks Breakfast Visit, 2013Guest traffic trend analysisGraph 6-6: Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Starbucks, 2011-2013Sales performance and outlook20122013OutlookTable 6-8: Starbucks Revenue, Same-Store Sales, Sales Mix, & Location Trends, 2008-2012Tim HortonsCompetitive differentiation and growth strategyBreakfast strategy: Brand recognition and broader menuGraph 6-6: Tim Hortons Entrée, Side, Dessert, Beverage & Appetizer Menu Share, 2013Table 6-9: Tim Hortons Food and Beverage Menu Share, by Menu Item Type, 2013Breakfast LTOsSales performanceChapter 7: Brand Analysis: Quick-Service RestaurantsBurger KingCompetitive differentiation and growth strategyBreakfast strategy: Expand coffee platformGraph 7-1: Burger King Entrée, Side, Dessert, Beverage & Appetizer Menu Share, 2013Table 7-1: Burger King Food and Beverage Menu Share, by Menu Item Type, 2013Breakfast LTOsGuest traffic trend analysisGraph 7-2: Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Burger King, 2011-2013Sales performance and outlookTable 7-2: Burger King Sales Performance, 2010-2013Chick-fil-ACompetitive differentiation and growth strategyReligious affiliationBreakfast strategy: Highlight signature chicken in breakfast formGraph 7-3: Chick-fil-A Entrée, Side, Dessert, Beverage & Appetizer Menu Share, 2013Table 7-3: Chick-fil-A Food and Beverage Menu Share, by Menu Item Type, 2013Guest traffic trend analysisGraph 7-4: Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: Chick-fil-A, 2011-2013Sales performanceMcDonald'sCompetitive differentiation and growth strategyMcCafé platformGrowth strategy: Modernize the menu and consumer experienceBreakfast strategy: A variety of hot breakfast sandwichesGraph 7-5: McDonald's Entrée, Side, Dessert, Beverage & Appetizer Menu Share, 2013Table 7-4: McDonald's Food and Beverage Menu Share, by Menu Item Type, 2013Table 7-5: Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last McDonald's Breakfast Visit, 2013The BFY breakfastGuest traffic analysisGraph 7-6: Guest Traffic Frequency Analysis: McDonald's, 2011-2013Sales performance and outlookTable 7-6: McDonald's Global Company-Operated & Franchise Restaurant Count, Sales & Revenue, 2008-2013Chapter 8: Restaurant Breakfast Brand Analysis: Fast Casual RestaurantsCompetitive differentiation and growth strategyOn the menuBreakfast is two-thirds of the pieTable 8-1: Top 10 Einstein Bros. Beverage Menu Items, by % of Dishes Featuring, 2013Healthfulness drives menu innovationTable 8-2: Einstein Bros. Selected Breakfast Bundles and Breakfast LTOs, 2013Guest traffic analysisTable 8-3: Einstein Bros.: Consumer Usage Penetration and Usage Share, by Demographic, 2013Sales performanceSales growth at the expense of guest traffic declinesTable 8-4: Einstein Noah Restaurant Group Restaurant Sales, Average Unit Volume & Units by Ownership Type, Same-Store Sales; and (2012) Sales & Restaurants by Brand, 2010-2012Panera BreadCompetitive differentiation and growth strategyOn the menuTable 8-5: Top 10 Panera Bread Food Menu Items, by % of Dishes Featuring, 2013Table 8-6: Top 10 Panera Bread Beverage Menu Items, by % of Dishes Featuring, 2013Menu innovationOn the "hidden menu"Table 8-7: Panera Bread Selected "Hidden" Breakfast Items and Breakfast LTOs, 2012-2013Guest traffic trend analysisEnviable trendingTable 8-8: Panera Bread: Consumer Usage Penetration and Usage Share, by Demographic, 2011 vs. 2013Variety on a Budget and True Foodies turn the doors with greatest frequencyGraph 8-9: Panera Bread Usage Frequency Food Segmentation Analysis, 2013Sales performanceA strong, consistent growth storyTable 8-10: Panera Bread Restaurant Sales, Same-Store Sales w/ Components & Units, 2008-2012Chapter 9: Restaurant Breakfast Brand Analysis: Family RestaurantsBob EvansCompetitive differentiation and growth strategyBreakfast a large slice of the pieBridging weekdays and weekendsTable 9-1: Bob Evans Restaurants Sales by Daypart & Time of Week, Guest Check by Daypart, 2010 vs. 2013Growth strategy: Menu innovationBeverage innovationGraph 9-1: Bob Evans Restaurants Menu Item Share, 2013Table 9-2: Top 10 Bob Evans Menu Item Types, by % of Dishes Featuring, 2013Value messaging and new itemsBundling successAnd a health twistGrowth strategy: Farm Fresh Refresh remodelBuilding off-premise opportunityGuest traffic trend analysisTable 9-3: Bob Evans Restaurants: Consumer Usage Penetration and Usage Share, by Demographic, 2009 vs. 2013Sales performanceLonger-term trends suggest brand is not over the humpBut positive near-term trends bode wellTable 9-4: Bob Evans Restaurants Net Sales, Same-Store Sales, Units & Menu Pricing, 2009-2013Denny'sCompetitive differentiation and growth strategyMenu innovationLTO evolutionTable 9-5: Denny's Selected New Breakfast Items and Breakfast LTOs, 2012-2013Balanced by $2 $4 $6 $8 Value MenuTable 9-6: Denny's $2 $4 $6 $8 Value Menu: Breakfast Meals: 2013Higher-quality coffeeConsumers choose starch-based entrees, giving egg-centric menu items a run for their moneyTable 9-7: Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last Denny's Breakfast Visit, 2013Guest traffic trend analysisOur analysis suggests silver lining in Denny's guest count declinesMillennials, Baby Boomers and HispanicsTable 9-8: Denny's: Consumer Usage Penetration and Usage Share, by Demographic, 2009 vs. 2013Sales performanceLonger-term trends suggest guest count challengesNear-term trends mixedTable 9-9: Denny's Restaurant Sales, Same-Store Sales, Guest Check & Count, 2009-2013IHOPMenu development and innovationGraph 9-2: IHOP Menu Item Share, 2013Breakfast menu items are front and centerA minority of other itemsTable 9-10: Top 10 IHOP Menu Item Types, by % of Dishes Featuring, 2013Maintaining value propositionGriddle Melts level playing fieldLTOs keep Simple & Fit menu freshTable 9-11: IHOP Selected New Items and LTOs, 2012-2013Menu redesignGuest item ordering & traffic trend analysisGuests more likely to order egg-based entrees than starch-based entreesTable 9-12: Food and Beverage Items Ordered During Last IHOP Breakfast Visit, 2013Guest traffic trend analysisSlightly lower usage penetration outweighed by positive demographic trendsTable 9-13: IHOP Restaurants: Consumer Usage Penetration and Usage Share, by Demographic, 2009 vs. 2013Sales performanceTable 9-14: IHOP Restaurant Sales, Same-Store Sales & Units, by Restaurant Ownership Class, 2010-2012AppendixMethodologyConsumer survey methodologyMarket size and forecastConsumer segmentation groupsFood LifestyleTerms and definitionsRestaurant segmentationLimited-service restaurant definitionsFull-service restaurant definitionsOther definitions

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