Future of Gaseous Fuel Developments in the Transportation Market - Towards 2030

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Future of Gaseous Fuel Developments in the Transportation Market - Towards 2030
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Gasoline Prices will Boost the Growth of Gaseous Fuel Vehicles

This research service provides a strategic outlook and overview of the European energy market. It discusses and analyses the gaseous fuel market. The study further examines the power generation mix and trends at a global level, and filters them down to Europe. It discusses the automotive implications in the gaseous fuel market, with focus on the global power train mix.

Executive Summary—Key Findings and Future Outlook

OEMs perceive LPG and natural gas as bridged between conventional fossil fuels and fuel cell vehicles, as well as a tool to meet the EU's CO2 targets.

Market Status
Current: The energy mix in Europe mainly consists of coal, with per cent, closely followed by gas and nuclear, with per cent and per cent, respectively.
Future: By 2020, gas is expected to have the maximum share in the energy mix— per cent, to be closely followed by wind, per cent, and coal, per cent.

Competition
Current: Fiat is leading the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and compressed natural gas (CNG) market with per cent and per cent, respectively, followed by General Motors, PSA and Ford.
Future: The market share of LPG/CNG vehicles is expected to reach close to per cent by 2020, leading to a CNG/LPG system market revenue of € million (including aftermarket).

Solutions
Current: The market is dominated by diesel and gasoline vehicles. The on-going trend focuses on the hybridization of powertrains and the development of alternative fuel technologies.
Future: Both LPG and CNG are expected to witness European Union (EU) support until 2020 and further as a tool to decrease GHG emissions. Integrating CNG models into the product portfolio would help OEMs achieve the EU carbon dioxide (CO2) emission norms ( g/km by 2015 and g/km by 2020).

Barriers
Current: Residential charging is popular among plugin hybrids and electric vehicles, as the necessary infrastructure is available for overnight charging.
Future: On-going projects are focusing on establishing biomethane and CNG infrastructure and expected to eliminate hostile standards, policies and regulations.

Executive Summary—Key Findings

Increasing push for energy independence is expected to motivate EU states to increase investments in unconventional gas resources, especially in Central and Eastern Europe.

Coal
Power generation is expected to reach its peak by 2015. After 2015, coal will probably continue to significantly decrease its share in the overall energy mix.

Oil
Since 2011, the overall share of oil has continued to decrease and is likely to continue to do so throughout the forecast period at a CAGR of per cent until 2030.

Gas
Gas will probably continue to increase its share in the overall mix. Although decreasing in demand, installed capacity is increasing. Its lower emission impact, price advantages and alternative ways of production make gas an important source of energy.

Nuclear
Power generation based on nuclear energy is at a peak in Europe but is expected to decrease gradually in the next years.

Renewables
All sources of economically viable renewable energy resources are expected to increase strongly until 2020, with wind leading the growth. Growth will slow down between 2020 and 2030.

Executive Summary—Overview of New Potential Gaseous Sources

Both LPG and CNG are expected to witness EU support until 2020 and help to decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Gaseous Fuel Developments in the Transportation Market: Drivers and Restraints for Different Gases, Europe, 2012

Shale Gas
Drivers
• Opportunity to develop domestic energy market and reduce dependency on imports.
• Easy integration in existing infrastructure.
Restraints
• Ecological concerns related to air and water quality.
• Focus on power generation is likely to affect transportation in the long term (after 2020).

Hydrogen Fuel
Drivers
• Introduction of hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles are expected to focus on commercial vehicles.
Restraints
• The number of hydrogen filling stations being less than makes the infrastructure weak.

Synthesis Gas
Drivers
• On-going bio-SNG projects focus on synthesis gas.
• Development of infrastructure to store/utilise/access renewable power.
Restraints
• The technology is expensive and has not yet reached commercialization.

Biogas
Drivers
• In line with 'green' image.
• Focus on power generation.
Restraints
• Variety of installations and processes face challenges in the execution of regulations.

Gas to Liquid
Drivers
• Simple integration in existing infrastructure.
Restraints
• Large investments in G2L plants required.

Executive Summary—Gas Availability in the Automotive Industry

Government support towards alternative fuels is guaranteed for the long term, as it is driven by environmental concerns and emphasises the reduction of GHG.

Gaseous Fuel Developments in the Transportation Market: Impact on the Automotive Industry, Europe, 2012–2020

Overall Impact: Demand (Customers)
Key Factors:
• Incentives and Subsidies: Spain, France, the UK, Sweden, Belgium and the Netherlands have purchase and tax incentives for alternative fuel vehicles.
• Fuel Prices (CNG vs gasoline): There are a significant savings on the usage of CNG, as gasoline prices are continuously rising.
• Refuelling Infrastructure: Projects such as GasHighway and the Trans-European Core Network aim to establish an interconnected network of filling stations by 2020.
• Consumer Eco Awareness: Increasing awareness of environmental concerns could lead to higher adoption of natural gas vehicles.

Overall Impact: Supply (OEMs and Suppliers)
Key Factors:
• Supply from Unconventional Sources: Exploration of unconventional gases such as shale gas.
• Technological Advancement: Introduction of advanced technologies such as extended-range electric vehicles has increased adoption.
• Increasing Competition among OEMs: OEMs are focusing on launching new models with advanced features to gain competitive advantage.
• Oil/Gas Price Volatility: Heavy dependency on imports and continuously rising prices of oil.

Key Questions This Study Will Answer

• What is the future scenario of the global energy market?
• What is the future scenario of the European energy market?
• How would an increased availability of gaseous fuels affect the energy market?
• What are the on-going developments in establishing the necessary infrastructure?
• What would be the effect of introducing gaseous fuels on the automotive industry and the powertrain mix?
• What powertrain systems will be required to run on different sources?

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
2. Research Scope, Objectives, Methodology and Background
3. Definitions and Segmentation
4. Overview of Gaseous Fuel Developments
5. Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications
6. External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints—Gaseous Fuel Developments in the Transportation Market
7. Scenario Analysis
8. Outlook of the Energy Market in Europe
9. Automotive Implications
10. Industry Participant Views
11. Conclusions and Future Outlook
12. Appendix

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