BURLINGTON, Mass., Dec. 4, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- Decision Resources, one of the world's leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that over the next six decades prevalent cases of several diseases that represent commercially important opportunities for drug developers will peak and then decline. The Strategic Insights report entitled Timing Matters: Shifting Opportunities for Drug Developers as Global Populations Age, finds that Germany, Japan and Russia will be the first markets to experience a peak in cases of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, major depressive disorder, age-related macular degeneration and Alzheimer's disease.
The report examines the peak cases phenomenon in key commercial disease markets of Brazil, urban China, Germany, Japan, Russia and the United States, and explores the interaction between population size, demographics and peak cases. Because markets are at different stages of the population aging, peak cases will be reached at different times across markets and diseases.
According to the report, diseases with a higher prevalence in younger populations are more sensitive to the reductive impact of aging populations. For example, prevalent cases of major depressive disorder will decline owing to aging demographics across five of the six markets examined.
"Disease populations — and therefore opportunities for drug developers — will continue to expand for diseases with their highest prevalence in older age-groups. For example, prevalent cases in Alzheimer's disease will increase by more than 800 percent in urban China between 2012 and 2072," said Decision Resources Senior Epidemiologist Donal Minihan, Ph.D. "The United States is largely immune to the peak cases phenomenon because its immigration and reproductive rate will maintain an increasing population with a balanced spread across age-groups."
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SOURCE Decision Resources